1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[mempho]

0z Euro pretty much holds serve with the 12z. Heaviest axis of precip from roughly Marks, MS to roughly Clarksville, TN. Memphis cashes in for 4-8" (W to E) and Nashville is progged for 7".

Sounds like a winner to me! 

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[Clay]

Big swath of snow along the 40 corridor from BNA west.

[mempho]

Big swath of snow along the 40 corridor from BNA west.

Widespread 4-8"?

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[Clay]

Widespread 4-8"?

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If you drew a cone from Eastern Shelby County to Land Between the Lakes, and BNA. That's roughly where 8" plus inches falls at 10:1.

[mempho]

If you drew a cone from Eastern Shelby County to Land Between the Lakes, and BNA. That's roughly where 7" plus inches falls at 10:1.

Very nice!

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[paderryb]

I think I live under a warm bubble. Last year there was 4 inches of snow just 7 miles from my house and I got a dusting. It seems to always miss me by a hair. 

[Clay]

Obviously any 10:1 clown map is not going take into account ground conditions. With that scenario, you can probably take 3/4 of that total to get the realistic number.

[MemphisJDJ]

Do you honestly believe 10:1 will occur here?  I was thinking maybe 8:1 at least at 1st.

[Clint]

I'm curious when MEG will issue WSW. Their confidence should be high especially after tonight's 0Z runs.

[Kevin Terry]

I'm curious when MEG will issue WSW. Their confidence should be high especially after tonight's 0Z runs.

Almost certainly with the AM package

[MemphisJDJ]

I think I live under a warm bubble. Last year there was 4 inches of snow just 7 miles from my house and I got a dusting. It seems to always miss me by a hair. 

If euro model verifies I think you could see at least a couple of inches

[Charles L.]

6z NAM continues the idea of a very sharp gradient across middle TN. This will be a feast or famine snowstorm it seems (which has been the idea all along, we just didn't know where that gradient would set up)
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[mempho]

Almost certainly with the AM package

After sleeping for a bit,  I have to say I will be a little disappointed if they don't go with the blizzard warning:

 1) I do think it's a good call to go with (considering guidance)  and

 2) how many times are we ever going to be in this position again?





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[MemphisJDJ]

Looks as if LZK is sticking with this in their updated grids this morning.

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[Kevin Terry]

After sleeping for a bit,  I have to say I will be a little disappointed if they don't go with the blizzard warning:

 1) I do think it's a good call to go with (considering guidance)  and

 2) how many times are we ever going to be in this position again?





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I don't know why I'm still awake first of all lol...

But if worst came to worst you can always upgrade. That actually almost happened in March 2008. Yes there are signals especially on the GFS that wind gusts could near criteria but its such a gutsy call to make honestly.