1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Curt]

surface wind gusts during the snow hours for memphis metro

[rbowman]

I am going to kill time till 0z suits by watching Tennessee kick vandy butt in basketball 8 clock

How did that work out for you?

[justinmundie]

There is honestly barely any difference between the 0z GFS and the 12z Euro from a surface perspective. Euro seems to be catching onto the dynamic cooling where the GFS and NAM are not. The dynamic cooling may not happen, and the Euro might be wrong. But I don't know that BNA needs a further south track as much as we need this thing to create some cold air like the euro is showing.

Crossing my fingers before I try to sleep. Can't stay up for the Euro. Got a breakfast meeting at 8:15.

[Kevin Terry]

12km NAM Bufkit

MEM... 4.5" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts
JBR... .49" ZR .2" IP 1.6" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
Between LIT and MEM... 4.3" SN - Max sustained wind 19kts
MKL... 1.8" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
BNA... 3.2" SN - Max sustained wind 14kts
CKV... 5.2" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts

[BRUCE]

12km NAM Bufkit

MEM... 4.5" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts
JBR... .49" ZR .2" IP 1.6" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
Between LIT and MEM... 4.3" SN - Max sustained wind 19kts
MKL... 1.8" SN - Max sustained wind 20kts
BNA... 3.2" SN - Max sustained wind 14kts
CKV... 5.2" SN - Max sustained wind 18kts

really thanks still bud

[Heath22]

So this is a Miller B right? What makes the energy transfer instead of the first low staying intact?

[StormNine]

From the NWS Glossary

A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:
Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

[Kevin Terry]

GFS Bufkit

MEM... 6.3" SN - Max sustained wind 28kts
JBR... .39" ZR 7.0" SN - Max sustained wind 31kts
Between LIT and MEM... .07" ZR 6.4" SN - Max sustained wind 27kts
MKL... 2.7" SN - Max sustained wind 21kts
BNA... 1.8" SN - Max sustained wind 11kts
CKV... 11.2" SN - Max sustained wind 13kts

[Kevin Terry]

00z GEFS members look vastly...vastly improved vs the 12 and 18z...

[Clay]

Euro is rollin'.. updates coming in shortly.

[MemphisJDJ]

Meanwhile... the SPC has an Enhanced Risk across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1453355492803

[memphishogfan]

Am I seeing this right, is the Euro throwing the low out to the east coast.

[Cody]

Patiently waiting.......


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[Clay]

Coastal transfer happens a bit more quickly on the Euro versus the GFS. This may be a more favorable run for Middle TN snow wise.

[draelius]

0z Euro pretty much holds serve with the 12z. Heaviest axis of precip from roughly Marks, MS to roughly Clarksville, TN. Memphis cashes in for 4-8" (W to E) and Nashville is progged for 7".