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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265354 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #405 on: January 20, 2016, 08:56:27 PM »
Well the EURO is south of GFS.  The NAM is most north?  So the GFS has correct track?

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #406 on: January 20, 2016, 08:56:38 PM »
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?
if there ever was such thing... we are entering the nams deadly zone
Come on severe wx season...

Online snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #407 on: January 20, 2016, 08:56:55 PM »
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?

4k Nam this close has to be taken seriously. 

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #408 on: January 20, 2016, 08:57:10 PM »
The NAM is certainly not in the top tier...but we are getting within 48 hours when it starts performing better. But it's just the first model run tonight...the GFS has an entirely different scenario. Have to see what it does tonight.

Thanks

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #409 on: January 20, 2016, 08:58:41 PM »
4k Nam this close has to be taken seriously.

Hard to take the 4km NAM seriously at least when it isn't capable of properly resolving a deformation axis.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #410 on: January 20, 2016, 08:58:52 PM »
If I was a betting man , I say the GFS does not change that much and we will really be confused. ::scratch::

Offline Hank W

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #411 on: January 20, 2016, 08:59:49 PM »
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?
It seems to be good within 48 hours or so at sniffing out trends. Not always, but has been the first to pick up on changes in the short term in times past.

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #412 on: January 20, 2016, 09:00:27 PM »
WPCs surface low track from this afternoon....

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Offline SuperCell

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #413 on: January 20, 2016, 09:00:37 PM »
The most snow I have seen since 2010 is 2 inches. If I get that it will be the best Storm in 5 years.  I am jealous of South Central KY the last few...
Formerly known as VandyMachine...Up on the Highland Rim, where the weather is always more interesting!

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #414 on: January 20, 2016, 09:00:59 PM »
It seems to be good within 48 hours or so at sniffing out trends. Not always, but has been the first to pick up on changes in the short term in times past.

It is worth noting it was that infamous 21z run of the SREF...then the 0z NAM...that started changing the tune on the President's Day storm last year.

Offline dave

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #415 on: January 20, 2016, 09:01:21 PM »



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 09:08:10 PM by dave »
Life’s too short to stop and smell the roses.

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #416 on: January 20, 2016, 09:01:32 PM »
NAM really cut out some snowfall totals in the Mid-Atlantic too

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #417 on: January 20, 2016, 09:01:47 PM »

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #418 on: January 20, 2016, 09:03:18 PM »
Oz RGEM, very NAM-ish. Maybe even a little more bullish for Memphis, proper, with a deformation zone setting up along the MS River vs the Arkansas Delta.

Offline Drifter49

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #419 on: January 20, 2016, 09:06:07 PM »
Been grilling, drinking and taking a break from things and man things have been jumping the last few hours in here. Don't have anything to add, but just want to say I hope everyone on the board cashes in. I know there's a huge boom or bust potential as in any winter weather event, but hopefully we can all get at least a decent snow out of this, whether it's 3-4 inches or a foot plus. I raise my drink to all the contributors and say this one's for yall LOL...Good luck everyone  ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::popcorn:: ::yum::
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

 

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