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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265983 times)

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Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #390 on: January 20, 2016, 08:43:23 PM »
Thought it varied per office for the timing

Moreso it varies based on confidence. If an office is highly confident...you can issue out to 36 hours. If not...you can basically holdoff until 12 hours or even real-time if it's ongoing (it would be an upgrade from an advisory...in that situation of course)

Offline Trevor

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #391 on: January 20, 2016, 08:43:46 PM »
4k NAM on Weatherbell (not sure if it's rendering differently on other sites so I thought I'd share)


Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #392 on: January 20, 2016, 08:44:12 PM »

Offline Trevor

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #393 on: January 20, 2016, 08:45:28 PM »
Unreal.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #394 on: January 20, 2016, 08:48:22 PM »
So, the 4km cuts Sumner counties totals halfway through the county. Northern sections see 6" while southern sections see an inch at most.

 ::bangingheadintowall:: the SumnerSevereWx page would be fun to follow if that happened!
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http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

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Offline Hunter_McDonald

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #395 on: January 20, 2016, 08:48:50 PM »
Kevin,

Do you still think we have a high bust porential? What about you Trevor?

Offline Clay

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #396 on: January 20, 2016, 08:49:40 PM »
Although this is a very plausible track, it is also an outlying solution. Need the GFS and euro to get on board until Nashvillians  starts to worry.

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #397 on: January 20, 2016, 08:50:31 PM »
SREF plume mean went down for BNA on the 21z....now this.  Hmm. ::scratch::

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #398 on: January 20, 2016, 08:50:46 PM »
Kevin,

Do you still think we have a high bust porential? What about you Trevor?

I have no idea. Ask me after the GFS lol. I suppose with the NAM N/W and the GFS S/E by definition there remains a great spread and thus...bust potential.

Offline Matt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #399 on: January 20, 2016, 08:50:55 PM »
Outlier? Perhaps. If the GFS and subsequently the Euro trend like the NAM, game over.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #400 on: January 20, 2016, 08:52:21 PM »


Just to show the challenges the local NWS offices face look at the gradient shown in the PAH CWA.  Just a 25-30 mile shift could be the difference between a double digit snow and barely reaching an advisory level event according to that run.   Other model runs some significant gradients although not quite that pronounced.  The gradients are absolute nightmares for forecasters.   

Offline Trevor

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #401 on: January 20, 2016, 08:53:03 PM »
So if everything holds, WSW by morning? Or do you think they'll wait?

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #402 on: January 20, 2016, 08:54:00 PM »
Although this is a very plausible track, it is also an outlying solution. Need the GFS and euro to get on board until Nashvillians  starts to worry.

Clay you nailed it. The real solution might be in the middle somewhere.  ::fingerscrossed::

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #403 on: January 20, 2016, 08:54:09 PM »
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #404 on: January 20, 2016, 08:56:04 PM »
Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?

The NAM is certainly not in the top tier...but we are getting within 48 hours when it starts performing better. But it's just the first model run tonight...the GFS has an entirely different scenario. Have to see what it does tonight.

 

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