1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Matthew]

Did anyone see Ron Howes?  My sister just texted "he said Nashville east is all rain and only a trace of snow"?  Really?
How does a WSW even get issued if that is what happens.

[Susan]

18z RGEM...

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

I may be wrong, but I don't believe this model was close to correct for today's storm. At this time frame.

[justinmundie]

Did anyone see Ron Howes?  My sister just texted "he said Nashville east is all rain and only a trace of snow"?  Really?
How does a WSW even get issued if that is what happens.

Southeast of Nashville that's certainly a possibility. But he's definitely not using any current model guidance that I've seen.

[Kevin Terry]

I may be wrong, but I don't believe this model was close to correct for today's storm. At this time frame.

It wasn't. It performed pretty horrible actually. Doesn't mean it will on this one necessarily...of course.

[Dyersburg Weather]

SREF plumes are starting to go up. There is a 3 inch mean for all of west Tn and goes up to 4 inches for BNA.

[utvols235]

So it's not worth getting excited in Knoxville unlike the rest of the state?

[Eric]

Did anyone see Ron Howes?  My sister just texted "he said Nashville east is all rain and only a trace of snow"?  Really?
How does a WSW even get issued if that is what happens.

I'm not sure WTF Ron is looking at.

[Matthew]

Southeast of Nashville that's certainly a possibility. But he's definitely not using any current model guidance that I've seen.

I told her I have no idea what he is looking at.  She said he said "only .2 to .5 of snow for Nashville"?  I understand being conservative but really?

[Matthew]

I'm not sure WTF Ron is looking at.

Maybe he runs the snow dome?

[CT_Yankee]

Wasn't there a storm last year where we were looking at models 2 days ahead showing 6+ inches while Ron Howes said around 1", and at the last minute he ended up being right?

[Thundersnow]

Fresh OHX graphic:



Seems a bit on the low end... 

Considering what the models are suggesting, it does.

But, I can't fault them.  I even told family today that models are showing the potential for amazing accumulations, but I think we'll end up with a couple of inches.

I'm obviously rooting for what the models are suggesting.  But, cumulative experience leads me otherwise.

[Eric]

Wasn't there a storm last year where we were looking at models 2 days ahead showing 6+ inches while Ron Howes said around 1", and at the last minute he ended up being right?

I understand making your own forecast, but to differ SO MUCH from OHX?  I don't know,man.....

[CT_Yankee]

I'm obviously rooting for what the models are suggesting.  But, cumulative experience leads me otherwise.

^^ This.

[Kevin Terry]

Preparing myself for the 0z runs to be a mass disaster for the MEM contingent if nobody else. GFS/GEFS just has me worried.

[Susan]

GFS/GEFS just has me worried.

The more excited the folks on this board become the more cautious I get. 
Been here, and been crushed.