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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 264944 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #255 on: January 20, 2016, 04:07:49 PM »
18z RGEM...

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #256 on: January 20, 2016, 04:08:12 PM »
So, the 12Z runs were magical, while the 18Z runs have thrown in some doubts.

Hopefully, we'll have more confidence in something, for better or worse, after the 0Zs tonights.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #257 on: January 20, 2016, 04:09:20 PM »
Not too worried - yet. GFS has heavy precip in the deformation band at Memphis- doesn't show as snow since temps are 33-34. I bet that's probably snow. At least it didn't show it disappearing lol

Well...not quite. The GFS's precip in the MEM that's heaviest is 3-6z...that's not associated with the deform band and before the dynamics are in play to changeover the precip. The deform band is toward 12z....which is much much lighter and also mostly SE of the MEM area entirely.

Offline Trevor

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #258 on: January 20, 2016, 04:09:44 PM »
Had to do a double take...my grids were just updated. Can't say I've seen these accumulation forecasts for a long time...

Quote
Thursday Night Rain before midnight, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday Snow. High near 32. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #259 on: January 20, 2016, 04:15:07 PM »
Again...will note this QPF panel does seem a bit suspicious and may imply some feedback issues...which would have implications on upstream QPF (which is N/E). So it may be a mix of technical and meteorological issues for what the 18z GFS depicts.

Still...doesn't help my confidence...especially if you're on the potential NW edge of the deformation axis with very little room for error to miss out with even slight jogs S/E.


Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #260 on: January 20, 2016, 04:19:08 PM »
Had to do a double take...my grids were just updated. Can't say I've seen these accumulation forecasts for a long time...

MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #261 on: January 20, 2016, 04:22:55 PM »
Fresh OHX graphic:



Seems a bit on the low end...  ::coffee::
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #262 on: January 20, 2016, 04:23:58 PM »
MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol

Kevin what does WREG use as their in house model ? RPM ?

Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #263 on: January 20, 2016, 04:24:20 PM »


There's your 18z nam totals for the entire event

Offline Sbeagles

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #264 on: January 20, 2016, 04:26:28 PM »
Ol Lisa Patton was happy to go all in. Said west of I-65 would see more than 3" and that number would probably go up... Lol I'm rolling with Lisa for better or worse.

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #265 on: January 20, 2016, 04:27:49 PM »
Fresh OHX graphic:



Seems a bit on the low end...  ::coffee::

Well with the rain & ground temps. 

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #266 on: January 20, 2016, 04:28:38 PM »
Kevin what does WREG use as their in house model ? RPM ?

You can input any model into that computer and show it but most of the time they just show the RPM...so most likely.

Offline WXHD

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #267 on: January 20, 2016, 04:32:31 PM »
Fresh OHX graphic:



Seems a bit on the low end...  ::coffee::


Counter to my wish casting. OHX has done pretty good being on the low end the past couple of years. They can always revise up but, 3 will certainly get people's attention.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #268 on: January 20, 2016, 04:33:30 PM »
You can input any model into that computer and show it but most of the time they just show the RPM...so most likely.
Just watched the update at 4:15. It looked like one of us ran the model.  ;D Was absolutely perfect for all. Had Memphis dead center of deform band with it expanding as it goes east.

Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #269 on: January 20, 2016, 04:34:30 PM »
Here's your 18z nam simulated radar

It's getting its act together right over Memphis. Could be bust could be boom. Certainly areas around Jackson could rock it as it really gets its act together. Look at the 32 line carefully. Obviously 850's are crashing so might be precip type issues. My experience with most of these types of events are a quick change from rain to snow - not sleet

 

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