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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 264263 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #240 on: January 20, 2016, 03:56:55 PM »
Seems to me the "jog north" is something to be leery of.  Let's just hope it stays put and is not a trend...am I right?

Right - I don't think it was a significant jog to the north... and it is the 18Z (famous last words, however  ;) ).

Offline Andy

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #241 on: January 20, 2016, 03:57:11 PM »
Can any of you guys make sense of the forecast discussion from MRX for East Tennessee? I live in Erwin, bordering the NC mountains. Sounds like we might stay all frozen precip here. I would think todays snowfall would cause temps to come in lower correct? We have had 5 inches here today.
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Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #242 on: January 20, 2016, 03:57:46 PM »
Seems to me the "jog north" is something to be leery of.  Let's just hope it stays put and is not a trend...am I right?
GFS accum map has actually held pretty steady today. Well, except for that snow hole it put on Memphis on the 18Z.

Offline Hunter_McDonald

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #243 on: January 20, 2016, 03:58:54 PM »
No good for MEM that's for sure. Pretty awful run actually

Why was it such a bad run for MEM?

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #244 on: January 20, 2016, 04:00:57 PM »
Why was it such a bad run for MEM?

It has no snow lol. Deform band struggles to really get going until N/E (and even then it looks nothing like the NAM/ECMWF). This has actually been persistent GFS problem and it continues to give me real hits on confidence of the truly higher-end stuff...and especially has me worried in the MEM area that we are far from a lock.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #245 on: January 20, 2016, 04:01:51 PM »
Well, except for that snow hole it put on Memphis on the 18Z.

Maybe, it suffered from the same data issue as the 18Z NAM... which lost part of the deformation band for some reason.

Offline Hunter_McDonald

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #246 on: January 20, 2016, 04:03:13 PM »
It has no snow lol. Deform band struggles to really get going until N/E (and even then it looks nothing like the NAM/ECMWF). This has actually been persistent GFS problem and it continues to give me real hits on confidence of the truly higher-end stuff...and especially has me worried in the MEM area that we are far from a lock.

THROW IT OUT!!

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #247 on: January 20, 2016, 04:03:22 PM »
Why was it such a bad run for MEM?

The 18z GFS sucked for almost everyone. Throw it out.  ::rofl::


Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #248 on: January 20, 2016, 04:03:57 PM »
Not too worried - yet. GFS has heavy precip in the deformation band at Memphis- doesn't show as snow since temps are 33-34. I bet that's probably snow. At least it didn't show it disappearing lol

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #249 on: January 20, 2016, 04:04:13 PM »
Not buying the 18z GFS clown map depth gradients either...

Switchover in Murfreesboro looks to be between H45-48. 



Skew-T confirms switchover at H48:



There's another 12-16 hours of qpf falling with temps below 32F and all we muster is 2"?  Not buying it.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 04:10:11 PM by Eric »
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #250 on: January 20, 2016, 04:05:53 PM »
The 18z GFS sucked for almost everyone. Throw it out.  ::rofl::


Look at eastern WV and western VA and how the highest mountains have significantly less snow, which meteorologically makes 0 sense. Throw that run away.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #251 on: January 20, 2016, 04:05:59 PM »
The GFS initialized with 3" snow depth here. As nice as that would be, it isn't true. The clowns are probably way wrong.
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Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #252 on: January 20, 2016, 04:07:10 PM »


Here's precip at 36- couldn't ask for a better track for snow. Darn 850 temps better cooperate

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #253 on: January 20, 2016, 04:07:20 PM »
Maybe, it suffered from the same data issue as the 18Z NAM... which lost part of the deformation band for some reason.

No that's a definite different issue that lies within the 4km NAM's technical specifications. If that was a theme in that model itself it would have been hinted at in the 12km version which it clearly wasn't. I think the GFS's issue in general is it doesn't want to keep the 500 mb low closed and reopens it as it moves out of MS. Been an off-and-on issue for several runs. Also...there might be some feedback issues at play.

Either way...while I am saying throw out the 4km NAM...I wouldn't throw out the GFS because there are meteorological reasons that we could be seeing what is being depicted. Therefore...it is a plausible scenario. Especially if you are further S/W...I have to be hesitant to call this thing a lock yet...and definitely don't go crazy with these blockbuster numbers that the NAM/ECMWF want to insist on just yet.

Offline CookevilleWeatherGuy

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #254 on: January 20, 2016, 04:07:48 PM »
Can any of you guys make sense of the forecast discussion from MRX for East Tennessee? I live in Erwin, bordering the NC mountains. Sounds like we might stay all frozen precip here. I would think todays snowfall would cause temps to come in lower correct? We have had 5 inches here today.

Hi Andy, It appears we will all warm on Thursday for a while but it definitely looks like you will drop back to below freezing on Thursday evening. The NWS might be a little aggressive with your high of 43 considering your 5" of snow on the ground. We'll see....get ready for more accumulating snow late Friday and Saturday!
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