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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266187 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #210 on: January 20, 2016, 03:00:44 PM »
It's not even showing sleet. It's showing nothing! LOL


Yeah. I was using 32k NAM Simulated and 4k NAM clown. You get what Im saying. LOL
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 03:08:09 PM by Dyersburg Weather »

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #211 on: January 20, 2016, 03:02:44 PM »
New Zone Forecast...

Quote
THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN 

CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET 
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 
20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.   
FRIDAY...WINDY. SNOW IN THE MORNING 
THEN SNOW LIKELY IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
30S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. CHANCE 
OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.   

Offline Matt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #212 on: January 20, 2016, 03:04:17 PM »
Holy smokes. This could be the biggest snow in my lifetime.

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #213 on: January 20, 2016, 03:07:18 PM »

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #214 on: January 20, 2016, 03:08:07 PM »
OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.

I don't blame them...I'd say 0-5" and the 5" could be rain or snow...because well Nashville.  Just issue a flash flood watch and winter storm watch.  Cover all bases. 

Offline NashRugger

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #215 on: January 20, 2016, 03:09:07 PM »
I don't blame them...I'd say 0-5" and the 5" could be rain or snow...because well Nashville.  Just issue a flash flood watch and winter storm watch.  Cover all bases.
And a wind advisory, I can see us hitting wind gust criteria.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #216 on: January 20, 2016, 03:11:35 PM »
That zone forecast would qualify for a Blizzard Warning. ::wow:: ::faint::
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Offline Brad

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #217 on: January 20, 2016, 03:12:15 PM »
Paul's latest blog. https://4warnweather.wordpress.com

My parents are flying out of BNA Friday at 1pm to visit my sister/brother in law in Europe and my stubborn dad doesn't see any need to be concerned about flights (wait for it...) based on intellicast.

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #218 on: January 20, 2016, 03:13:07 PM »
And a wind advisory, I can see us hitting wind gust criteria.

Weenie Suicide Watch for the counties that get dry slotted.  If it ends up being up the 65 corridor to Davidson...the watch goes to a Warning. 

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #219 on: January 20, 2016, 03:17:26 PM »
So, you know the pest has to ask. Is there anything the 4K NAM could be picking up on, with what looks like erosion of the NW flank of the deformation band? Energy transfer?

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #220 on: January 20, 2016, 03:18:03 PM »
I leave Memphis and move to the where the sweet spot had been, Memphis gets hit with blizzard.

Weather Weenie mode in full blown hacked off.

Offline CookevilleWeatherGuy

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #221 on: January 20, 2016, 03:18:50 PM »
OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.

You also have to remember they are forecasting for a coverage area that ranges from 300 feet above sea level to 2000 feet above sea level.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #222 on: January 20, 2016, 03:19:37 PM »
So, you know the pest has to ask. Is there anything the 4K NAM could be picking up on, with what looks like erosion of the NW flank of the deformation band? Energy transfer?

Just bad data. With a 996 mb low in NW AL, there is no chance precip isn't there for northern MS and west TN. I don't think it is meteorologically possible for it to look like that image.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #223 on: January 20, 2016, 03:19:56 PM »
Next up... 18Z GFS (to commence in about 10 minutes or so).

Offline CookevilleWeatherGuy

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #224 on: January 20, 2016, 03:21:02 PM »
Next up... 18Z GFS (to commence in about 10 minutes or so).

Watch it come up with a solution that completely misses us or is a total rain event at 34 :)
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