1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Dyersburg Weather]

It's not even showing sleet. It's showing nothing! LOL

Yeah. I was using 32k NAM Simulated and 4k NAM clown. You get what Im saying. LOL

[Kevin Terry]

New Zone Forecast...

THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN 
A 
CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET 
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 
20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.   
FRIDAY...WINDY. SNOW IN THE MORNING 
THEN SNOW LIKELY IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
30S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. CHANCE 
OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.   

[Matt]

Holy smokes. This could be the biggest snow in my lifetime.

[Kevin Terry]

Great blog from Erik P at MemphisWeather.Net...

http://blog.memphisweather.net/2016/01/significant-winter-storm-likely-on.html

[snowdog]

OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.

I don't blame them...I'd say 0-5" and the 5" could be rain or snow...because well Nashville.  Just issue a flash flood watch and winter storm watch.  Cover all bases. 

[NashRugger]

I don't blame them...I'd say 0-5" and the 5" could be rain or snow...because well Nashville.  Just issue a flash flood watch and winter storm watch.  Cover all bases.

And a wind advisory, I can see us hitting wind gust criteria.

[Charles L.]

That zone forecast would qualify for a Blizzard Warning.

[Brad]

Paul's latest blog. https://4warnweather.wordpress.com

My parents are flying out of BNA Friday at 1pm to visit my sister/brother in law in Europe and my stubborn dad doesn't see any need to be concerned about flights (wait for it...) based on intellicast.

[snowdog]

And a wind advisory, I can see us hitting wind gust criteria.

Weenie Suicide Watch for the counties that get dry slotted.  If it ends up being up the 65 corridor to Davidson...the watch goes to a Warning. 

[draelius]

So, you know the pest has to ask. Is there anything the 4K NAM could be picking up on, with what looks like erosion of the NW flank of the deformation band? Energy transfer?

[memphishogfan]

I leave Memphis and move to the where the sweet spot had been, Memphis gets hit with blizzard.

Weather Weenie mode in full blown hacked off.

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.

You also have to remember they are forecasting for a coverage area that ranges from 300 feet above sea level to 2000 feet above sea level.

[Charles L.]

So, you know the pest has to ask. Is there anything the 4K NAM could be picking up on, with what looks like erosion of the NW flank of the deformation band? Energy transfer?

Just bad data. With a 996 mb low in NW AL, there is no chance precip isn't there for northern MS and west TN. I don't think it is meteorologically possible for it to look like that image.

[Thundersnow]

Next up... 18Z GFS (to commence in about 10 minutes or so).

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

Next up... 18Z GFS (to commence in about 10 minutes or so).

Watch it come up with a solution that completely misses us or is a total rain event at 34°