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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265323 times)

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Offline Drifter49

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #195 on: January 20, 2016, 02:44:15 PM »
I think you will do okay drift, that run had me on the edge of the good stuff myself. I think were okay right now. This thing probably isn't through with it's shifting yet if history is any indication. It might not be big shifts but we don't need much of one. This could still be a good one for most if not all of us. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

May the force be with us ::snowman::
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #196 on: January 20, 2016, 02:45:20 PM »
4km NAM snowfall totals. 15" up my way? yes please!

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Offline CookevilleWeatherGuy

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #197 on: January 20, 2016, 02:45:49 PM »
To quote Pat Benatar = This will be a "heart breaker, dream maker, love taker, don't you mess around with me. You're a heart breaker."  ::shaking_finger:: ::snowman:: ::scratch:: ::rofl::
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #198 on: January 20, 2016, 02:49:26 PM »
4km NAM snowfall totals. 15" up my way? yes please!

The gap in snow totals in west Tn is caused by sleet showing up on the 4K NAM in the deform band. IMO this would be snow and if this particular run verified most everyone would be happy.

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #199 on: January 20, 2016, 02:51:21 PM »
For those wondering about those 4k totals in W TN...



I'll bet a large sum of money that does NOT happen like that...so the deform band just disappears for a few hours as 996 mb low is cranking in NW AL?

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #200 on: January 20, 2016, 02:52:32 PM »
The gap in snow totals in west Tn is caused by sleet showing up on the 4K NAM in the deform band. IMO this would be snow and if this particular run verified most everyone would be happy.
Tell it like it is Dyer!!!!  ::applause:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #201 on: January 20, 2016, 02:52:50 PM »
4km NAM snowfall totals. 15" up my way? yes please!

Approaching all time record totals for Davidson County there... I see a little piece of yellow there, which is 18".

Again, just a clown map not to take literally... but, wow...

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #202 on: January 20, 2016, 02:53:20 PM »
The gap in snow totals in west Tn is caused by sleet showing up on the 4K NAM in the deform band. IMO this would be snow and if this particular run verified most everyone would be happy.

It's not even showing sleet. It's showing nothing! LOL

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #203 on: January 20, 2016, 02:53:33 PM »
FYI - Tidbits accum maps seem to be screwed up.

Here's the 10:1 from pivotal, which also seems odd with no snow back towards memphis.

Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #204 on: January 20, 2016, 02:54:24 PM »
For those wondering about those 4k totals in W TN...



I'll bet a large sum of money that does NOT happen like that...so the deform band just disappears for a few hours as 996 mb low is cranking in NW AL?

 ::rofl::
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Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #205 on: January 20, 2016, 02:54:58 PM »
Approaching all time record totals for Davidson County there... I see a little piece of yellow there, which is 18".

Again, just a clown map not to take literally... but, wow...

To have the Hi-Res Nam, Euro, Euro Ens and GFS Ens all showing a big hit for BNA?  I feel like we have been here before...less than a year ago.  Let's do it again.   ::guitar::

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #206 on: January 20, 2016, 02:55:26 PM »
FYI - Tidbits accum maps seem to be screwed up.

Here's the 10:1 from pivotal, which also seems odd with no snow back towards memphis.



See my post above. the 4k nam just dissipates the deform band for a few hours. Not exactly how meteorology works in such situations...

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #207 on: January 20, 2016, 02:57:24 PM »
OHX:

Quote
CURRENTLY UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
NOW EXITING TO OUR EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GEARING UP IN
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW THEN TRACKS UP THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY WHILE CLOSED 850
MBAR LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER. SOMEWHAT RARE TO
SEE CLOSED 700 MBAR LOW THIS FAR SOUTH BUT WE HAVE ONE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...GOOD DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ACROSS TENNESSEE.
SO EVERYTHING STACKING UP FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY AND
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #208 on: January 20, 2016, 02:58:08 PM »
OHX's WSW: "1-5in with locally higher amounts."

I swear, their conservatism, even in the face of model output showing widespread at least 3in, is just hilarious.


Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #209 on: January 20, 2016, 02:58:20 PM »
MEG...

Quote
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE 
EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT DOUBLE DISTURBANCES SEEN IN THE ROCKIES 
AND HIGH PLAINS. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE 
AND DEEPEN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS BEFORE LIFTING 
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. ON THE SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE WILL FORM IN LOUISIANA AND TRACK TO WESTERN NORTH 
CAROLINA. THIS TRACK WILL INITIALLY ALLOW MODERATELY WARM AND 
MOIST AIR TO REACH THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE 
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONLY THE FAR NORTH WILL BE IN QUESTION 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY BE 
FREEZING RAIN. A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LATE 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS 
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO ALABAMA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT ANY 
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION 
WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 
COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C. A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF SLEET APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE ELEVATED WARM 
LAYER ERODES. FORECAST SKEWT'S SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO WEST TENNESSEE 
ALONG THE 500MB LOW TRACK. THIS AXIS POTENTIALLY COULD CREATE 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A HIGH 
MOISTURE CONTENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS 
MAY CREATE DOWN TREE LIMBS/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH 
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MORE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. HAVEN'T HAD TO 
MUCH TO TIME TO CHECK FOR POTENTIAL CSI FORMING...BUT SEEING THE 
MODELS TRANSITION THE UPPER TROUGH FROM OPEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER 
THE ARKLAMISS CSI WOULD BE FAVORABLE JUST TO IT'S NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL 
RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSNOW WOULD 
BE THE RESULT. THE STORM WILL LIFT OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS 
SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE 
LOW AND MID 20S...WITH WINDCHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE 
NORTH. HAVE REDUCED TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED SNOWPACK 
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT SUN HOWEVER SHOULD START THE 
THAWING PROCESS. 

 

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