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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 264957 times)

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Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #150 on: January 20, 2016, 01:00:54 PM »
Just looked at wind fields - dang winds just under the GFS but gusting to 40 at kmem.

Offline kristin

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #151 on: January 20, 2016, 01:07:44 PM »
Crossville north does well on the latest Euro (6+"), higher amounts north and lesser amounts south. All models showing at least borderline WSW criteria for the upper Cumberland though.

Awesome!  Thank you!  ::snowman::

Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #152 on: January 20, 2016, 01:12:01 PM »

I'm on mobile. Euro looks colder? BNA looks like it goes to snow quickly? Someone help

Hate to break it to you Mundie... There's nothing anyone can do to help you...


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Online StormNine

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #153 on: January 20, 2016, 01:24:16 PM »
This forecast will a tough one for the PAH and MEG CWA's.  With the southward trend the northwestern edge of the band of heavy snow will be over these CWA's more than likely.  It should be noted that it pretty much goes from all to nothing with this band as well so we will likely see situations where 1 location had a dusting to an inch and another one 20-30 miles down the road may have 4 or more inches of snow on the ground.    A very sharp gradient which means that a 50 mile shift either way could put someone who was in or the near the sweet spot on the outside looking in and vice-versa.   

Offline RobD

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #154 on: January 20, 2016, 01:28:24 PM »
I've just looked at the ensembles for the storm totals and it looks like it's sagging south enough now where the Louisville to Cincinnati corridor isn't going to get crushed, but that southern KY up 65 is going to receive significant snow. Timing wise: what time do you think the I 65 corridor is going to start getting snow that will affect driving on the interstate. Thinking about leaving for Cinci Thursday night instead of Friday morning because if we wait till Friday it will be a no go.

Offline Vols1

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #155 on: January 20, 2016, 01:30:10 PM »
Are those snow totals like 15" realistic or like a clown map?

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #156 on: January 20, 2016, 01:31:47 PM »
Are those snow totals like 15" realistic or like a clown map?

Clown totals.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Online StormNine

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #157 on: January 20, 2016, 01:33:51 PM »
I've just looked at the ensembles for the storm totals and it looks like it's sagging south enough now where the Louisville to Cincinnati corridor isn't going to get crushed, but that southern KY up 65 is going to receive significant snow. Timing wise: what time do you think the I 65 corridor is going to start getting snow that will affect driving on the interstate. Thinking about leaving for Cinci Thursday night instead of Friday morning because if we wait till Friday it will be a no go.

Timing is one of the things that is quite a challenge. Some models don't show a changeover to snow or a wintry mix till wee morning Friday and some start Thursday night from about Bowling Green and north. I would even think about trying for late Thursday morning-early afternoon if you can just to be safe. 

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #158 on: January 20, 2016, 01:33:58 PM »
Are those snow totals like 15" realistic or like a clown map?

Clown totals...and nobody should take it literally. But...the realistics of this kind of setup ... are double digit totals possible if not likely somewhere...even if localized? The logical answer is yes

Offline harlequin

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #159 on: January 20, 2016, 01:34:10 PM »
WSW issued by MEG.

Text:
Quote
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...

.AN INTENSIFYING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
AND SOME THUNDER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES. THE STORM WILL LIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-210600-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.160122T0600Z-160123T0000Z/
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-BENTON TN-LAUDERDALE-
TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...
HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...RIPLEY MS...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...
SENATOBIA...BOONEVILLE...CLARKSDALE...MARKS. ..BATESVILLE...
OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...FULTON...CHARLE STON...
WATER VALLEY...COFFEEVILLE...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...HOUSTON...
OKOLONA...AMORY...ABERDEEN...TIPTONVILLE...U NION CITY...MARTIN...
DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MIL AN...HUNTINGDON...
CAMDEN...RIPLEY TN...COVINGTON...BROWNSVILLE...ALAMO...JACKS ON...
HENDERSON...LEXINGTON...PARSONS...DECATURVIL LE...BARTLETT...
GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLIN GTON...SOMERVILLE...
OAKLAND...BOLIVAR...SELMER...SAVANNAH
133 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES.

* TIMING...12AM CST FRIDAY MORNING TO 6PM CST FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 01:35:56 PM by harlequin »

Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #160 on: January 20, 2016, 01:38:23 PM »

Offline RobD

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #161 on: January 20, 2016, 01:38:50 PM »
Timing is one of the things that is quite a challenge. Some models don't show a changeover to snow or a wintry mix till wee morning Friday and some start Thursday night from about Bowling Green and north. I would even think about trying for late Thursday morning-early afternoon if you can just to be safe.

Thanks StormNine.

Sadly that's not an option. And it's to go to a memorial service, otherwise I'd just cancel now. The models that run later today have 3 hour ranges, no? I'm think we'll make the go/no go decision by 10pm tonight since others traveling with us have to come up from AL.

Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #162 on: January 20, 2016, 01:40:22 PM »
Watches for the entire MEG CWA. I would say less confidence from Jonesboro to Dyersburg northwestward. Cant believe Im saying south of Jonesboro and D'burg for once lol

Online StormNine

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #163 on: January 20, 2016, 01:45:38 PM »
Thanks StormNine.

Sadly that's not an option. And it's to go to a memorial service, otherwise I'd just cancel now. The models that run later today have 3 hour ranges, no? I'm think we'll make the go/no go decision by 10pm tonight since others traveling with us have to come up from AL.

The 00Z GFS runs at or just after that time but by 10pm we would have at least the 00Z Nam and the 18Z runs under our belt.   The NAM runs out to 84 hours in 3 hour ranges and the GFS should be about at that range tonight. 

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #164 on: January 20, 2016, 01:48:18 PM »
Im not complaining. I really appreciate this place but it sure is hard getting use to no chat. Had to stop myself a couple of times on things I should not post. ::rofl::

 

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