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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266173 times)

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Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #120 on: January 20, 2016, 12:15:19 PM »
Looks like heaviest snow axis is from Camden, TN to Bowling Green, KY...roughly.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #121 on: January 20, 2016, 12:16:19 PM »
OMG!!!!!!!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #122 on: January 20, 2016, 12:17:04 PM »
Ok everybody going to urge calm right now. Just chill.

Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #123 on: January 20, 2016, 12:17:51 PM »
Looks like heaviest snow axis is from Camden, TN to Bowling Green, KY...roughly.
Bullseye of 15" on Dickson.

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #124 on: January 20, 2016, 12:18:11 PM »
Euro gears up over central Ar on this run. Text data....

Little Rock - 5"
Jonesboro - 2"
Dyersburg - 3.9"
Olive Branch - 7.7"
Jackson - 13"
Nashville - 14.1"

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #125 on: January 20, 2016, 12:19:40 PM »
Ok everybody going to urge calm right now. Just chill.

Hopefully the ensembles hold serve on the Euro.
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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #126 on: January 20, 2016, 12:21:07 PM »
The progged totals are *probably* a tad high, with the realistic numbers being an inch or two less, given the warm(er) ground temps and previous rainfall.  Just something to watch out for.
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #127 on: January 20, 2016, 12:22:57 PM »
The progged totals are *probably* a tad high, with the realistic numbers being an inch or two less, given the warm(er) ground temps and previous rainfall.  Just something to watch out for.

Im sure it will not be a problem for you to give up an inch of your 12.  8)

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #128 on: January 20, 2016, 12:27:20 PM »
Im sure it will not be a problem for you to give up an inch of your 12.  8)

So long as BNA doesn't end up in the freaking "dry slot" or even on the fringe of it, I will be happy. 

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #129 on: January 20, 2016, 12:27:47 PM »
Let's step back a moment and analyze...

3-hourly data would be nice here and there are a few sources of that I'll be scouring out here shortly. Certainly in this dynamic setup a transition to a period of sleet before heavy snow is possible but how much/long is unknown. 925/850 maps off the Euro show a quick crash in these numbers from unfavorable to extremely favorable levels as heavy precip moves over the area...so much is happening so fast that 6-hourly maps aren't simply handling this precisely.

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #130 on: January 20, 2016, 12:30:56 PM »
Let's step back a moment and analyze...

3-hourly data would be nice here and there are a few sources of that I'll be scouring out here shortly. Certainly in this dynamic setup a transition to a period of sleet before heavy snow is possible but how much/long is unknown. 925/850 maps off the Euro show a quick crash in these numbers from unfavorable to extremely favorable levels as heavy precip moves over the area...so much is happening so fast that 6-hourly maps aren't simply handling this precisely.

00z 4km NAM should help resolve that tonight. 

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #131 on: January 20, 2016, 12:32:46 PM »
Notice what happens in the Euro between hour 48 and 54...the low pressure nearly stalls at the MS/AL border as the explosive 500 mb TROWAL really takes shape in W TN and N MS. This is a classic situation and similar setups have resulted in extraordinarily large snowfall rates/totals. If this verifies there will be some unbelievable things happening in these areas Friday morning.

Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #132 on: January 20, 2016, 12:33:17 PM »
Its always good to go with a percentage rule when looking at these great clown maps. The Euro just showed me with 8 or 9" so I should be happy to get a quarter or a third of that. That would mean 2 or 3 inches. I will order that up and smile about it.  :)

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #133 on: January 20, 2016, 12:36:29 PM »
If this verifies there will be some unbelievable things happening in these areas Friday morning.

This is how I picture it...

Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #134 on: January 20, 2016, 12:38:36 PM »
As a side note, because of the snow bomb shown on the Euro our Sunday warmup is gone. Shows a low of 6 on Sunday morning for Nashville.

 

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