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Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA. Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?
So how are the models reading for Knoxville? What I've seen posted most often looks like we're too warm and the Friday storm will be all rain with us in the mid-40s. But I'm also hearing rumblings about the temperature staying down and all that moisture coming down as snow onto cold ground. I know things will come together better as we get closer but there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus yet.Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA. Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?
The one coming from Nashville might want to rethink it. The one coming from Lynchburg, VA might want to just forget about it.
The euro verbatim had some weird precip hole around memohis lolz. Take with a grain of salt. No reason to think that would happen ESP given the GFS. Both make the phase very close to eastern Arkansas . GFS was 3-6 in Memphis metro, euro 1-2 with more in every direction lol. Too early for specifics. Euro is playing catch up
How's this one looking for the plateau now? Seems like I read somewhere that eastern TN wasn't going to do well?
Here's the reasoning for that for those wondering...especially if you're looking at the snow maps verbatim. At the time the deformation axis is taking shape...it's traveling through the MEM metro and vicinity in that 66 to 72 hour time period. If you look at QPF...there's a healthy (if narrow) swath of liquid precip along and just south of the I-40 corridor. However...at hour 66 temperatures are still above freezing (34 at MEM to be specific) though by 72 it's well below. The result is Euro's clown map refuses to call that area of precip snow...even though with crashing surface temperatures and 850s in the 6 hours that follow...and the very nature of deformation axes...that precip would almost certainly be snow. If you look at Eurowx's snow map...it handles that precipitation axis more efficiently.Granted...the strength and closing of the 500 mb low really benefits areas further N/E as it continues to organize...but Memphis is getting a decent snow if you read between the lines of the Euro. It's similar to the GFS to where things are just getting going though as it moves through this region so the corridor of snowfall is much more narrow with a sharper gradient defined. If a phase could occur even 6 hours earlier...the implications would be pretty great. At this moment I'm cautiously optimistic in *some* snow potential for the metro with this event but there are a lot of uncertainties. Just as a slightly earlier phase could be really beneficial...just as likely at this stage is a later phase or different track that moves everybody's excitement today back to a place of sadness...lol.
