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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265945 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« on: January 19, 2016, 12:24:22 PM »
Let the party begin. All models are in agreement for a potential nice storm for most of Tennessee. Maybe since I started the thread I will get left out and the I40 corridor will cash in.  ::snowman::

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2016, 12:29:23 PM »
If anyone EVER needed a 50-mile jog south it'd be this board.  Every member in Mid TN would get walloped.
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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2016, 12:30:06 PM »
Let's bring this one home! Hoping all score here. Go Dyer Go! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2016, 12:30:43 PM »
So how are the models reading for Knoxville?  What I've seen posted most often looks like we're too warm and the Friday storm will be all rain with us in the mid-40s.  But I'm also hearing rumblings about the temperature staying down and all that moisture coming down as snow onto cold ground.  I know things will come together better as we get closer but there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus yet.

Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA.  Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?

Online Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2016, 12:32:35 PM »

Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA.  Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?
The one coming from Nashville might want to rethink it. The one coming from Lynchburg, VA might want to just forget about it.

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2016, 12:34:43 PM »
So how are the models reading for Knoxville?  What I've seen posted most often looks like we're too warm and the Friday storm will be all rain with us in the mid-40s.  But I'm also hearing rumblings about the temperature staying down and all that moisture coming down as snow onto cold ground.  I know things will come together better as we get closer but there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus yet.

Also, my wife is supposed to have 2 friends coming to Knoxville on Friday night, one from Nashville and another from Lynchburg, VA.  Am I right that travel out of both those places is looking doubtful?

Until Knoxville/East TN gets on the cold side of the low pressure system, all you'll see is rain with some minor accums.  The deformation band just happens to set up over N TN/S KY.  Travel both ways looks highly doubtful, yes.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2016, 12:35:25 PM »
The one coming from Nashville might want to rethink it. The one coming from Lynchburg, VA might want to just forget about it.

Thanks Coach.  I figured the trip down 81 was going to be bad if not impossible.  The one coming from Nashville I'm afraid would, at best, have OK road conditions on either side but then run into really bad weather over the plateau.  She's lived the past several years in the South Pacific after growing up in Nashville so driving in snow is definitely not her strongest skill set.

Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2016, 12:43:05 PM »
The euro verbatim had some weird precip hole around memohis lolz. Take with a grain of salt. No reason to think that would happen ESP given the GFS. Both make the phase very close to eastern Arkansas . GFS was 3-6 in Memphis metro, euro 1-2 with more in every direction lol. Too early for specifics. Euro is playing catch up

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2016, 12:53:44 PM »
The euro verbatim had some weird precip hole around memohis lolz. Take with a grain of salt. No reason to think that would happen ESP given the GFS. Both make the phase very close to eastern Arkansas . GFS was 3-6 in Memphis metro, euro 1-2 with more in every direction lol. Too early for specifics. Euro is playing catch up

Here's the reasoning for that for those wondering...especially if you're looking at the snow maps verbatim. At the time the deformation axis is taking shape...it's traveling through the MEM metro and vicinity in that 66 to 72 hour time period. If you look at QPF...there's a healthy (if narrow) swath of liquid precip along and just south of the I-40 corridor. However...at hour 66 temperatures are still above freezing (34 at MEM to be specific) though by 72 it's well below. The result is Euro's clown map refuses to call that area of precip snow...even though with crashing surface temperatures and 850s in the 6 hours that follow...and the very nature of deformation axes...that precip would almost certainly be snow. If you look at Eurowx's snow map...it handles that precipitation axis more efficiently.

Granted...the strength and closing of the 500 mb low really benefits areas further N/E as it continues to organize...but Memphis is getting a decent snow if you read between the lines of the Euro. It's similar to the GFS to where things are just getting going though as it moves through this region so the corridor of snowfall is much more narrow with a sharper gradient defined. If a phase could occur even 6 hours earlier...the implications would be pretty great.

At this moment I'm cautiously optimistic in *some* snow potential for the metro with this event but there are a lot of uncertainties. Just as a slightly earlier phase could be really beneficial...just as likely at this stage is a later phase or different track that moves everybody's excitement today back to a place of sadness...lol.

Offline joemomma

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2016, 01:21:28 PM »
How's this one looking for the plateau now?  Seems like I read somewhere that eastern TN wasn't going to do well?

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2016, 01:36:27 PM »
How's this one looking for the plateau now?  Seems like I read somewhere that eastern TN wasn't going to do well?
Northern plateau should do well. I don't think anyone in the valley needs to get excited about this right now. The low is not even close to being ideal for us. Could be a good one for far western TN though.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
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Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
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Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Crockett

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2016, 01:38:19 PM »
How's this one looking for the plateau now?  Seems like I read somewhere that eastern TN wasn't going to do well?

Per 0z/6z/12z GFS, tomorrow will likely be the bigger snow-producer of the two for the northern plateau. Still rooting for a bit of a southeastern trend for Friday's system. :)

Offline joemomma

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2016, 01:57:58 PM »
Right on.  I'm technically towards the base of the plateau itself, just north of the Cookeville city limits but we tend to be more similar to plateau weather-wise than other areas west.

Offline Curt

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2016, 02:05:13 PM »
Here's the reasoning for that for those wondering...especially if you're looking at the snow maps verbatim. At the time the deformation axis is taking shape...it's traveling through the MEM metro and vicinity in that 66 to 72 hour time period. If you look at QPF...there's a healthy (if narrow) swath of liquid precip along and just south of the I-40 corridor. However...at hour 66 temperatures are still above freezing (34 at MEM to be specific) though by 72 it's well below. The result is Euro's clown map refuses to call that area of precip snow...even though with crashing surface temperatures and 850s in the 6 hours that follow...and the very nature of deformation axes...that precip would almost certainly be snow. If you look at Eurowx's snow map...it handles that precipitation axis more efficiently.

Granted...the strength and closing of the 500 mb low really benefits areas further N/E as it continues to organize...but Memphis is getting a decent snow if you read between the lines of the Euro. It's similar to the GFS to where things are just getting going though as it moves through this region so the corridor of snowfall is much more narrow with a sharper gradient defined. If a phase could occur even 6 hours earlier...the implications would be pretty great.

At this moment I'm cautiously optimistic in *some* snow potential for the metro with this event but there are a lot of uncertainties. Just as a slightly earlier phase could be really beneficial...just as likely at this stage is a later phase or different track that moves everybody's excitement today back to a place of sadness...lol.


Here's the Eurowx snow map. That's 3-5, maybe pushing 6 in the metro. Good googly moogly at Clarksville over the next 5 days!


 

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