1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Scot]

Wouldn't a quicker changeover as the NWS is now predicting mean higher totals?


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[justinmundie]

Wouldn't a quicker changeover as the NWS is now predicting mean higher totals?


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It should - but honestly, at the totals we're at right now, that's enough to shut these cities down. No one in their right mind is gonna start throwing out anything higher than they are currently, even if they are confident, because the risk/reward doesn't make sense. Ok, so you predicted 4 inches and got 8... no one gets upset about that. You predict 8 and you get 2... people notice and get angry.

[Scot]

I'm getting pretty excited about the potential!


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[mempho]

It should - but honestly, at the totals we're at right now, that's enough to shut these cities down. No one in their right mind is gonna start throwing out anything higher than they are currently, even if they are confident, because the risk/reward doesn't make sense. Ok, so you predicted 4 inches and got 8... no one gets upset about that. You predict 8 and you get 2... people notice and get angry.

All politics.   

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[chelseaintn]

Have to watch carefully to see when to head into work in Nashville in the AM. Have to be there at 1030. We can't call in without at least trying - ER's don't ever close. 

[Adam]

It is probably past time for models, but the 0z HRRR has a 996 mb low that sits over NW Alabama for 6 hours. It hardly moves once it is there. I remember Kevin explaining that this is a classic move for a mid latitude cyclone. The cyclone literally pivots there for a long period of time while it strengthens.

[Drifter]

Have to watch carefully to see when to head into work in Nashville in the AM. Have to be there at 1030. We can't call in without at least trying - ER's don't ever close. 

Thank you for all you do!

[Trevor]

Interesting...HRRR has the majority of precip in that gap falling as sleet and freezing rain.

[justinmundie]

It is probably past time for models, but the 0z HRRR has a 996 mb low that sits over NW Alabama for 6 hours. It hardly moves once it is there. I remember Kevin explaining that this is a classic move for a mid latitude cyclone. The cyclone literally pivots there for a long period of time while it strengthens.

Right - your localized heavy snow areas are where this pivot occurs. The low pressure stops forward movement and the trough starts tilting and then the transfer occurs. This is a situation that happens much more often in the northeast than down here. But here we are.

[Curt]

Interesting...HRRR has the majority of precip in that gap falling as sleet and freezing rain.

Sure does. If that's really snow then that map looks totally different. HRR picks up on the trowel through and its a doozy in west tn.

That's nearly 5 hours of sleet in Shelby Co before a changeover

[draelius]

Gonna be a lot of disappointed kids (bid and small) in MEG if the short-term models keep trending this way.

My little boy has been jumping out of his shoes all night ready to play in the snow. Keep telling him there is no guarantee it will come...hope it does...

[Curt]

Gonna be a lot of disappointed kids (bid and small) in MEG if the short-term models keep trending this way.

My little boy has been jumping out of his shoes all night ready to play in the snow. Keep telling him there is no guarantee it will come...hope it does...

Prob a tad too early to call anything a disappointment? Even if it falls as sleet- which I doubt...that's a complete mess given winds that high.

Latest SREF at Millington avg 5-6 inches now. Tons clustered between 5-6 fairly tight.

[draelius]

Short term soundings show a warm nose aloft at 900-925 that persists for all of East Ark, West TN and NW MS for just about the duration of the storm. Seems odd to me. It's not present in KY, NE MS, South Ark or even SW and central MS. As if there is a pool of warm air above us that doesn't move or modified by the heavy precip.

[Stevo]

The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has declared a State Of Emergency.

[dave]

The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has declared a State Of Emergency.

How rare is that for a winter storm hours before it gets cranking?


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