1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[SuperCell]

Hey Matthew, I wouldn't fret just yet. I live near Woodbury and feel pretty good about our chances. We are close to the big snow now. A small move south would get us in the money.

[a1star93]

This system is pretty different from 1/16/2003 IMO.  That was a bowling ball superclipper low that came at us from the northwest out of NE and MO.

This one is coming at us more out of the southwest... really a different synoptic setup altogether.  The cold air was already in place, and it was snow start to finish on 2003.  This one will begin as rain.

Thanks!  I couldn't remember if it came from our north or the south.

[Coach B]

This system is pretty different from 1/16/2003 IMO.  That was a bowling ball superclipper low that came at us from the northwest out of NE and MO.

This one is coming at us more out of the southwest... really a different synoptic setup altogether.  The cold air was already in place, and it was snow start to finish on 2003.  This one will begin as rain.

True, but I'd be concerned about possible heavy snowfall rates if we get an earlier changeover. Big accums could be possible in the Nashville to Columbia to Lawrenceburg corridor if those bands of precip flip to snow in the 10-2 time period.

[Stevo]

Nashville's high today is supposed to be 40.  We are currently at 35.  If we don't hit our forecasted high  today, do you think that would have much of an impact tomorrow?

[harlequin]

Updated snowfall graphic from MEG.

[Michael]

Here are the highlights of MRX's briefing this afternoon:

• Midnight-7am: Patches of freezing rain along northern plateau; rain elsewhere.
• 7am-1pm: Wintry mix changing to snow along the tier of counties closest the TN/KY border, upper East TN and the mountains.
• 1pm-6pm: Snow, sometimes heavy, for northern plateau. Wintry mix northern TN, upper East TN. Heavy snow, near blizzard conditions in the mountains. Wintry mix southern plateau. Rain valley.
• 6pm-midnight: Snow for all.
• Total accums:

Where is this graphic? I don't see this on the NOAA site for MRX.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cbrentv3]

Nashville's high today is supposed to be 40.  We are currently at 35.  If we don't hit our forecasted high  today, do you think that would have much of an impact tomorrow?

I've got 41 here is n Murfreesboro.    Do you think with the rain pushing in from the SW  that Temps will go up??


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[draelius]

18z RAP has the changeover in Memphis proper around 3 am. Looks as if deformation zone sets up from just north of Memphis and basically follows the MS River down to Greenville.

[justinmundie]

Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

Wednesday's storm was much more similar to Jan 03 at optically than this one. Actually there is really nothing similar about this storm and Jan 03.

[WXHD]

Temps will surely go up this evening. If nothing else, hours and hours of rain will warm the ground and air.

[Crockett]

Where is this graphic? I don't see this on the NOAA site for MRX.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It was a slide from MRX's briefing this afternoon.

[justinmundie]

Nashville's high today is supposed to be 40.  We are currently at 35.  If we don't hit our forecasted high  today, do you think that would have much of an impact tomorrow?

Not really. Warm air aloft will come in overnight and were depending on the dynamics of the system to start pulling cold air aloft back down to change things over. It's a near certainty that it will be a rain to snow situation, regardless of surface temps today.

[draelius]

Through 6 am, RAP clown map is showing 8-12" from Little Rock down to Mena, AR. Things are getting going in MEG at the end of the run.

[Scot]

18z NAM is rolling


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[harlequin]

Feel a bit bad for the folks over at LZK. Accumulations in AR seem all over the place.