1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Dyersburg Weather]

FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working. 

[Crockett]

Here are the highlights of MRX's briefing this afternoon:

• Midnight-7am: Patches of freezing rain along northern plateau; rain elsewhere.
• 7am-1pm: Wintry mix changing to snow along the tier of counties closest the TN/KY border, upper East TN and the mountains.
• 1pm-6pm: Snow, sometimes heavy, for northern plateau. Wintry mix northern TN, upper East TN. Heavy snow, near blizzard conditions in the mountains. Wintry mix southern plateau. Rain valley.
• 6pm-midnight: Snow for all.
• Total accums:

[toastido]

FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working. 

Thanks for noting that.  Fixed. 

[Eric]

FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working. 

The mobile chat uses as much - if not more of - server resources.  Until this system is over and done, the chat should be, and soon will be, off-limits. 

Thanks for noting that.  Fixed. 

Boom.

[mmk3742]

Trend slightly southeast to Smyrna storm. That way I can justify buying the cool polar bear sled for my polar bear loving four year old.

[Farris_TN]

Has NashSevereWX posted lately? ... Just noticed on Twitter that he's saying the changeover in Nashville may not occur until between 4:00 PM and Dark...From what I've seen all the models today have trended back to a Noon time likely change for Nashville, correct?

[Charles L.]

How reliable is the WRF?

[a1star93]

Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

[WestKnoxNavster]

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

I drive a school bus here in Knox county and didn't have to leave my bus but I had to take a lot of my kids back on January 28th, 2014 when the school system decided to go to school despite "snow starting after noon and 2-4" expected" and it started at 9a and they dismissed at 11:15 and 12.

[Coach B]

From what I've seen all the models today have trended back to a Noon time likely change for Nashville, correct?

The 5KM ARW has the changeover at 10am on a Nashville-Franklin-Columbia-Waynesboro line.
5KM NMM also has the changeover at 10 on a Nashville to Centerville to Savannah line.

[harlequin]

Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

The two systems are very different in terms of setup, but timing may not be ideal for Middle TN in terms of closure decisions. At least in Memphis we should be changing over during or before rush hour.

[Thundersnow]

Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

This system is pretty different from 1/16/2003 IMO.  That was a bowling ball superclipper low that came at us from the northwest out of NE and MO.

This one is coming at us more out of the southwest... really a different synoptic setup altogether.  The cold air was already in place, and it was snow start to finish on 2003.  This one will begin as rain.

[StormNine]

Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

Setup wise meterologically it is very different.  1/16/2003 was a smaller system that produced a locally heavier band of snow over the Nashville area.  This one is a huge southern Miller B turned nor'easter with abundant moisture.  Therefore the ceiling for more widespread significant snow is higher.   If I was the school system operate under "Better Safe than Sorry" principle because high winds 25-35MPH combined with snow and rapidly falling temperatures are no conditions for children to be under.  It is much better to blame the weatherman for missing school and to put children in harms way.  I'm confident that at least most schools will learn from what happened a few years ago in AL/GA/SE TN and make the right call. 

[KG4GKE]

I like the cut of their jib - but I hate it for memphis. I wonder why they seem to be less confident about the deform band over there?

General overall pessimism? Hard to say.   

[draelius]

Multiple tornado warnings in SHV. Very dynamic system evolving.