1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Thundersnow]

I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.

Point taken.   

[justinmundie]

I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.

What are the RPM's verification scores like at this range? Obviously I don't get to see multiple runs of it every day, but it seems like it can have some pretty serious off days.

[Curt]

The Canadian is coming in south and east. Looks like it lowers snow amounts a bunch though and is pretty skimpy along the Mississippi.

Canadian - at least along the ms River- has less accumulations not because of precip but sleet then to a quick burst of heavy snow. Sleet is always going to do a number on accums. Sleet is possible just not buoying that with these dynamics

Looking a tad more- Cmc has almost 5-6 hours of freezing rain and blinding sleet at Memphis before 2 hours of moderate snow and 1-2 inches. Not sure maybe it's on to something. Experience tells me different.

[justinmundie]

Canadian - at least along the ms River- has less accumulations not because of precip but sleet then to a quick burst of heavy snow. Sleet is always going to do a number on accums. Sleet is possible just not buoying that with these dynamics

This.

The cooling is coming from the top down. Any convection will expedite the changeover. There won't be much sleet or freezing rain here except maybe the northern fringes as this starts organizing.

[Curt]

This.

The cooling is coming from the top down. Any convection will expedite the changeover. There won't be much sleet or freezing rain here except maybe the northern fringes as this starts organizing.

The hi res models are really the best place now to see specifics since we are short term.

[Eric]

NWS saying 5-7" for CKV, maybe higher.  2-4" for Rutherford Co, depending on changeover time.  Areas w/WSW not already under a warning will get a WWA tonight.  Maybe some ZR across N sections tonight if temps don't reach +32F today. 

[Vols1]

What's it showing for Dickson Eric?

[Eric]

What's it showing for Dickson Eric?

Sorry, man...haven't been focused on Dickson.  Best guess is several inches of snow...2-4", maybe more.

[Susan]

Hope we don't end up with a situation of everyone deciding to leave work at the same time, once the snow begins.  Always makes a bad situation worse.  Hopefully, the local schools will make the decision to close schools early so folks can be off the road before the snow begins. 

[Vols1]

Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

[collinsk]

The whole area having a descent show of greater than 4 inches anymore is the same as winning the Powerball, over 1:292,210,000.

[Eric]

Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

Euro is spooling up now.

[WXHD]

Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

The excitement is just about to start. The Euro runs any minute now. 

[Charles L.]

Hope we don't end up with a situation of everyone deciding to leave work at the same time, once the snow begins.  Always makes a bad situation worse.  Hopefully, the local schools will make the decision to close schools early so folks can be off the road before the snow begins.

I have to be at work at 6:30 tomorrow morning. I pray I am able to leave early/get home before it starts.

[Dyersburg Weather]