1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[mtcards]

Is Dickson in a decent spot?

Well, it could use a Red Lobster and a Jack in the Box.....but seriously, yes, I think Dickson will do well.   In most models the past few days they have always been inside the money zone, sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.  With the models trending South now, there is a little breathing room for error.  Still, if you live in North DC, you will see a bit more snow regardless of the actual solution.

[snowdog]

12z Ukie at 30 hours.  I'd take that.

[Dyersburg Weather]

We are starting to get in the HRRR range and the current run has the deform band setting up in Arkansas like last nights runs. 

[Coach B]

The Canadian is coming in south and east. Looks like it lowers snow amounts a bunch though and is pretty skimpy along the Mississippi.

[StormNine]

Confidence is very high that a major winter storm will impact several of us the amounts will shift around through the event because any trend even 20-30 is huge because there are very sharp gradients both on the NW and SE edge of this band.   I would say areas like Camden, Clarksville, Bowling Green, Dover, and Scottsville are about as close to a lock as you can get for a significant winter storm in our area.   

[Dyersburg Weather]

[marjl21]

Precip is exploding to our south and west... Lots of lightning as well, even back with the ULL over Dallas.

[snowdog]

Ukie has roughly 1" of QPF in BNA with 2m's and 850's crashing. 


Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 11:03:21 AM12z CMC looks kind of like the Euro from the other day.  Takes more of a east route than ENE.  I like the look of that...

[WXHD]

Ukie has roughly 1" of QPF in BNA with 2m's and 850's crashing. 

Is it showing that the changeover happens fairly late in the day?

[snowdog]

Is it showing that the changeover happens fairly late in the day?

Verbatim, going by a meteogram which is pretty crude, roughly looking at 18z...or noon. 

[justinmundie]

experimental HRRR out to 24 hours (8am) looks like the changeover trying to happen along the I40 corridor in middle. 850s are below 0. 925 looks to have a bit of a warm nose, but heavy rates would likely pull down cold air and change it over. Again. Dynamics.

[Vols1]

Yeah I live in SE Dickson county so I'll probably get the short lol

[InMemphis]

Any significant changes for the Memphis area?

[Charles L.]

experimental HRRR out to 24 hours (8am) looks like the changeover trying to happen along the I40 corridor in middle. 850s are below 0. 925 looks to have a bit of a warm nose, but heavy rates would likely pull down cold air and change it over. Again. Dynamics.

And Memphis is getting hammered and the 10M wind gusts would verify a Blizzard Warning for sure.

[Chipper31]

Looks like it was posted before he would have had a chance to review the 12Z GFS.  The NAM was out though.

I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.