1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[snowdog]

12z NAM is a hair south at 14 hours...still not all that different at 500mb than the 00z.

Also a little more positive tilt, may help it not wrap up as fast...we shall see.   

[BRUCE]

And it begins... Thunder sleet reported at little rock...

[Eric]

12z NAM H19 looks a bit more concentric at the surface than the 6z. 

WAA not nearly as evident on the 12z....

12z NAM much colder at the surface than 6z.

[snowdog]

RobertWx, throwing out some hope...lol

Robert at Wxsouth hasn't changed his tune about the south track and all, and just posted thisL
The beginning of the storm is within the short range model's view now . Here is hour 18 (valid tonight). A powerful digging impluse phases into a developing cutoff in Louisiana. This will roll eastward tomorrow through MS, AL, GA and then the Carolinas, reaching the East Coast Saturday afternoon.
Blocking confluent stream in the far Northeast US will keep on forcing the main low in the South to cut more east than north. This has been fooling a lot of forecasters, as each time the models "think" the low will pull into Tennessee, they recognize the strength of the Northern Stream and the storm down south is forced to redevelop and cut more eastward, across Georgia into South Carolina late Friday night.
Growing signs of that deformation backside snow band to get northern Alabama, northern Georgia overnight, where I have more snow than all models,

[snowdog]

Better run for BNA thus far...ull and 700mb low further south

[Eric]

Surface low stronger on the 12z (1004mb -> 1006mb on the 6z)..

[Eric]

Changeover happening quicker to the NW on the 12z...

[snowdog]

This is what we want to see.....should put deform band much closer to bna

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016012112&var=ABSV&lev=700mb&hour=025

[BRUCE]

Significant changes on 12z nam word is

[Eric]

H25, MEM, MKL, CKV have all changed over.  That's 7am.

[Eric]

Surface low is maybe 50 miles further S compared to the 6z iteration.

[ServoCrow]

This is what we want to see.....should put deform band much closer to bna

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016012112&var=ABSV&lev=700mb&hour=025

Looks like a Blizzarcane   

[Charles L.]

Definitely colder. Helps the surface low isn't in far NW AL.

[Eric]

10am, MEM is getting blizzard'd.

[Eric]

T850s look MUCH better on the 12z than the 6z NAM.