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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 273019 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #540 on: January 21, 2016, 03:24:54 AM »
LMK has upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. Calling for 3-6" for their counties bordering TN and 10-14" for their central counties.

They also mention the risk of 30-35 mph wind gusts and blowing snow.
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Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #541 on: January 21, 2016, 03:26:48 AM »
Thunderstorms with freezing rain in Little Rock....look at the lightning!

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Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #542 on: January 21, 2016, 03:47:12 AM »
I don't know why I'm still awake first of all lol...

But if worst came to worst you can always upgrade. That actually almost happened in March 2008. Yes there are signals especially on the GFS that wind gusts could near criteria but its such a gutsy call to make honestly.
I agree that it is a gutsy call and I honestly don't know if I could do it but:

1) It is (arguably) the right call

2) It will likely keep a lot of people off the roads and this will likely save lives if a blizzard does verify. Case in point,  we will have people at the office in a winter storm but a blizzard will almost assuredly keep people at home.   This is the culture a lot of places and there is an unwritten code so people feel compelled to venture out to go to work even if they don't think it's a good idea. 

As you said -  a very gutsy call and it will take a courageous individual or group of individuals to make it.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #543 on: January 21, 2016, 03:55:54 AM »
6z GFS pretty much holds serve. It looks to be a touch south from the 0z run, but not by much. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles say. I expect a few of them to be further south too.

When dealing with snow, a 25-50 mile shift in either direction can have huge implications for someone. So while it may not look like a big change from one run to the next, it is important to note any changes.
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Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #544 on: January 21, 2016, 04:07:01 AM »
6z GFS:





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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #545 on: January 21, 2016, 04:08:31 AM »
WPC siding with the Euro for the 0z suite,  citing initialization errors and poor handling of the stream regarding the GFS &  NAM.   

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #546 on: January 21, 2016, 04:09:52 AM »

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MID-SOUTH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COMBINING TO
PRODUCE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DELTA REGION
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

Offline Charles L.

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Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #548 on: January 21, 2016, 04:13:28 AM »
MEG...

Quote
A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF 
THE MID-SOUTH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COMBINING TO 
PRODUCE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DELTA REGION 
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL 
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT 
IMPOSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... 
 
WHILE MODELS ARE NOT FULLY IN AGREEMENT...ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS 
EXISTS TO UPGRADE MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH TO A WINTER STORM 
WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH-END POTENTIAL APPARENT IN THIS 
EVENT. DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED BELOW: 
 
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DEPICTS A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH WAVE-BREAK VERY NEAR THE MID-SOUTH WITH A 
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MS. 
THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MID-SOUTH. IN 
FACT...THE 4TH CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS EVENT IS THE CHRISTMAS 
BLIZZARD OF 2012 WITH A NUMBER OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE TWO 
EVENTS APPARENT. 
 
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS LOUSIANA WITH THE 
LOW TRACKING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING 
AS IT INTENSIFIES. PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NIGHT AS PARCELS ARE RAPIDLY FORCED UP A 
SLOPING FRONTAL SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RESERVOIR OF 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH SUGGESTS THE 
VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 
THUNDER AS THE PRECIP EXPANDS NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION 
AS TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL EVOLVE. AT THIS 
TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MIXED WITH 
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BEFORE 
MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF THE FREEZING LINE FROM 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FOR AREAS NEARER TO THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO...IT APPEARS 
THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS A WARM NOSE OF 
2-4 LOCATED NEAR 850 MB WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE. THE BEST 
TIME FRAME FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM 
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR 
AROUND 6 AM FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 
 
THE PERIOD BETWEEN 6 AM AND 3 PM ON FRIDAY IS OF MOST CONCERN. 
THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME WHEN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND 
COMMERCE ARE EXPECTED WITH TRAVEL POTENTIALLY BECOMING 
IMPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS ACROSS THE DELTA. WHILE 
TOTAL QPF VALUES OUTPUT BY MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY 
IMPRESSIVE...PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONG WITH MESOSCALE PROCESSESS 
SUGGEST THAT A HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL EVENT WILL UNFOLD. CROSS 
SECTIONS TAKEN PERPENDICULAR TO THE DEFORMATION SHOW CLASSIC 
INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE/THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE.
BY 12Z...A 
STRONG DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO THE CYCLONE WHICH STEEPENS AND FOLDS 
THETA SURFACES JUST SOUTHEAST OF MEMPHIS. UPRIGHT INSTABILITY IS 
EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH 
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STATIC STABILITY FURTHER NORTHWEST WITHIN 
THE DEVELOPING TROWAL AIR STREAM. IF THIS WERE TO MATERIALIZE AS 
FORECAST...SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE 
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.
THE OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLE POINTING TO 
A HIGH-END EVENT IN TERMS OF IMPACTS IS THE WINDS. 925 MB ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS ORIENTED FAVORABLY THROUGH THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MOMEMTUM TRANSFER TOOLS YIELD WIND GUSTS 
FREQUENTLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BLIZZARD HEADLINES 
WERE CONSIDERED GIVEN THE EXPECTED PROLONGED VISIBILITY 
REDUCTIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE SIMPLY ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS 
EVOLUTION.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AT THIS POINT IS 
SEMANTICS...AND THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT REGARDLESS OF THE 
HEADLINE...THIS EVENT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY BY ALL PARTIES. 
 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST WITH 
NEW CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. 
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT IT 
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. 
REGARDLESS...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MESOSCALE BANDING ARE ANTICIPATED.   

THIS EVENT SHOULD WIND DOWN IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD BUT 
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. 
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 04:16:03 AM by Kevin Terry »

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #549 on: January 21, 2016, 04:18:20 AM »
OMG at this new zone forecast for Shelby...

Quote
TONIGHT...WINDY. RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SNOW...SLEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNRISE. 
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 
30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY INCREASING TO NORTH 
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
   
FRIDAY...WINDY. SNOW AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE 
MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW 
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 
7 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH 
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.   

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. CLOUDY IN THE 
EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH DECREASING TO 
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.   

Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #550 on: January 21, 2016, 04:19:30 AM »
OMG at this new zone forecast for Shelby...
Just awesome!

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #551 on: January 21, 2016, 04:21:11 AM »
MEG...
Question:  do they upgrade if modeling continues to support blizzard conditions or does this mean they are closing the door on it for good?

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #552 on: January 21, 2016, 04:25:55 AM »
OMG at this new zone forecast for Shelby...

Same for me in Desoto!  ::snowman:: ::flag::

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #553 on: January 21, 2016, 04:28:25 AM »
Question:  do they upgrade if modeling continues to support blizzard conditions or does this mean they are closing the door on it for good?

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I would say the door is open for an upgrade but it would probably be a nowcast decision....

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #554 on: January 21, 2016, 04:29:02 AM »
Question:  do they upgrade if modeling continues to support blizzard conditions or does this mean they are closing the door on it for good?

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IMO, if it looks like the system is evolving where gusts of over 35 mph looks possible for a wide area, I think they have to go with the Blizzard Warning.
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