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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 258475 times)

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Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #45 on: January 20, 2016, 09:06:28 AM »
12z 4km NAM snowfall. Of the totals you see, reduce it by 2". The NAM paints 2" for today, so the rest it shows falling is for the Friday system.

Looks much better for most of mid TN, especially the south. But it lost the huge accums in west TN. ::coffee::

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #46 on: January 20, 2016, 09:10:00 AM »
12z 4km NAM snowfall. Of the totals you see, reduce it by 2". The NAM paints 2" for today, so the rest it shows falling is for the Friday system.

(Attachment Link)

Even taking off the 2" this run gives East TN a solid event.  It looks like the line between a big snow and a couple of inches runs right through Knox county, which could be interesting.  Local forecasts still say lower 40's and rain on Friday, but the temps seem to get lower with every forecast.  I'm going to lose so much more potentially productive time watching this forum the second half of the week.   ::coffee::

Offline Susan

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #47 on: January 20, 2016, 09:18:09 AM »
anxiously awaiting Paul Heggen's blog, he pretty much nailed today's storm
All my misspelled words, typos, and grammatical errors, are intentional, and intended to troll and provoke.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #48 on: January 20, 2016, 09:19:53 AM »
Gut Feeling: There are going to be some incredibly disappointed and bitter people come Friday.... and that's because somebody within close range of them is going to get a potentially once in a generation event.

Offline harlequin

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #49 on: January 20, 2016, 09:20:42 AM »
Quote
Thursday Night Rain before midnight, then rain and snow. Low around 31. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Friday Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a north northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

I'd honestly cash out now w/ these grids. It's greedy to ask for more than 2 inches in these parts. ;)

But it will be hard to not be a little sour if there are +++ accumulations within a few counties.

Offline collinsk

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #50 on: January 20, 2016, 09:32:41 AM »
Pls post Hegen's blog when he does it.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #51 on: January 20, 2016, 09:36:06 AM »
GFS says a couple of inches are possible even here Saturday morning. Bring it on, I'll be doing a 12 mile run in the national park rain, snow, or shine. Should be fun.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #52 on: January 20, 2016, 09:39:06 AM »
Someone in the Meg area is going to have near blizzard conditions- winds consistently show near 40-45 gusts with the heaviest band on Friday.

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #53 on: January 20, 2016, 09:41:53 AM »
Ok take two inches away gives me 11 inches of snow. That I'll work.


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Offline BRUCE

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #54 on: January 20, 2016, 09:51:54 AM »
Closed off low over central ms on latest gfs. Umm
Come on severe wx season...

Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #55 on: January 20, 2016, 09:57:45 AM »



Winds gusting past 40 mph in the snow areas along the MS River in these frames on the 12z GFS

Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #56 on: January 20, 2016, 10:06:18 AM »
Starting to get model convergence now within 60 hours. Folks in the mid south need to keep a watchful eye on this.

Offline ServoCrow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #57 on: January 20, 2016, 10:09:44 AM »
Starting to get model convergence now within 60 hours. Folks in the mid south need to keep a watchful eye on this.

Hubby is working is Chicago right now, and he was asking about how this storm was going to affect us.
"Don't think it hasn't been a little slice of heaven...'cause it hasn't."
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Online Curt

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #58 on: January 20, 2016, 10:10:07 AM »


10m wind gusts at the same time frames above
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 10:14:17 AM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #59 on: January 20, 2016, 10:11:45 AM »
12zgfs says throw little thunder snow in to boot in the deform band
Come on severe wx season...

 

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