1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Kevin Terry]

Thought it varied per office for the timing

Moreso it varies based on confidence. If an office is highly confident...you can issue out to 36 hours. If not...you can basically holdoff until 12 hours or even real-time if it's ongoing (it would be an upgrade from an advisory...in that situation of course)

[Trevor]

4k NAM on Weatherbell (not sure if it's rendering differently on other sites so I thought I'd share)

[Dyersburg Weather]

[Trevor]

Unreal.

[Charles L.]

So, the 4km cuts Sumner counties totals halfway through the county. Northern sections see 6" while southern sections see an inch at most.

  the SumnerSevereWx page would be fun to follow if that happened!

[Hunter_McDonald]

Kevin,

Do you still think we have a high bust porential? What about you Trevor?

[Clay]

Although this is a very plausible track, it is also an outlying solution. Need the GFS and euro to get on board until Nashvillians  starts to worry.

[snowdog]

SREF plume mean went down for BNA on the 21z....now this.  Hmm.

[Kevin Terry]

Kevin,

Do you still think we have a high bust porential? What about you Trevor?

I have no idea. Ask me after the GFS lol. I suppose with the NAM N/W and the GFS S/E by definition there remains a great spread and thus...bust potential.

[Matt]

Outlier? Perhaps. If the GFS and subsequently the Euro trend like the NAM, game over.

[StormNine]

Just to show the challenges the local NWS offices face look at the gradient shown in the PAH CWA.  Just a 25-30 mile shift could be the difference between a double digit snow and barely reaching an advisory level event according to that run.   Other model runs some significant gradients although not quite that pronounced.  The gradients are absolute nightmares for forecasters.   

[Trevor]

So if everything holds, WSW by morning? Or do you think they'll wait?

[Dyersburg Weather]

Although this is a very plausible track, it is also an outlying solution. Need the GFS and euro to get on board until Nashvillians  starts to worry.

Clay you nailed it. The real solution might be in the middle somewhere. 

[Matthew]

Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?

[Kevin Terry]

Is not the NAM usually not so great?  Or has it gotten better?

The NAM is certainly not in the top tier...but we are getting within 48 hours when it starts performing better. But it's just the first model run tonight...the GFS has an entirely different scenario. Have to see what it does tonight.