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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 252769 times)

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Offline Clay

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #30 on: January 20, 2016, 12:13:43 AM »
For those of you wondering about the 0z Euro...

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #31 on: January 20, 2016, 12:25:49 AM »
0z Euro major hit for all but the MS River counties in TN. Thing really gets wound up as the low moves into AL and GA.

Euro text output:

1.4" for Memphis
9.7" for Jackson
6.9" for Nashville
1.6" for Chattanooga
3.8" for Knoxville
12.4" for Bristol

Offline Curt

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #32 on: January 20, 2016, 12:33:59 AM »
0z Euro major hit for all but the MS River counties in TN. Thing really gets wound up as the low moves into AL and GA.

Euro text output:

1.4" for Memphis
9.7" for Jackson
6.9" for Nashville
1.6" for Chattanooga
3.8" for Knoxville
12.4" for Bristol

Smokin' something ? Memphis is easily 3-6

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #33 on: January 20, 2016, 12:40:23 AM »
Did my eyes play tricks on me or did the euro throw out 10-11 inches for ckv area? ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::WOW one can dream!

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #34 on: January 20, 2016, 02:12:08 AM »
Smokin' something ? Memphis is easily 3-6

Upon closer inspection, there may be an error with the text output - or some kind of dynamics beyond my understanding in play. .53 of QPF but insanely low ratios of 2:1 - 4:1.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #35 on: January 20, 2016, 02:35:42 AM »
New NAM run is absolutely hammering west TN with a deformation band by 9 AM Friday.

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 ::wow:: this run of the NAM is fantastic for middle TN too.

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« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 02:38:56 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #36 on: January 20, 2016, 02:41:43 AM »
HUGE shift SE with the snow band on this run.

0z Run... [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

6z Run... [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #37 on: January 20, 2016, 04:58:21 AM »
LMK has issued a Winter Storm Watch for this threat. Saying 2-4" right now for South Central KY.
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Offline Michael

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #38 on: January 20, 2016, 05:15:10 AM »
06z Hi-Res NAM. Congrats west tn!



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Offline Hank W

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #39 on: January 20, 2016, 05:25:53 AM »
06z NAM is very Euroish. GFS still holding the heaviest snow back to the NW by about 100 miles. Got to think with the NAM making the switch, the GFS is probably playing catch-up as usual. But with two days out, still time for things to change.

Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #40 on: January 20, 2016, 06:47:27 AM »
Some pretty strong wording from MEG AFD:
Quote
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHEAST TX/LA. THE OBSERVED
TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT A
STRONGER...DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS PREFERRED
. THIS
WOULD GENERALLY TAKE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHWEST TN. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TYPES AND POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME-RANGE WILL NOT
BE DISCUSSED. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT DO SUGGEST A HIGH-
IMPACT EVENT...HOWEVER...AND THEY ARE DISCUSSED BELOW:

WHILE HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS THAT THE UPPER BOUND IN TERMS OF IMPACTS IS QUITE HIGH.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG FLOW NEAR
925 MB IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 40 MPH COINCIDENT WITH A TEXTBOOK BANDED HEAVY
SNOWFALL EVENT
. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BUT THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS GIVEN THAT ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING...BUT DIFFER IN PLACEMENT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER
STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #41 on: January 20, 2016, 06:48:56 AM »
Worth mentioning for the curious that all of the snow in the east tn valley in that nam clown falls today. It has no snow from the weekend system except in NE TN. Too much WAA on this side of the state.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #42 on: January 20, 2016, 07:19:37 AM »
Some pretty strong wording from MEG AFD:
While MEG did not use the "b"  word,  they certainly indicated that it was a possibility. 

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Susan

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #43 on: January 20, 2016, 08:50:44 AM »
I miss being able to lurk on these boards to get the latest information on the weather.  Chat is fine, but too difficult to try to scan back to read.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2016, 08:57:42 AM by Susan »
All my misspelled words, typos, and grammatical errors, are intentional, and intended to troll and provoke.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #44 on: January 20, 2016, 08:55:15 AM »
12z 4km NAM snowfall. Of the totals you see, reduce it by 2". The NAM paints 2" for today, so the rest it shows falling is for the Friday system.

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