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0z Euro major hit for all but the MS River counties in TN. Thing really gets wound up as the low moves into AL and GA.Euro text output:1.4" for Memphis9.7" for Jackson6.9" for Nashville1.6" for Chattanooga3.8" for Knoxville12.4" for Bristol
Smokin' something ? Memphis is easily 3-6
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THEREGION AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ANDSIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHEAST TX/LA. THE OBSERVEDTREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT ASTRONGER...DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THISWOULD GENERALLY TAKE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHEREBETWEEN CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHWEST TN. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOWIS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TYPES AND POTENTIALSNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME-RANGE WILL NOTBE DISCUSSED. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT DO SUGGEST A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT...HOWEVER...AND THEY ARE DISCUSSED BELOW:WHILE HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITAPPEARS THAT THE UPPER BOUND IN TERMS OF IMPACTS IS QUITE HIGH.OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG FLOW NEAR925 MB IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WIND GUSTSCOULD APPROACH 40 MPH COINCIDENT WITH A TEXTBOOK BANDED HEAVYSNOWFALL EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH REGARD TO THEPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BUT THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCETHAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE AFFECTED BYTHIS GIVEN THAT ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATUREDEVELOPING...BUT DIFFER IN PLACEMENT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THATCONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTERSTORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTHTHURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
Some pretty strong wording from MEG AFD:
