1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Clarksville Snowman]

Ron Howes had the CKV area at 9 inches but not much anywhere else. It didn't make much sense overall. But I could tell he thought that this could be the one. Tonight all of the local mets looked like they wanted to pull the trigger. I am almost surprised they acted as up on it as they did this early compared with how the normally are a few days out.

[NashRugger]

I understand making your own forecast, but to differ SO MUCH from OHX?  I don't know,man.....

This, because that's basically slapping the mets at OHX in the face. Going against them AND model outputs by that much is just a complete and utter lack of meteorological professionalism.

[MemphisJDJ]

WPC snowfall probability of at least 4"

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[snowdog]

Preparing myself for the 0z runs to be a mass disaster for the MEM contingent if nobody else. GFS/GEFS just has me worried.

Didn't last years choke job do the same.  Started looking bad late for Memphis, but Nashville was still good.  Then a model or two runs later right before the event Nashville lost it too.  Lets not start that trend again.  I hope you guys get buried....just be on the western edge of it...don't want BNA in the dry slot.   

[cgauxknox]

WATE in Knoxville tonight is saying rain on Friday then 2-4 inches of snow overnight into Saturday but they aren't really confident in the solutions at this point.

[Nashville_Wx]

Yeah I just read 10 pages, you all have been going nuts! 

[snowdog]

Yeah I just read 10 pages, you all have been going nuts! 

There seemed to be a bit of anxiety over the 18z suite.   

[Kevin Terry]

Didn't last years choke job do the same.  Started looking bad late for Memphis, but Nashville was still good.  Then a model or two runs later right before the event Nashville lost it too.  Lets not start that trend again.  I hope you guys get buried....just be on the western edge of it...don't want BNA in the dry slot.   

Well we still ended up with a major sleet storm and I was personally fine with that (it was disappointing at the time of course lol). Plus we had good events later in the winter that made it a pretty great season overall for me.

The meteorology of this event strongly suggests the TROWAL will be there. Moreso than the GFS being exactly right with almost nothing as far as that explicitly...I'm worried that this is so close to sliding the wrong way and us being too far N/W...or the TROWAL doesn't get going until too late locally. So little room for error. Who knows we're all so jaded after so many heartbreaks lol.

[Clarksville Snowman]

Everybody is tense, a bunch of thoughts from the people on this board right now are !!!!

[Clarksville Snowman]

Well we still ended up with a major sleet storm and I was personally fine with that (it was disappointing at the time of course lol). Plus we had good events later in the winter that made it a pretty great season overall for me.

The meteorology of this event strongly suggests the TROWAL will be there. Moreso than the GFS being exactly right with almost nothing as far as that explicitly...I'm worried that this is so close to sliding the wrong way and us being too far N/W...or the TROWAL doesn't get going until too late locally. So little room for error. Who knows we're all so jaded after so many heartbreaks lol.

I'm bringing all the optimism and hope with me I can muster my friend. Let's do this!!!!

[Eric]

It was the 18z GFS/18z NAM.  18z runs are notoriously bunk anyway.  If the 0z runs go south, I'm done with weather.

[BRUCE]

personally im not worried with one bad 18zgfs run...lets see what the 0z nam does... then we go from there... almost about short range time shortly anyways... trowels r hard to model on the global models... thus far we have th king in our corner... who cares iam calling for I 40 corridor 5 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts  being in center of the deform band... whoever that is

[Curt]

latest SREF plume at NQA is about 3 inches. EURO ENS was 3-4 inches, EURO was about 6. 18z GEFS about 2

[MemphisJDJ]

And it's been slowly increasing over the last few runs

[Dyersburg Weather]

MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol

MEG is going all in at this point. Looks to have 4 to 8 just about area wide.