1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Charles L.]

18z RGEM...

[ Guests cannot view attachments ] [ Guests cannot view attachments ] [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

[Thundersnow]

So, the 12Z runs were magical, while the 18Z runs have thrown in some doubts.

Hopefully, we'll have more confidence in something, for better or worse, after the 0Zs tonights.

[Kevin Terry]

Not too worried - yet. GFS has heavy precip in the deformation band at Memphis- doesn't show as snow since temps are 33-34. I bet that's probably snow. At least it didn't show it disappearing lol

Well...not quite. The GFS's precip in the MEM that's heaviest is 3-6z...that's not associated with the deform band and before the dynamics are in play to changeover the precip. The deform band is toward 12z....which is much much lighter and also mostly SE of the MEM area entirely.

[Trevor]

Had to do a double take...my grids were just updated. Can't say I've seen these accumulation forecasts for a long time...

Thursday Night Rain before midnight, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday Snow. High near 32. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

[Kevin Terry]

Again...will note this QPF panel does seem a bit suspicious and may imply some feedback issues...which would have implications on upstream QPF (which is N/E). So it may be a mix of technical and meteorological issues for what the 18z GFS depicts.

Still...doesn't help my confidence...especially if you're on the potential NW edge of the deformation axis with very little room for error to miss out with even slight jogs S/E.

[Kevin Terry]

Had to do a double take...my grids were just updated. Can't say I've seen these accumulation forecasts for a long time...

MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol

[Eric]

Fresh OHX graphic:



Seems a bit on the low end... 

[Dyersburg Weather]

MEG better pray on the NAM/ECMWF lol

Kevin what does WREG use as their in house model ? RPM ?

[Curt]

There's your 18z nam totals for the entire event

[Sbeagles]

Ol Lisa Patton was happy to go all in. Said west of I-65 would see more than 3" and that number would probably go up... Lol I'm rolling with Lisa for better or worse.

[Matthew]

Fresh OHX graphic:



Seems a bit on the low end... 

Well with the rain & ground temps. 

[Kevin Terry]

Kevin what does WREG use as their in house model ? RPM ?

You can input any model into that computer and show it but most of the time they just show the RPM...so most likely.

[WXHD]

Fresh OHX graphic:



Seems a bit on the low end... 

Counter to my wish casting. OHX has done pretty good being on the low end the past couple of years. They can always revise up but, 3 will certainly get people's attention.

[Dyersburg Weather]

You can input any model into that computer and show it but most of the time they just show the RPM...so most likely.

Just watched the update at 4:15. It looked like one of us ran the model.  Was absolutely perfect for all. Had Memphis dead center of deform band with it expanding as it goes east.

[Curt]

Here's your 18z nam simulated radar

It's getting its act together right over Memphis. Could be bust could be boom. Certainly areas around Jackson could rock it as it really gets its act together. Look at the 32 line carefully. Obviously 850's are crashing so might be precip type issues. My experience with most of these types of events are a quick change from rain to snow - not sleet