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I think you will do okay drift, that run had me on the edge of the good stuff myself. I think were okay right now. This thing probably isn't through with it's shifting yet if history is any indication. It might not be big shifts but we don't need much of one. This could still be a good one for most if not all of us.
4km NAM snowfall totals. 15" up my way? yes please!
The gap in snow totals in west Tn is caused by sleet showing up on the 4K NAM in the deform band. IMO this would be snow and if this particular run verified most everyone would be happy.
For those wondering about those 4k totals in W TN...I'll bet a large sum of money that does NOT happen like that...so the deform band just disappears for a few hours as 996 mb low is cranking in NW AL?
Approaching all time record totals for Davidson County there... I see a little piece of yellow there, which is 18".Again, just a clown map not to take literally... but, wow...
FYI - Tidbits accum maps seem to be screwed up.Here's the 10:1 from pivotal, which also seems odd with no snow back towards memphis.
CURRENTLY UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWNOW EXITING TO OUR EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GEARING UP INSOUTHERN PLAINS AS CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAINWILL SPREAD INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTHURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRALMISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW THEN TRACKS UP THROUGHNORTHERN ALABAMA AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY WHILE CLOSED 850MBAR LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER. SOMEWHAT RARE TOSEE CLOSED 700 MBAR LOW THIS FAR SOUTH BUT WE HAVE ONE WITH THISSYSTEM. ALSO...GOOD DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ACROSS TENNESSEE.SO EVERYTHING STACKING UP FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT HERE IN MIDDLETENNESSEE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ANDRANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SYSTEM PULLSAWAY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT DOUBLE DISTURBANCES SEEN IN THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE AND DEEPEN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN LOUISIANA AND TRACK TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS TRACK WILL INITIALLY ALLOW MODERATELY WARM AND MOIST AIR TO REACH THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONLY THE FAR NORTH WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY BE FREEZING RAIN. A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE PRESENT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO ALABAMA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER ERODES. FORECAST SKEWT'S SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO WEST TENNESSEE ALONG THE 500MB LOW TRACK. THIS AXIS POTENTIALLY COULD CREATE ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY CREATE DOWN TREE LIMBS/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MORE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. HAVEN'T HAD TO MUCH TO TIME TO CHECK FOR POTENTIAL CSI FORMING...BUT SEEING THE MODELS TRANSITION THE UPPER TROUGH FROM OPEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS CSI WOULD BE FAVORABLE JUST TO IT'S NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSNOW WOULD BE THE RESULT. THE STORM WILL LIFT OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 20S...WITH WINDCHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE REDUCED TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED SNOWPACK FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT SUN HOWEVER SHOULD START THE THAWING PROCESS.
