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Author Topic: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?  (Read 130805 times)

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Offline Clay

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #45 on: March 01, 2015, 09:24:53 PM »
The 0z NAM suggest 3-4" of snow and sleet for MEM/BNA Wed Night.

COBB results
MEM: .23 ZR .98 IP 1.1 SN
BNA: .18 ZR .53 IP .9 SN

Snow totals are probably too conservative.

#NAMdisclaimer
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 09:29:48 PM by Clay »

Offline Dave R

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #46 on: March 01, 2015, 10:00:35 PM »
OHX 8:34 pm

Quote
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z
NAM...18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...21Z SREF AND WPC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID
STATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR EARLY MARCH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS STILL REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND COULD
EASILY CHANGE...AS OF NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE
CWA COULD GO THROUGH ALL PHASES OF PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS THE INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT
ON TIMING WITH FRONT...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...AND THIS
ALONG WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AT 700MB WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP ENDS UP PREVAILING AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
ATTM...SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED!

SHAMBURGER
On the banks of the Harpeth
'10-'11: 13.5"
'11-'12: T
'12-'13: 1.3"
'13-'14: 1.3"
'14-'15: T
'15-'16: 8.75"
'16-'17: T
1/12/18: 0.9"
1/16/18: 2"

Offline draelius

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #47 on: March 01, 2015, 10:27:31 PM »
Been trying to think back and I cannot recall a freezing rain / sleet storm this late in the season for the mid-South. Does anyone recall one?

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #48 on: March 01, 2015, 11:39:37 PM »
Been trying to think back and I cannot recall a freezing rain / sleet storm this late in the season for the mid-South. Does anyone recall one?

Short memory lol. 5 inches of sleet here 3/2/14.

Offline Southwest of the Boro

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #49 on: March 01, 2015, 11:41:44 PM »
No, not this late.

Offline draelius

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #50 on: March 02, 2015, 12:00:25 AM »
Short memory lol. 5 inches of sleet here 3/2/14.

Duh. Didn't make it this far south, but yes, that would be one.

Offline Jilly

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #51 on: March 02, 2015, 12:40:07 AM »
How much snow did BNA get 3/13/93? (Trying to remember...)  ::pondering:: Thanks.
WA4CZD

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #52 on: March 02, 2015, 12:50:46 AM »

How much snow did BNA get 3/13/93? (Trying to remember...)  ::pondering:: Thanks.

Looks like 3" from Superstorm '93.

Amounts picked up quickly south and east of the city.


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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #53 on: March 02, 2015, 12:58:27 AM »
Quick review...basically all modeling on board tonight with a significant winter storm for the Mid-South and much of TN. Still need to pin down the timing...with the NAM/UKMET notably slower but even they are buying into the event itself. Obviously...the exact types and amounts are up in the air...but I'm getting the feeling this is looking more sleet-ish with a strong subfreezing layer that exceeds the -6C guideline for refreezing despite a stout warm nose holding on. GFS and Euro both suggest however a changeover to snow with at least a few inches possible.

Of course data will continue to see shifts in the runs to come...but the general consensus appears to be building. What to really look for in the days to come (besides the precip type issue) is where that likely enhanced QPF band sets up and moves...as that is where totals will be enhanced. So long as the CAA is as strong as modeled tonight in the 900-950 mb layer...profiles would switch to sleet quickly enough to where a 'hangup' in surface temperatures ala 3/2/14 in the icing zone due to latent heat processes would be much less likely.

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #54 on: March 02, 2015, 03:52:26 AM »
Winter Storm Watch from MEG Noon Wednesday until 6 AM Thursday

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #55 on: March 02, 2015, 04:16:45 AM »
Quote
OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT
ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO
WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS
EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OHX morning AFD.

The 6z NAM was slower with the timing and makes this more a late Wednesday night into Thursday morning event.

It did show quite a bit of sleet.

The 6z GFS continues to show a faster system and make this more of a Wednesday afternoon/evening event.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #56 on: March 02, 2015, 04:32:09 AM »
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities

90-95% for Nashville to see, at least, 1" of snow

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And the WPC is going for moderate to high potential for at least 4" across middle TN too.

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« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 04:35:13 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline JayCee

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #57 on: March 02, 2015, 05:33:36 AM »
Simulated radar of the 0z NAM valid for late Wednesday night.

(Attachment Link)

Everything you see in orange and red is, more than likely, heavy sleet.

Look at how expansive the precip field is BEHIND the front.

MUCH more precipitation behind the front than in front of the front.   ???
Anafront?

Quote
anafront


A front at which the warm air is ascending the frontal surface up to high altitudes.


With anafronts, precipitation may occur to the rear of the front and is sometimes associated with cyclogenesis.

Interesting... ::coffee::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline JayCee

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #58 on: March 02, 2015, 05:36:55 AM »
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities

90-95% for Nashville to see, at least, 1" of snow

(Attachment Link)

And the WPC is going for moderate to high potential for at least 4" across middle TN too.

Whatever ends up falling (hopefully snow), this looks to be mid/west Tennessee's winter weather event of the season.  ::applause::

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JayCee

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #59 on: March 02, 2015, 06:04:08 AM »
MRX's take:

Quote
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN ATMOSPHERIC BATTLE IS IN
THE WORKS THIS WEEK AS A WELCOME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BULGES NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGING A HINT OF SPRING TO START THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SEASONS BATTLE FOR DOMINANCE A DEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMOVE THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO WINTER. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME WARM AIR TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMPLIMENTS OF THE
PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
QUITE HIGH BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BY A
WARM FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE NATION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE DEEP
RIVER OF MOIST AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FADE AWAY WITH EACH MODEL RUN WITH
INSTABILITY LACKING SO TRIMMED BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER KEEPING IT
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS ALSO CONTINUE A TREND OF SLOWING THE ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE OOZING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEEP RIVER OF MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES LEADING TO A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION WITH MOISTURE TRAILING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOME SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
LATER MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER FOCUS ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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