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Author Topic: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?  (Read 124713 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2015, 08:25:38 AM »
So far it seems like more of the discussion has focused on areas southwest of us but the model images I've seen look like we're lined up for a solid snowfall in East TN as well.  Are we just too far out for the NWS discussions to start for East TN or is there more caution about whether or not the system makes it this far east?  The past couple of weeks have been a good education for me with much more discussion on here and more systems to track than I've seen before but I'm still a newbie.  Thoughts on the impact for East TN will be welcome.  ::coffee:: EDIT....and after posting this I saw the MRX info you shared; I need to read the whole thread before responding to things.

This has a decent depiction of how things could happen.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Right now, it would seem to me the heaviest snow totals could be slightly to our north and west.  But I'd say we'll see some accumulation.

Of course, in this situation, the Great Valley of Tennessee is tricky.  Cold, dense air sometimes has trouble getting over the Plateau and down into the valley.  It just depends on when/if it can get in here before the greatest lift, and the associated precipitation, exits to the east. 
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 08:35:07 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline SKEW-TIM

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2015, 08:38:44 AM »
I dub thee "THOR"
“You may be whatever you resolve to be.”
― Stonewall Jackson

Offline Eric

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2015, 09:01:21 AM »
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::
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Offline JayCee

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2015, 09:15:09 AM »
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::



Those look a little anemic to me....
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline mempho

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2015, 09:42:01 AM »
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::
That's 10.5 inches using the multiplier. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2015, 10:00:05 AM »
Well I am ready, let's get us that big snow for all of west and middle tn. And the east can go ahead and cash in again too as long as we score. Oops almost forgot one thing, my  ::popcorn::! LOL! ::snowman::

Offline Eric

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2015, 10:02:10 AM »
Huge temperature gradient.

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Offline Rich L.

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2015, 10:07:31 AM »
Cobb data for BNA from the 6z GFS:

2.1" SN
.10" ZR

Not...quite...sure I agree with those numbers.   ::coffee::

I don't know what those numbers mean...lol
-Rich Long

Offline Eric

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2015, 10:18:39 AM »
I don't know what those numbers mean...lol

Everyone's a comedian...unless you're being serious, Clark.
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Offline Eric

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2015, 10:34:34 AM »
12z GFS synopsis for BNA: column looks to become supportive of an all-snow solution around lunchtime on Wednesday before most of the moisture comes thorugh.  Per Curt and the text data, the qpf output is ~.35-.4 of liquid.  Under a projected ratio of 9-10:1, that's close to 4" of snow.  That's only one model run of many before Wednesday.  Take with a grain of salt (or two, if inclined).
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Kevin Terry

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2015, 10:38:06 AM »
For MEM...12z GFS is much closer to a pure sleet event with a warm nose around 750-800 mb...but a very strong subfreezing layer below it to allow for refreezing. There would be a changeover to snow...but probably after the heaviest QPF has exited. A good half inch or slightly more precip at temps below freezing...which reach MEM around 15z Wednesday.

GFS is close to a third wave that tracks just south of TN...across North MS/AL. If that could trend north...that would be more pure snow. That would be closer to the ECMWF solution last night...which a check of last night's 0z soundings indicate pure snow at both MEM and BNA...though MEM was a little close (but below the melting thresholding)

Offline snowdog

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2015, 10:49:03 AM »
Take with a grain of salt (or two, if inclined).

Was wondering why model watching was bad for blood pressure.  Now I know...too much salt intake.

Kevin Terry

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2015, 10:50:54 AM »
Would urge a little caution. Yes...its the NAM at 84 hours...but its much slower with the progression of the cold front and thus any frozen precip is well northwest of the region. While normally it could be written off...it's very much in-line with last night's 00z UKMET.

Kevin Terry

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #28 on: March 01, 2015, 10:59:42 AM »
12z UKMET is holding very strong to a NAM-like solution...I have to say I don't think we should assume too much about what could happen here yet...

Offline Michael

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #29 on: March 01, 2015, 01:21:22 PM »
Too much silence. GFS and EURO must not be good?


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