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Author Topic: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?  (Read 129665 times)

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Kevin Terry

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3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« on: February 28, 2015, 10:33:08 PM »
Is this the last threat of the season? Will I-40 be finally crushed?

Only time will tell....

Kevin Terry

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2015, 12:52:13 AM »
Is this the last threat of the season? Will I-40 be finally crushed?

Only time will tell....

0z Euro nicely answers the second question...thanks for playing along Euro!
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 12:55:43 AM by Kevin Terry »

Offline mempho

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2015, 04:13:25 AM »
Is this the last threat of the season? Will I-40 be finally crushed?

Only time will tell....
Excellent!  Hopefully, you just started the greatest thread inforum history!
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 04:24:42 AM by mempho »


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2015, 04:21:03 AM »
the 6z nam is going to be more in line with the euro... though still not in frame hour wise... but already at 81 o 84.. much more aggressive with precip n cold coming in... though still not in the nams wheel house... interesting to watch it follow suit. ::snowman::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mempho

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2015, 04:21:22 AM »
Euro is an epic crush job for the I40 corridor.  I'm sure the clown is HOF worthy.


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2015, 04:22:50 AM »
the 6z nam is going to be more in line with the euro... though still not in frame hour wise... but already at 81 o 84.. much more aggressive with precip n cold coming in... though still not in the nams wheel house... interesting to watch it follow suit. ::snowman::
The new king looks the same as the old king?


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2015, 04:26:41 AM »
The new king looks the same as the old king?
good question mempho... im liking the looks of the nam at the early stages... definelty more aggressive than latest gfs... which looks to be more in line with the euro... look for todays 12zgfs come back to its senses some today... if not surely by 0z tonight
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Coach B

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2015, 06:14:05 AM »
GFS looks like a significant winter storm to me. It is quicker with the front and precip than the EURO, GEM, and NAM.  GFS has freezing temps in the 40 corridor before noon Wednesday where the GEM and NAM look to be later in the evening before it gets going.

Offline Coach B

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2015, 06:42:38 AM »
HUN:
Quote
...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE ENTIRE
REGION -- LIKELY HIGHER THAN ANY WINTER PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE HAD THUS
FAR
....... THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS BEEN RAISED

OHX:
Quote
THE WEATHER GETS INCREASINGLY SLOPPY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE AND TEMPERATURES FALL.

MEG:
Quote
STILL LOOKING VERY
INTERESTING. THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS/06Z NAM PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPS. THE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH HANGS WELL BACK TO THE
WEST WHILE STRONG...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS POINTS TOWARD A GOOD
DEAL OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP. THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
WELL OVER AN INCH LIQUID BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE 06Z GFS HAS
LESS BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING...SLEET AND THE SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEPTH
DEEPENS FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO
TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP SEEMS POSSIBLE
OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE MIDSOUTH
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 06:46:31 AM by Coach B »

Offline Coach B

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2015, 06:53:01 AM »
BMX already out with a briefing highlighting the potential:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=mmbrief

Offline JayCee

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2015, 07:04:37 AM »
This set-up is a "Winter Classic" we haven't seen around these parts in quite some time.  It's not a quick hitting low that rushes through, but a long lasting-over running type event that will be interesting (fun) to track.  It differs from the last two ice events as well, as it's not warm air pushing into and over cold air that is already in place, but cold air intruding into a warm air mass. I would think (hope) that it means the amount of freezing rain would be minimal.   ::fingerscrossed::

I think we've all had our fill of freezing rain this season.  ::whistling::


« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 07:09:54 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JayCee

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2015, 07:08:38 AM »
From MRX:

Quote
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LOTS OF ACTION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS WINTER IS TRYING TO HANG ON BUT SPRING IS ON
THE WAY. THE METEOROLOGICAL RESPONSE WILL BE PERIODS OF TIGHT
THERMAL AND HEIGHT GRADIENT WHICH LEAD TO A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
SUPPLY OF ACTIVE WEATHER. TO START OFF...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING WITH
THE PROGRESSIVE BOUNDARY. AGAIN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO
LEADS TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN
EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER AND A TRAILING NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS STILL A
FEW DAYS OUT SO DETAILS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BUT
WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DOMINATING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2015, 07:18:05 AM »
This set-up is a "Winter Classic" we haven't seen around these parts in quite some time.  It's not a quick hitting low that rushes through, but a long lasting-over running type event that will be interesting (fun) to track.  It differs from the last two ice events as well, as it's not warm air pushing into and over cold air that is already in place, but cold air intruding into a warm air mass. I would think (hope) that it means the amount of freezing rain would be minimal.   ::fingerscrossed::

I think we've all had our fill of freezing rain this season.  ::whistling::

So far it seems like more of the discussion has focused on areas southwest of us but the model images I've seen look like we're lined up for a solid snowfall in East TN as well.  Are we just too far out for the NWS discussions to start for East TN or is there more caution about whether or not the system makes it this far east?  The past couple of weeks have been a good education for me with much more discussion on here and more systems to track than I've seen before but I'm still a newbie.  Thoughts on the impact for East TN will be welcome.  ::coffee:: EDIT....and after posting this I saw the MRX info you shared; I need to read the whole thread before responding to things.

Offline Adam

Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2015, 07:24:35 AM »
The 6z GFS was a truly horrible run for most of North Alabama. Huntsville goes from HR 90 to HR 102 with nothing but freezing rain. I really hope this does not happen in our area, but it has happened before and it will happen again. One thing I am curious about is where does the cold air get hung up. Last year we had serious problems with the cold air getting hung up in areas for multiple events. This seems like it is an extremely strong cold front though so it may not be any issue at all.
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 3/4/15 Winter Storm Potential - Because Why Not?
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2015, 07:36:08 AM »

HUN:
OHX:
MEG:

Wow... that is a big statement from HUN considering what has been seen already even in that area.


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