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Author Topic: Major River Flooding April-May'11  (Read 157552 times)

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Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #45 on: April 25, 2011, 10:59:43 AM »
Updated LMRFC 48-hour QPF...this will be factored into updated MS River forecasts shortly...

Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #46 on: April 25, 2011, 11:35:02 AM »
Hearing early information that MS River crests may be further raised again shortly in update coming momentarily...not sure how reliable but we'll see soon...2 more foot raise in Memphis crest will move it into a major flood and very close to record levels...

Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #47 on: April 25, 2011, 12:05:36 PM »
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2011/apr/25/near-record-flooding-memphis-along-mississippi-riv/

Quote
Memphis will experience near-record flooding along the Mississippi River early next month, and river stages could surpass the historic crest of the great flood of 1937 if the Midwest continues to receive heavy amounts of rain, forecasters said this morning.

The river currently is forecast to crest on May 8 at 44 feet -- the highest level since 1937. But when the forecast is updated later today, "it will go higher," said National Weather Service meteorologist Danny Gant.

The all-time record stage at Memphis of 48.7 feet, set on Feb. 10, 1937, is in jeopardy, Gant said.

The forecast already has prompted the cancellation of the 30th Annual Outdoors Inc. Canoe & Kayak Race, scheduled for May 7, because the parking area on Mud Island will be underwater, race director Joe Royer announced.

It's too early to predict how the high water might affect the Memphis In May International Festival on Tom Lee Park, but a river stage of around 50 feet would flood parts of Riverside Drive, Gant said. Other low-lying areas near Downtown, including The Pyramid parking lot and the U.S. Coast Guard facilities on Wolf River Harbor, also could be inundated.

Meantime, Col. Vernie Reichling, district commander for the Corps of Engineers in Memphis, announced stepped-up preparations to fight flooding along much of the Lower Mississippi River.

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #48 on: April 25, 2011, 01:28:00 PM »
Updated graphic from OHX:

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Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #49 on: April 25, 2011, 01:29:21 PM »
Quote
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG continues Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at St. Francis [AR] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG extends time of Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at Lake City [AR] valid at Apr 26, 7:00 PM CDT till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG extends time of Flood Warning for the St. Francis River at Madison [AR] valid at Apr 27, 11:40 PM CDT till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:40 AM CDT for the Obion River near Martin [TN] till Apr 28, 10:25 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 10:00 PM CDT for the Obion River near Obion [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 7:00 PM CDT for the Obion River near Bogota [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 4:16 PM CDT for the South Fork Forked Deer River at Jackson [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 9:34 PM CDT for the South Fork Forked Deer River near Halls [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 2:05 PM CDT for the Wolf River at Germantown [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:54 AM CDT for the Wolf River at Rossville [MS] till Apr 28, 7:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 3:00 PM CDT for the North Fork Forked Deer River at Dyersburg [TN] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 1:00 PM CDT for the Hatchie River near Bolivar [TN] till Apr 29, 1:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 29, 1:00 AM CDT for the Hatchie River at Rialto [TN] till Apr 29, 7:00 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 7:27 PM CDT for the Loosahatchie River at Arlington [TN] till Apr 28, 2:21 AM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 10:55 AM CDT for the Coldwater River near Sarah [MS] till Apr 28, 5:09 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 7:00 PM CDT for the Talahatchie River at Locopolis [MS] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 28, 11:00 PM CDT for the Talahatchie River near Swan Lake [MS] till further notice
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 8:36 AM CDT for the Little Talahatchie River at Etta [MS] till Apr 28, 6:13 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 5:59 AM CDT for the Town Creek at Tupelo [MS] till Apr 27, 9:26 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 27, 11:09 AM CDT for the Tombigbee River at Bigbee [MS] till Apr 28, 9:40 PM CDT
megchat   2011/04/25 1:27 PM   iembot   MEG issues Flood Warning valid at Apr 26, 11:00 PM CDT for the Tombigbee River near Amory [MS] till Apr 28, 6:00 PM CDT

Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #50 on: April 25, 2011, 01:48:10 PM »
MS River forecast has still not updated yet...running way late from the LMRFC...

Offline mempho

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #51 on: April 25, 2011, 01:52:37 PM »
MS River forecast has still not updated yet...running way late from the LMRFC...

A guy just came in to my office (as I'm office weatherman) to ask me why it would be running late.  I said that things often run late when they're looking at major events...not sure what else I could say. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline WFayetteTN

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #52 on: April 25, 2011, 02:17:50 PM »
A guy just came in to my office (as I'm office weatherman) to ask me why it would be running late.  I said that things often run late when they're looking at major events...not sure what else I could say. 

Id have to say they have bigger fish to fry. Come back to the lesser priority later.
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Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #53 on: April 25, 2011, 02:19:26 PM »
Id have to say they have bigger fish to fry. Come back to the lesser priority later.

MEG isn't in charge of the River forecasts...they only relay the forecasts and warnings. That lies with the LMRFC. All they do is river forecasts...so I don't know what's been keeping them. They have gotten the smaller river stuff as evidenced by all those warnings...nothing updated on the MS...

Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #54 on: April 25, 2011, 02:41:10 PM »
Press Conference upcoming at 3:00 PM from Memphis/Shelby County Mayors regarding MS River flood impacts on their jurisdiction.

Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #55 on: April 25, 2011, 02:45:21 PM »
New QPF forecast from the LMRFC...

Offline mempho

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #56 on: April 25, 2011, 02:58:29 PM »
Press Conference upcoming at 3:00 PM from Memphis/Shelby County Mayors regarding MS River flood impacts on their jurisdiction.

I have a quick question and you might be the only person who would know.  Anyway, if I look at the advanced hydrologic prediction center page for Memphis, I notice that they don't give any indicators of what happens beyond 48.0 feet other than noting that 48.7 feet is the record.  I'd assume that no more major events would occur if it happened to hit 50 or even 55 feet.  I realize that we would be talking about an extremely low priority event, but I would imagine that it's simply a matter of measuring elevation.  For instance, one thing I'd like to know is what it would take to flood homes on Mud Island but it might very well be that these are flood-proof locations since the primary driver of Memphis becoming a major city was it's "flood-proof" location right on the Mississippi River (flood plains of the Wolf/Loosahatchie Rivers notwithstanding...speaking primarily of downtown only here).

Furthermore, it appears to me that most of the water does flood somewhere and I'd assume that it primarily goes into the Arkansas side but I'd also be curious as to what the levels are for inundation for places like West Memphis and Marion.  

Anyway, the "current" (not so current) forecast is for 44.0 and we know what happens at 48.0 and that 48.7 is the record but, even if this is purely an academic exercise, I think it would be an interesting thing to know as concern will inevitably grow.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2011, 03:00:37 PM by mempho »


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #57 on: April 25, 2011, 03:02:03 PM »
I have a quick question and you might be the only person who would know.  Anyway, if I look at the advanced hydrologic prediction center page for Memphis, I notice that they don't give any indicators of what happens beyond 48.0 feet other than noting that 48.7 feet is the record.  I'd assume that no more major events would occur if it happened to hit 50 or even 55 feet.  I realize that we would be talking about an extremely low priority event, but I would imagine that it's simply a matter of measuring elevation.  For instance, one thing I'd like to know is what it would take to flood homes on Mud Island but it might very well be that these are flood-proof locations since the primary driver of Memphis becoming a major city was it's "flood-proof" location right on the Mississippi River (flood plains of the Wolf/Loosahatchie Rivers notwithstanding...speaking primarily of downtown only here).

Furthermore, it appears to me that most of the water does flood somewhere and I'd assume that it primarily goes into the Arkansas side but I'd also be curious as to what the levels are for inundation for places like West Memphis and Marion. 

Those are great questions but unfortunately I don't know much about what happens beyond what's on the AHPS page. My vague understanding is something like 55 feet would flood all of Mud Island and Harbor Town...and a similar level to start flooding well into Crittenden County (including West Memphis)...but even then I don't know that confidently. Hopefully we won't be testing above the record anyway...

Offline mempho

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #58 on: April 25, 2011, 03:05:47 PM »
Hopefully we won't be testing above the record anyway...

I hope not, as well.  Let me know if you happen to find out over the next few days when they're issuing forecasts that are (hopefully) well below the astronomical levels I was alluding to.


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Memphis Weather

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #59 on: April 25, 2011, 03:13:58 PM »
FWIW...it was noted on the previous page...but the Wolf and Loosahatchie rivers are expected to go into Minor Flooding in the next few days at Germantown and Arlington. Thus far...significant impacts are not expected but future rainfall will ultimately determine that. This will be separate to backwater flooding that will occur later in the week and especially next week that will mostly impact W and NW Shelby County. Whether significant impacts occur as far east as those two gages...TBD...

Several other area rivers will go into either Minor or Moderate Flooding in the next few days. The St. Francis River in AR will go into Major Flooding

 

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