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Author Topic: Major River Flooding April-May'11  (Read 148025 times)

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Offline WFayetteTN

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #30 on: April 25, 2011, 01:27:27 AM »
How?  Wouldn't that cause more water to go over the banks at Cairo, leaving less water flowing downstream toward Arkansas?

I dont know how it works either. I will try to get some clarification in the next few days and let you know. Logic would tell me that if you relieved the restrictions in one place and it flooded out, it would relieve pressure downstream. I also thought that 5-7 min was quite fast to get that far.  I honestly do not know.. will check though.

There was a breach near Marion before. I dont know the details (year, size, etc), but if that creates a weakness for a future breach, I would say this event would definitely test it.
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Offline harlequin

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2011, 01:32:10 AM »
If the river goes as high as forcasted now, I do not see us getting away with no levees breaking.  I am concerned about where I work.  Harrah's is actually on a natural lake and will likely be closed when the river crests.  We were about 6" away from closing in 2008.  As far as the other casinos I work at, we are inside the levee but the land is raised all around the casinos and they are on artificial ponds. The land is about 5' lower than the levee itself.  We may be pushing it with the river getting that high.

An interesting fact Tunica County is that it survived 1927 and 1937 fairly intact. 1937 had boils but they contained them. In 1927 the levee broke on the Arkansas side parallel to Tunica and then of course broke further downstream burying the lower Delta in up to 30 ft of water.

I'd imagine the casinos will have to close this time. I remember how high 2008 was. In 1997 some casinos closed and never came back, but there weren't the permanent type structures Tunica has now.

Offline harlequin

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2011, 01:34:43 AM »
Hah, well glad to see I'm not the only one confused. Interesting nonetheless.

Offline Curt

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2011, 03:32:56 AM »
I am researching more info, but I do believe that in addition to the New Madrid Floodway, there is another major floodway that will drain several basins(MS, St. Francis) through the agricultural and mostly uninhabited lands if the Missouri bootheel into the Big Lake NWR in northern Missisippi County Arkansas. Big Lake is a vast area of water and swamplands, that if flooded, I would guess cause major flooding through the MS alluvial plain. I need to look at more info to be specific though.

This diversion system along with the inability of tributaries of east Arkansas to drain into the swollen MS is what I would believe cause the most problems on the west side of the MS River. My understanding is that in both '27 (much less protection from the Army Corp) and '37, much of Eastern Arkansas on both sides of Crowley's Ridge were covered with some depth of water. Perhaps we need to look in this case at not just the MS, but the St. Francis and Tyronza, especially for Crittenden Co problems.



From the encyclopedia of Arkansas History and Culture (http://www.encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/entry-detail.aspx?entryID=4878):

Quote
Arkansas’s floodwaters came from tributary streams no longer able to drain effectively due to the cresting Mississippi River. Specifically, Bayou de View as well as the Black, Cache, L’Anguille, Little Red, Spring, Strawberry, St. Francis, Tyronza, and White rivers spilled across agriculture terrain mostly bare of crops that time of year. While the Arkansas River was at flood stage at Van Buren (Crawford County) for only one day, the White River exceeded flood stages below Calico Rock (Izard County), and the St. Francis River had considerable flooding from January into March. The largely rural, agricultural Delta saw the spread of the floodwaters into tenants’ and sharecroppers’ homes and communities already struggling from the effects of drought, the Great Depression, and the Dust Bowl.

« Last Edit: April 25, 2011, 03:39:26 AM by Curt »

Offline mempho

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #34 on: April 25, 2011, 07:21:06 AM »
Its over here:
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128045.html#msg128045

Thanks....I thought it was really odd that noone was talking about this one and I guess I chalked it up to a combination of severe fatigue and Easter weekend.


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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #35 on: April 25, 2011, 07:59:21 AM »
It looks to me like the highest totals will be in the MO bootheel. Latest HPC forecast has an additional 6-8 inches on top of the 6 or so inches that has already fallen. HPC forecasts only represent basin-average rainfall so isolated amounts are likely to be much higher.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #36 on: April 25, 2011, 08:05:15 AM »
The problem to pin down are the locations that could see training thunderstorms...not just rain. Whoever gets those will see a drastic increase in rainfall totals not forecasted by the HPC maps or the local offices.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #37 on: April 25, 2011, 08:13:04 AM »
all depends were the warm frontal boundary lies at. were the training will be takiing place. looks to be across the boothill reachiing through very lower ohio valley region.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2011, 08:24:57 AM »
The problem to pin down are the locations that could see training thunderstorms...not just rain. Whoever gets those will see a drastic increase in rainfall totals not forecasted by the HPC maps or the local offices.

Yep. Everyone got a lot of rain in West and Middle Tennessee last May, but the worst stuff was on an access from just west of Franklin up to just east of Hendersonville, if I remember correctly. We had two separate lines of intense thunderstorms that just sat on that area for hours with some of the most intense rain I've seen.

Sunday morning, which is when the worst flooding occurred in East Nashville, I was sitting on the porch watching the monsoon and manhole covers started popping up because the sewers were full.
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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2011, 08:49:43 AM »
...BREAKING...

Quote
POPLAR BLUFF, MO (KAIT) – The Poplar Bluff Police Department has ordered a mandatory evacuation for the southern portion of Poplar Bluff.

According to the Poplar Bluff Police Department, the levee on Black River near Butler County Road 607 has been compromised, and a catastrophic failure was imminent.

The areas included in the mandatory evacuation are between the areas south of the Black River, and East of Highway WW (Ditch Road.)

The police are asking residents who live in this area to move to higher ground immediately. They're also asking residents east of Highway WW to monitor the water levels in their neighborhood and to make preparations to move if necessary.

A shelter has been set up at the Black River Coliseum.

If you have any questions or concerns you're asked to contact the Poplar Bluff Police Department at 573-686-8685.

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #40 on: April 25, 2011, 08:54:49 AM »
If there's any good news...portions of the OH Valley are not getting the rain amounts they were expected to. That could have eventual downstream effects into the MS. We'll see what the updated river forecasts in a few hours looks like...

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2011, 09:56:55 AM »
Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER IN BUTLER COUNTY
MISSOURI

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 927 AM CDT...THE FAILURE OF A LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER WAS
REPORTED BY BUTLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THE LOCATION OF THE
LEVEE FAILURE WAS NEAR COUNTY ROAD 607 SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR
BLUFF.

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #42 on: April 25, 2011, 10:00:27 AM »
KAIT is reporting more than 1000 homes are being evacuated in Poplar Bluff...

Offline toastido

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #43 on: April 25, 2011, 10:06:51 AM »
KAIT is reporting more than 1000 homes are being evacuated in Poplar Bluff...

And to think... this thing is just getting started... ::drowning::
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #44 on: April 25, 2011, 10:14:16 AM »
I looked at the map, and Poplar Bluff is not on the Mississippi but on a tributary that drains into the St. Francis River watershed, which ultimately flows into the Mississippi River well south of Memphis.  So, the water there won't immediately affect TN counties.  However, there are plenty of other tributaries and the Mississippi itself that are carrying similar runoff downstream...
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