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Author Topic: Major River Flooding April-May'11  (Read 155152 times)

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Offline mempho

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2011, 08:34:00 PM »
Also, on a side note...it looks like Memphis in May might be hit by yet another weather event.  A major river flood that floods Tom Lee Park could wipe the whole event out. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2011, 08:35:26 PM »
MEG has also issued a PDS Flash Flood Watch.  There is not yet a thread about the severe weather threat over the next few days (25th thru the 27th), but I think both the flooding and the severe could each be major events at this time and this could be a big deal for all of us. 
thats why i think this system is called, pick your own poison storm threat. tornadoes, floods, wind damage and large hail. yeah there is a thread mempho 25th to 27th. severe threat.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline WFayetteTN

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2011, 08:36:56 PM »
  There is not yet a thread about the severe weather threat over the next few days (25th thru the 27th),

Its over here:
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2890.msg128045.html#msg128045
Quote from: Thundersnow
Bummer... I'll miss the familiar urgency of the all caps regardless of the real urgency.
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING FAIR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.

Offline harlequin

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2011, 09:56:05 PM »
Also, on a side note...it looks like Memphis in May might be hit by yet another weather event.  A major river flood that floods Tom Lee Park could wipe the whole event out. 

If the Mississippi stays within forecast levels then Tom Lee Park shouldn't be flooded, and if it does I don't think it would flood until after the concerts. But I wonder if the high volume or danger from such high water would affect anything. Plus some models are showing a heavy rain threat next weekend too.

Offline marjl21

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2011, 10:32:04 PM »
If the Mississippi stays within forecast levels then Tom Lee Park shouldn't be flooded, and if it does I don't think it would flood until after the concerts. But I wonder if the high volume or danger from such high water would affect anything. Plus some models are showing a heavy rain threat next weekend too.

Music fest will be fine... The concern would be for BBQ fest on May 12-14. Of course, if Tom Lee Park is flooded, my first floor apartment on Mud Island will probably be flooded as well. I'll try to post pics of Mud Island as the water rises... Already out of it's banks onto the lower level of the river park.

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #20 on: April 24, 2011, 10:41:50 PM »
As of now...the river crest on Memphis is forecast to be 5/8. I believe that's the one weekend that nothing is happening on Tom Lee Park. Couldn't time it better ;)

As mentioned...needs to get to 48 feet to flood out Tom Lee Park and Riverside Drive. So far...that is not forecast...but I wouldn't rule it out if QPF is much more than currently forecast. Also have to remember river forecasts only account for next 48 hours of QPF (normally 24...but they are extending it for this event)...and Today's crest was updated this morning...so it hasn't factored in anything expected Tuesday-Wednesday yet. Should things hold...the crest will likely go up further.

Offline Curt

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2011, 10:55:45 PM »

Quote
Hey guys... Id like to share how serious this is for my extended family. My step-dad's parents have lived at an run Daily's Boat Dock and Island 40 Chute in Marion since at least as far back as the 70s... Im guessing that they have always lived over there. When the river gets high, they load up bass boats with their belongings that cant get wet and tie them to the house. When they first built over there, the river came up high enough to go up half way up the walls. They then had the house lifted, and put the garage under the house. As the water rises, it never really gets into the house...

My step dad tells stories of being in high school and having to row the boat to the levee to catch the bus.. or his mom would take the boat to the levee and hop in the car to go to the store, and boat her groceries back to the house.

But this River flooding is going to be bad. They are currently packing up all their belongings, all their furniture, and even the carpet. They fully expect the river to sweep the house off its foundation. The 30 acres of land... the 10 acres of pecan trees.. They say will be useless when the river goes down.

My step dad said that if the levee breaks at Cairo IL it will take 5-7 minutes for Marion AR to flood. If the levee breaks at Marion, the river will extend all the way over to the Court House and sweep all the houses off their foundations.

Its a very scary thought for me, thinking about my step dads parents. The boat dock was their business and to walk away from that is a wild thought.

My step dad is in farming. He said that if they breached the levee up north somewhere, it probably will not help to relieve any of the pressure down there. The levee would break before it was topped, because as water saturates the bottom it would act like a sand castle with waves running along side the wall.


Goodness Chris. I hope the best for your family.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2011, 11:02:40 PM by Curt »

Offline Curt

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2011, 11:14:58 PM »
Here is some info about the New Madrid Floodway. Its basically ag land 35 miles long designed to flood on purpose when MS River overflows. I dont know of it has been used since its design in 1928. I bet its about to be on "go" mode in the near future.

Quote
The Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway is a component of the Mississippi River and Tributaries (MR&T) Project, and is located on the west bank of the Mississippi River in southeast Missouri just below the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The construction and operation of the floodway was authorized by the 1928 Flood Control Act and later modified by the 1965 Flood Control Act. The purpose of the floodway is to lower flood stages upstream and adjacent to the floodway during major flood events. The Floodway is some 35 miles in length and varies from 4 to 12 miles in width. It comprises about 205 square miles of alluvial valley land. The primary features of the floodway are the setback (mainline) levee, which extends from Birds Point, Missouri, to New Madrid, Missouri, and the frontline levee which is located on the west bank of the river and generally follows its alignment. Within the frontline levee, there are two fuseplug sections. These sections were designed and built 2 feet flower than the remaining portions of the frontline levee. The upper fuseplug section is 11 miles in length and is located in the northernmost reach of the frontline levee. The lower fuseplug is 5 miles in length and is located in the extreme lower end of the frontline levee. In addition, there is an existing 1500-foot gap which is located between the setback levee and the end of the frontline levee. This opening currently provides a drainage outlet for interior run-off and allows flood backwaters to enter the floodway.  
  
The existing Plan of Operation for the Floodway was reviewed by Missouri state officials in November 1985 and approved by the President, MRC, in January 1986. The plan required modification to the frontline levee which includes raising 12,500 feet of the upper fuseplug and 7,500 feet of the lower fuseplug and installing horizontal polyethylene pipe in three crevasse locations. These crevasse locations are designated as Inflow, Inflow/Outflow No. 1 and Inflow/Outflow No. 2. In addition to the modifications to the frontline levee, all materials, including the blasting agent which will be pumped into the pipes in the levee, and equipment necessary to place the floodway into operation have been acquired by the Memphis District.
  
In order to assure adequate water access to the crevasse sites access lanes are required from the Mississippi River to and along the designated crevasses. With a project design flood rate of rise, approximately 2 feet per day, initial preparation of floodway is required when the stage at the Cairo, IL, gage is approximately 59 feet; completion of preparation of the Inflow Crevasse at 60 feet; and operation of the floodway begins upon order of the President, MRC.

Cairo is estimated to have a record crest at 60 feet.

« Last Edit: April 24, 2011, 11:22:29 PM by Curt »

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #23 on: April 25, 2011, 12:02:10 AM »
Hey guys... Id like to share how serious this is for my extended family. My step-dad's parents have lived at an run Daily's Boat Dock and Island 40 Chute in Marion since at least as far back as the 70s... Im guessing that they have always lived over there. When the river gets high, they load up bass boats with their belongings that cant get wet and tie them to the house. When they first built over there, the river came up high enough to go up half way up the walls. They then had the house lifted, and put the garage under the house. As the water rises, it never really gets into the house...

My step dad tells stories of being in high school and having to row the boat to the levee to catch the bus.. or his mom would take the boat to the levee and hop in the car to go to the store, and boat her groceries back to the house.

But this River flooding is going to be bad. They are currently packing up all their belongings, all their furniture, and even the carpet. They fully expect the river to sweep the house off its foundation. The 30 acres of land... the 10 acres of pecan trees.. They say will be useless when the river goes down.

My step dad said that if the levee breaks at Cairo IL it will take 5-7 minutes for Marion AR to flood. If the levee breaks at Marion, the river will extend all the way over to the Court House and sweep all the houses off their foundations.

Its a very scary thought for me, thinking about my step dads parents. The boat dock was their business and to walk away from that is a wild thought.

My step dad is in farming. He said that if they breached the levee up north somewhere, it probably will not help to relieve any of the pressure down there. The levee would break before it was topped, because as water saturates the bottom it would act like a sand castle with waves running along side the wall.

When I was at MEG in March 2008 during that big flood event...they were being advised to closely monitor for a possible levee break at Cairo then. I actually don't know if that ever got out publicly. They were very concerned about it. Fortunately it didn't happen. The river only reached 53' feet then though...hopefully it can hold up again.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #24 on: April 25, 2011, 12:13:06 AM »
When I was at MEG in March 2008 during that big flood event...they were being advised to closely monitor for a possible levee break at Cairo then. I actually don't know if that ever got out publicly. They were very concerned about it. Fortunately it didn't happen. The river only reached 53' feet then though...hopefully it can hold up again.

If the river goes as high as forcasted now, I do not see us getting away with no levees breaking.  I am concerned about where I work.  Harrah's is actually on a natural lake and will likely be closed when the river crests.  We were about 6" away from closing in 2008.  As far as the other casinos I work at, we are inside the levee but the land is raised all around the casinos and they are on artificial ponds. The land is about 5' lower than the levee itself.  We may be pushing it with the river getting that high.

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #25 on: April 25, 2011, 12:23:10 AM »
If the river goes as high as forcasted now, I do not see us getting away with no levees breaking.  I am concerned about where I work.  Harrah's is actually on a natural lake and will likely be closed when the river crests.  We were about 6" away from closing in 2008.  As far as the other casinos I work at, we are inside the levee but the land is raised all around the casinos and they are on artificial ponds. The land is about 5' lower than the levee itself.  We may be pushing it with the river getting that high.

Unfortunately...you're correct. Weaker levee systems at the least will likely see some breaching and perhaps could just be completely overtopped. We saw this in 2008...2009 and 2010 in a few cases that may not be as extreme as this one will be. Certainly the risk is there and hopefully people will be properly advised of what to do just in case it happens. As is standard...levee or dam breaches and overtoppings will require a Flash Flood Warning by the WFO as an addition to whatever was already the case if/when they occur.

The other big problem will be backwater flooding. Here in Shelby County...the Wolf and Loosahatchie are going to create big problems in at least NW/W Shelby County. I'm not sure honestly how far East this could work with these levels. This will of course be repeated in every county adjacent to the river...with the worst effects upstream. The Missouri Bootheel and NW TN could be severely impacted with extensive flooding...full evacuations of towns may be required there in a few cases.

Offline harlequin

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #26 on: April 25, 2011, 01:09:09 AM »
When I was at MEG in March 2008 during that big flood event...they were being advised to closely monitor for a possible levee break at Cairo then. I actually don't know if that ever got out publicly. They were very concerned about it. Fortunately it didn't happen. The river only reached 53' feet then though...hopefully it can hold up again.

I don't how a break at Cairo would have bad consequences several counties downstream. I thought it was a typo in WFayetteTN's post the first time. A break at Cairo would obviously be awful for surrounding Cairo but would a break cause flooding all the way to Crittenden County? Am I reading the context wrong?

I'm curious as to backwater flooding in Shelby though. The Wolf is only a couple miles north of me here in Midtown. I'm assuming the Wolf in western Shelby is pretty protected since it's so populated.

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #27 on: April 25, 2011, 01:10:32 AM »
I don't how a break at Cairo would have bad consequences several counties downstream. I thought it was a typo in WFayetteTN's post the first time. A break at Cairo would obviously be awful for surrounding Cairo but would a break cause flooding all the way to Crittenden County? Am I reading the context wrong?

I'm curious as to backwater flooding in Shelby though. The Wolf is only a couple miles north of me here in Midtown. I'm assuming the Wolf in western Shelby is pretty protected since it's so populated.

I'm not sure myself...but we were notified that a break upstream at Cairo would cause rapid rises all the way downstream the river to at least the Caruthersville and Tiptonville stages...so apparently there is some risk if it breaks...not sure if this may be outdated now by newer technology and developments or so forth.

Offline beneficii

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #28 on: April 25, 2011, 01:14:25 AM »
I'm not sure myself...but we were notified that a break upstream at Cairo would cause rapid rises all the way downstream the river to at least the Caruthersville and Tiptonville stages...so apparently there is some risk if it breaks...not sure if this may be outdated now by newer technology and developments or so forth.

How?  Wouldn't that cause more water to go over the banks at Cairo, leaving less water flowing downstream toward Arkansas?

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Re: Possible Major River Flooding April-May'11
« Reply #29 on: April 25, 2011, 01:15:38 AM »
How?  Wouldn't that cause more water to go over the banks at Cairo, leaving less water flowing downstream toward Arkansas?

Like I said...I don't honestly know. This was relayed through ACE during the 2008 flood event within a conference call.

 

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