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Author Topic: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)  (Read 655831 times)

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Offline Math/Met

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Re: Historic Tornado Outbreak: 4/27/11
« Reply #2730 on: July 20, 2011, 03:45:17 PM »
Most of the time, downsloping winds will weaken precipitation and storms as they move into that area.  However, I have always heard stories of another tornado that went across Greene Mountain many years ago. It kind of makes me wonder if some of the enhanced and backed low level winds (due to the terrain) might occasionally act to enhance the wind profile in that localized area when a supercell is able to survive the other negative effects.

If the surface winds in all other areas are south at 15-20 mph, the winds in southern Greene County may be southeast at 30-40mph with 60mph gusts (for example). I have always wondered what would happen if a supercell would track along that area. Two supercells moved across that area Wednesday night, and both had a significant increase in rotation as they crossed the Camp Creek area.

Here is a video from the Greeneville Sun website. As many of you know, I am very interested in mountain waves.  I think the comments from David Hotz (NWS meteorologist) are particularly interesting in reference to my post. Glad to hear that others are considering this theory as well.

http://greenevillesun.com/videos/678

Online mamMATTus

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2731 on: October 03, 2011, 01:48:27 PM »
Looking back through all the pages, I still have a hard time believing this happened. I still can't wrap my head around it. Scariest day of my life ever.

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2732 on: October 03, 2011, 06:45:30 PM »
One of the things that jumped out at me was during the latest Stormchasers show Dixie Alley outbreak, I've NEVER seen those guys so scared. Some of them were literally just wanting to get the heck outta there, not that I blame them. And on that note, I once again heard the sound bite of a news lady describing the severity of the storms by saying "with near hurricane-force winds." If only they had been merely hurricane force.

Online mamMATTus

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2733 on: October 27, 2011, 01:49:10 PM »
Since it has been 6 months now(WOW!) the Chattanooga Times Free Press has a front page article about how people and places are recovering. I thought everyone here might be interested in reading not only that, but the article about severe outbreaks on the increase. "Tornado Alley" has shifted east and that severe storms will continue to be the new norm...stuff we pretty much already know.

What I'm caught off guard by is the fact that this article states that there will be more of these outbreaks in the future. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these supposed to be once/twice in 100 year events?

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2011/oct/27/experts-more-superstorms-likely/

Offline Crockett

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2734 on: October 27, 2011, 05:32:25 PM »

What I'm caught off guard by is the fact that this article states that there will be more of these outbreaks in the future. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these supposed to be once/twice in 100 year events?


Statements like these super outbreaks increasing are nothing but propaganda. Worse than that, it's just blind speculation...usually by folks who have an agenda.

Offline toastido

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2735 on: November 18, 2011, 10:26:51 PM »
Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10150938952110314

This is from Tuscaloosa, AL.
<a href="http://v5.tinypic.com/player.swf?file=xfoied&amp;s=5&amp;ap=0&amp;nt=0&amp;os=1&amp;fms=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://v5.tinypic.com/player.swf?file=xfoied&amp;s=5&amp;ap=0&amp;nt=0&amp;os=1&amp;fms=1</a>

There's no audio, but it's crazy footage.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2011, 10:31:23 PM by toastido »
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Offline justinmundie

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2736 on: November 19, 2011, 07:30:50 AM »
THis is still the best footage in my opinion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sZJBxHiCRs
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Offline harlequin

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2737 on: November 20, 2011, 07:38:15 PM »
THis is still the best footage in my opinion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sZJBxHiCRs

Wow. I'm glad it didn't go any closer to them. Amazing footage, but they really should have been actively seeking shelter.

Offline Johnny

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2738 on: November 21, 2011, 11:16:03 AM »
THis is still the best footage in my opinion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sZJBxHiCRs

That's crazy for sure. If it would have came at them, or if it was wider..::wow::..lucky people. But seriously, this is how a good bit of the fatalities happen, people trying to look out and get a glimpse of it, and boom. They need to be taking shelter. But I guess there's just not much that we can do to get people to heed the warnings more. It is mostly because of warnings on storms that didn't produce, and if it starts happening too often, then the public just more or less ignores the warnings because in the past they didn't play out, etc. Long story short, hopefully after this past outbreak people will respond to warnings more eagerly. Yeah I know we all probably knew this, just saying what was on my mind.
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Offline bugalou

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2739 on: December 28, 2011, 05:15:05 PM »
I found this tidbit from JAN today.  I have not seen it posted yet, but mods feel free to delete if it is a repost:

Quote
133
NOUS44 KJAN 051837
PNSJAN

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...TORNADO DAMAGE SUMMARY UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

...TORNADO FROM NESHOBA COUNTY TO NOXUBEE COUNTY ON APRIL 27TH
UPGRADED TO EF-5 BASED ON ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION...

BASED ON A REVIEW OF DAMAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED IN NESHOBA...
KEMPER...WINSTON AND NOXUBEE COUNTIES BY METEOROLOGISTS WITH
EXPERTISE IN VIOLENT TORNADO DAMAGE ANALYSIS...IT HAS BEEN
DETERMINED THAT THIS TORNADO SHOULD BE RATED AS AN EF-5. THE BASIS
FOR THE UPGRADE IS FOUNDED UPON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS:

IN TWO LOCATIONS...THE TORNADO ACTUALLY GOUGED OUT LARGE SECTIONS OF
THE GROUND. IN ONE SPOT IN NORTHEAST NESHOBA COUNTY...THE GROUND WAS
DUG OUT TO A DEPTH OF AROUND 2 FEET OVER AN AREA APPROXIMATELY 25-50
YARDS WIDE AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED YARDS LONG.
SIMILAR GOUGES...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS LONG OR DEEP...WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN EXTREME
NORTHWEST KEMPER COUNTY. WHILE THE EXACT MECHANISM THAT CAUSED THIS
DAMAGE IS UNCLEAR...
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS TYPE OF GROUND DAMAGE
IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EF-5 TORNADOES.

IN THE AREA OF NORTHWEST KEMPER COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND GOUGING WAS
OBSERVED...THERE WAS ALSO AN AREA WHERE PAVEMENT WAS REMOVED FROM
THE GROUND
. WHILE THIS TYPE OF DAMAGE CAN BE CAUSED BY TORNADOES OF
LESS THAN EF-5 INTENSITY...THE FACT THAT PIECES OF ASPHALT WERE
FOUND AT A SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE AWAY...BOTH UPWIND AND DOWNWIND OF
THE ROAD...ARGUES FOR EXTREME WIND SPEEDS. SIMILAR TYPE DAMAGE WAS
ALSO OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NOXUBEE COUNTY.

FINALLY...EXTREME VEHICLE DAMAGE OF THE TYPE NORMALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH EF-5 TORNADOES WAS OBSERVED.  THIS INCLUDED NEW VEHICLES BEING
MOVED MORE THAN 100 YARDS FROM WHERE THEY STARTED...AND BEING LEFT
IN A NEARLY UNRECOGNIZABLE STATE.


THE UPGRADING OF THIS TORNADO TO AN EF-5 MEANS THAT THIS IS THE
FIRST EF-5 TORNADO IN THE NWS JACKSON SERVICE AREA SINCE THE
CANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO ON MAY 3...1966. ADDITIONALLY...THIS MARKS
THE FIRST TIME SINCE STATISTICS HAVE BEEN KEPT THAT TWO EF-5
TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECORDED ON THE SAME DAY IN MISSISSIPPI
...WITH
THE TORNADO IN SMITHVILLE ALSO RATED AN EF-5.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO...INCLUDING PICTURES AND VIDEO
OF THE DAMAGE...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN
(LOWER CASE) AND CLICK ON THE APRIL 25-27TH TORNADO OUTBREAK LINK IN
THE HEADLINE SECTION AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

COUNTY/PARISH: NESHOBA...KEMPER...WINSTON...AND NOXUBEE
BEGINNING POINT: 1 N PHILADELPHIA AT 230 PM
ENDING POINT: 6 SE MASHULAVILLE AT 300 PM
RATING: EF-5
MAX ESTIMATED WINDS 205 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 29 MILES
MAXIMUM WIDTH: .5 MILE
FATALITIES: 3
INJURIES: 8 (AT LEAST)

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE:

THIS TORNADO CAUSED A PATH OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN NORTHEAST NESHOBA,
EXTREME NORTHWEST KEMPER, EXTREME SOUTHEAST WINSTON, AND SOUTHWEST
NOXUBEE COUNTIES. THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN A SEVERAL MILE
AREA FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST NESHOBA COUNTY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
WINSTON COUNTY. THE THREE FATALITIES OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST KEMPER
COUNTY WHEN A STRAPPED DOWN DOUBLEWIDE MOBILE HOME WAS THROWN A
DISTANCE OF APPROXIMATELY 300 YARDS INTO A TREELINE, AND THEN
OBLITERATED WITH THE DEBRIS AND FRAMING SCATTERED MANY HUNDREDS OF
YARDS DOWN THE PATH. THERE WAS NO INDICATION OF GROUND IMPACTS
BETWEEN THE ORIGINAL SITE OF THE MOBILE HOME AND WHERE IT ENDED UP
TO INDICATE THAT THE MOBILE HOME BOUNCED EXTENSIVELY AS IT TRAVELED.
TWO TRADITIONAL FRAME BRICK HOMES IN SOUTHEAST WINSTON COUNTY WERE
COMPLETELY LEVELED WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL PARTS OF INTERIOR WALLS
STANDING. NEW VEHICLES WERE THROWN OR ROLLED HUNDREDS OF YARDS
BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO TREES AND LEFT ALMOST BEYOND RECOGNITION.

IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NESHOBA AND NORTHWEST KEMPER COUNTIES, THERE
WAS VERY HIGH END TREE DAMAGE WITH EXTENSIVE DENUDING AND DEBARKING
OF TREES, ALONG WITH AREAS WHERE THE GROUND WAS SCOURED OUT TO A
DEPTH OF TWO FEET IN PLACES, AND ASPHALT WAS SCOURED OFF PAVEMENT.


THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE METEOROLOGISTS THAT REVIEWED THE
DAMAGE INFORMATION TO ASSIST IN MAKING THIS RATING...AND ALSO THE
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WHO HELPED IN GATHERING ALL OF THIS INFORMATION.

$$

AEG

Offline ChrisPC

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2740 on: December 29, 2011, 11:23:56 AM »
I found this tidbit from JAN today.  I have not seen it posted yet, but mods feel free to delete if it is a repost:
Someone posted a photo of it on TW. It looked just like someone bulldozed nearly an acre...
« Last Edit: December 29, 2011, 12:28:44 PM by ChrisPC »

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2741 on: March 04, 2012, 12:05:51 PM »
Apologies for the large bump...but some info I wanted to share.

This past week was the National Severe Weather Workshop in Norman OK. Like the Severe Storms Symposium at MSU this weekend...a LOT of focus on April 27. Great presentations from both I'm already hearing about...and I suspect we'll hear/see more from this in the coming days/weeks.

One standout though...Jim LaDue at NOAA/WDTB...gave a great talk about the difficulties in going EF4 vs EF5, especially on April 27. He was the national expert at many of the violent tornado sites. He indicated that Tuscaloosa was by far the hardest rating he's had to deal with...and that they were VERY close to going EF5 based on damage at that apartment complex. They actually had three separate teams survey it and 2/3 went high EF4...the other split between EF4 and EF5.

What held them back overall...4 DOD indicators of EF5 were not present that were at most other EF5 events. They are (and this is good for future reference): Home debris pulverization, shrubbery debarked (not just trees), ground scouring, and vehicles tossed at long distances. Given this and the split at the apartment complex...they held at EF4.

He also indicated the easiest to classify EF5 was Smithville, MS. All DOD indicators were present but what was most apparent was the case of the Ford Expedition being tossed 1/2 mile...slamming into the town's water tower...then being carried an additional 1/4 mile. The clear-cut nature of this made its upgrade the first of all tornadoes from 4/27...just two days after the event.

Hopefully this (and other) presentations will be uploaded soon...
« Last Edit: March 04, 2012, 12:09:35 PM by Kevin »

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2742 on: March 05, 2012, 11:33:25 PM »
Apologies for the large bump...but some info I wanted to share.

This past week was the National Severe Weather Workshop in Norman OK. Like the Severe Storms Symposium at MSU this weekend...a LOT of focus on April 27. Great presentations from both I'm already hearing about...and I suspect we'll hear/see more from this in the coming days/weeks.

One standout though...Jim LaDue at NOAA/WDTB...gave a great talk about the difficulties in going EF4 vs EF5, especially on April 27. He was the national expert at many of the violent tornado sites. He indicated that Tuscaloosa was by far the hardest rating he's had to deal with...and that they were VERY close to going EF5 based on damage at that apartment complex. They actually had three separate teams survey it and 2/3 went high EF4...the other split between EF4 and EF5.

What held them back overall...4 DOD indicators of EF5 were not present that were at most other EF5 events. They are (and this is good for future reference): Home debris pulverization, shrubbery debarked (not just trees), ground scouring, and vehicles tossed at long distances. Given this and the split at the apartment complex...they held at EF4.

He also indicated the easiest to classify EF5 was Smithville, MS. All DOD indicators were present but what was most apparent was the case of the Ford Expedition being tossed 1/2 mile...slamming into the town's water tower...then being carried an additional 1/4 mile. The clear-cut nature of this made its upgrade the first of all tornadoes from 4/27...just two days after the event.

Hopefully this (and other) presentations will be uploaded soon...

Did they ever check to the northeast of Tuscaloosa where radar indicated the tornado intensified over that area? Plus, wouldn't the fact of the density of homes, buildings and trees in Tuscaloosa as compared to most areas normally hit by tornadoes figure into the determination? I would think that with all of the houses, apartments and stores that were so close together and  destroyed that there was no way to have swept slabs as there was a lot of cross-contamination, so to speak. It's not so hard to have a clean slab when the next house is a hundred yards away. I visited Phil Campbell and Hackleburg a few days after the 27th and it was much easier to see EF-5 damage because here was a house, gone. A couple of hundred feet away, another house unshielded by other structures, gone. In Tuscaloosa it looked like the world's largest dump truck drove through town with the bed up and the back gate open. I doubt they took time to do forensic testing to see if a pile of splinters on a foundation belonged to that house or one of ten others in the immediate vicinity. I suspect if Smithville, Ms was as congested as Tuscaloosa, that truck would have never made it very far before it would have slammed into something else before it got very far, let alone half a mile.

As I've seen it pointed out in different ways, rating a tornado is an inexact science. Dr Forbes said he saw lots of examples of EF-5 damage on the 29th. Maybe seeing it get rated a 4 made him reevaluate April 3, 1974. In one of his blogs, he now says many of the tornadoes during that outbreak would have been dropped a notch if using today's standards.

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2743 on: March 05, 2012, 11:45:18 PM »
Did they ever check to the northeast of Tuscaloosa where radar indicated the tornado intensified over that area? Plus, wouldn't the fact of the density of homes, buildings and trees in Tuscaloosa as compared to most areas normally hit by tornadoes figure into the determination? I would think that with all of the houses, apartments and stores that were so close together and  destroyed that there was no way to have swept slabs as there was a lot of cross-contamination, so to speak. It's not so hard to have a clean slab when the next house is a hundred yards away. I visited Phil Campbell and Hackleburg a few days after the 27th and it was much easier to see EF-5 damage because here was a house, gone. A couple of hundred feet away, another house unshielded by other structures, gone. In Tuscaloosa it looked like the world's largest dump truck drove through town with the bed up and the back gate open. I doubt they took time to do forensic testing to see if a pile of splinters on a foundation belonged to that house or one of ten others in the immediate vicinity. I suspect if Smithville, Ms was as congested as Tuscaloosa, that truck would have never made it very far before it would have slammed into something else before it got very far, let alone half a mile.

As I've seen it pointed out in different ways, rating a tornado is an inexact science. Dr Forbes said he saw lots of examples of EF-5 damage on the 29th. Maybe seeing it get rated a 4 made him reevaluate April 3, 1974. In one of his blogs, he now says many of the tornadoes during that outbreak would have been dropped a notch if using today's standards.

The fact is...yes...the standards are different Today...but they are better standards because we know so much more now about engineering and construction...etc...and that was generally a non-factor in the early days of ratings.

Now of course its still not perfect...far from it...we're having to give a wind speed to a tornado days after the fact and based only on the damage done and that's something that probably won't change anytime soon...if ever.

I'm very sure the experts checked that damage NE of the city. Jim Ladue specifically noted he himself alone surveyed 400 miles of tornado damage from 4/27. They just didn't find the damage to support EF-5 and that's the way it works sometimes. It doesn't have to be all four factors in place...but if TCL was EF-5...despite any issues about its "congestion"...you should have gotten at least ground scouring or debarked shrubbery...that would have been unaffected by nearby structures...etc. IMO...unless you have the concrete evidence...you don't make that upgrade...

Of course...that doesn't mean 100% that Tuscaloosa wasn't. Maybe it was...as you say it is an inexact science. We'll never know for sure...and in that sense every tornado rating can be called into question. But it was made with the best scientific analysis available to date and I fully believe that the April 27 outbreak was the most thorough tornado outbreak survey in history.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2012, 11:49:07 PM by Kevin »

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Re: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)
« Reply #2744 on: March 06, 2012, 01:29:48 PM »
Thanks Kevin. Since I was blind as a bat that day (communications-wise), the posts on this site and others are my only links to what happened. The building tension that can be felt from each poster as the storm got worse and worse, building to the climatic Tusc-Bham storm (although there were still many more to come) and the gut-wrenching reporting of the rising death toll was more mesmerizing than any movie I've seen in a long time.

Several days ago I was traveling down Al Hwy 243 a couple of miles NE of Phil Campbell for the first time in at least 3 years. I was shocked at how the heavily-wooded high hills and deep ravines were scarred so badly. I took several pictures and if I can figure out how to post them, some will show that tornadoes are definitely not bothered by landscape.

 

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