* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)  (Read 637163 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline justinmundie

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,663
  • Location: Avondale, Birmingham, Alabama
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 364
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #225 on: April 24, 2011, 04:27:17 PM »
No, we also have a flooding and severe threat...Memphis and west TN will get hit with this on Tuesday, us in middle TN and SCK, on Wednesday.

The flooding potential is higher across west TN, but those of us across middle TN need to watch for both flooding and severe weather as well.


I wouldn't write off Tuesday night in middle. The ingredients will be there late Tuesday pm through early wed pm for middle tenn
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline SKEW-TIM

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,029
  • Location: Formerly Nashville, Now Hendersonville, NC
  • Weather Enthusiast
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #226 on: April 24, 2011, 04:32:14 PM »
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...


So do you think there is a chance that with all the potential convection that this could really weaken our chances for Tornadoes? Could it be that all the moisture associated with this system hampers the instability? I certainly hope that Memphis does not suffer the same fate as Nashville did last May. I am really concerned that Memphis gets dumped on and flooded out and then as it makes its way across into middle tenn( Weds AM) the sun peaks out and causes this thing to reenergize into an elevated severe event for BNA. I guess I don't understand how convection works with severe- Does more convection dampen severe?      
“You may be whatever you resolve to be.”
― Stonewall Jackson

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #227 on: April 24, 2011, 04:45:04 PM »

I wouldn't write off Tuesday night in middle. The ingredients will be there late Tuesday pm through early wed pm for middle tenn

That overnight convection does have my attention...for numerous reasons. Including the threat for severe weather with that.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline beneficii

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,013
  • Location: Cordova
  • 竜巻警報
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 446
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #228 on: April 24, 2011, 04:52:58 PM »
I'm not sure I get the threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Basically, despite the fact there would have been virtually zero sunlight all day Tuesday and training thunderstorms, the atmosphere will still be so unstable as to support strong and long-tracked tornadoes, am I hearing that right?

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #229 on: April 24, 2011, 04:55:53 PM »
I'm not sure I get the threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Basically, despite the fact there would have been virtually zero sunlight all day Tuesday and training thunderstorms, the atmosphere will still be so unstable as to support strong and long-tracked tornadoes, am I hearing that right?

Oh, I am not saying strong and violent tornadoes...for any day just yet, but especially not Tuesday night for us. I am just saying severe weather could be possible.

Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline beneficii

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,013
  • Location: Cordova
  • 竜巻警報
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 446
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #230 on: April 24, 2011, 04:58:40 PM »
Oh, I am not saying strong and violent tornadoes...for any day just yet, but especially not Tuesday night for us. I am just saying severe weather could be possible.



I'm sorry I wasn't responding to you, rather I was responding to the AFD:

Quote
DESPITE WIDESPREAD
QPF AND A MOIST ADIABATIC TYPE SOUNDING IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...MODELS STILL INDICATE ALMOST 2000 J/KG SBCAPE. VERY LOW
LCLS AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG....BACKED FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PUSHES OVER ARKANSAS. STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE. SPC SWO DY 3
INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AND A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MDT
OR HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

Offline cliftown04

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 73
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #231 on: April 24, 2011, 09:17:16 PM »
I'm curious as to whether the threat still appears as great as it did a few days ago.  The forum has been rather quiet today.  The threat being tornado outbreak for west and middle tn.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,166
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2306
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #232 on: April 24, 2011, 09:23:37 PM »
I'm curious as to whether the threat still appears as great as it did a few days ago.  The forum has been rather quiet today.  The threat being tornado outbreak for west and middle tn.
o yeah, oznam rolling now at 42, looks like the winds at 700mb and 850 are directional in that time frame ::popcorn::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline InMemphis

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 191
  • Location: Germantown, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #233 on: April 24, 2011, 09:26:08 PM »
I'm curious as to whether the threat still appears as great as it did a few days ago.  The forum has been rather quiet today.  The threat being tornado outbreak for west and middle tn.
A lot of people have probably been spending time with family today.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2011, 09:31:07 PM by InMemphis »

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #234 on: April 24, 2011, 09:48:59 PM »
Apologies...but had computer issues most of the day.

Honestly...I'm getting less and less concerned about severe weather with this system. Will it happen? Yes. Could that include tornadoes? Perhaps...but more and more...especially for the MEG area...it seems the greatest risk once again is kind of moving around us...West tomorrow night...south/west Tuesday night (and Tuesday night is really looking much more questionable now...originally looked like the biggest day to me)...and well east/southeast on Wednesday.

Like May 1-2, 2010...severe weather will occur. But 95% will not care or be severely impacted by it in this area. The flooding...on the other hand...

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #235 on: April 24, 2011, 09:51:41 PM »
o yeah, oznam rolling now at 42, looks like the winds at 700mb and 850 are directional in that time frame ::popcorn::

0z NAM is looking like a best case severe weather wise to me for this area. Tomorrow's threat is a remnant line early Tuesday Morning...The Tuesday Night threat looks like nearly a non-event...and Wednesday Morning the low pushes out quickly with secondary development down in MS...MEG area probably escapes with few problems severe wise.

My concern with severe weather...especially a big time tornado event...has dropped dramatically for this area in the Last 24 hours...I'm likely going to begin focusing on flooding from this point forward.

Offline CT_Yankee

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,033
  • Location: Marshall Co (3 MI W Chapel Hill)
    • My Current Conditions
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 246
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #236 on: April 24, 2011, 09:52:31 PM »
From OHX AFD 3:49pm....conservatively bullish.   ::pondering::

Quote
THINGS WILL REALLY GET TO ROCKIN` AND ROLLIN` ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYTEM DEVELOPS OVER ARKANSAS AND LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY BY 00Z/THU. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVEN]]T FOR THE
MID STATE, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. A STRONG
FORECAST 850MB JET, OF 60 TO 65 KTS, COUPLED WITH 0-3KM STM
RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 500 M2/S2 COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
BEST POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON.



Aaron
@MarshSevereWx (#tspotter for Marshall Co)

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,166
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2306
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #237 on: April 24, 2011, 09:55:00 PM »
0z nam says a sleepless night for the midsouth ::wow::
Come on severe wx season...

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #238 on: April 24, 2011, 09:55:58 PM »
0z nam says a sleepless night for the midsouth ::wow::

Yes...big time flooding...severe weather...ehhh...

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,166
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2306
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #239 on: April 24, 2011, 10:00:50 PM »
Yes...big time flooding...severe weather...ehhh...
looks like a double barrel low to me kev.
Come on severe wx season...

 

* Recent Posts

Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by gcbama
[Today at 03:21:56 PM]
December 2020
by JayCee
[Today at 09:40:09 AM]
November 2020
by JayCee
[Yesterday at 10:40:21 AM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by JayCee
[November 21, 2020, 05:24:16 PM]
New Madrid Seismic Zone Activity
by bugalou
[November 21, 2020, 03:27:27 PM]

Advertisement