* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)  (Read 639300 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Adam

Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #210 on: April 24, 2011, 08:35:38 AM »
So if storms get surface based then the rotation has a better chance of getting to the ground?
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline Cyclonicjunkie

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,404
  • Location: The Smoky Mtns
    • Tootsweatherspot
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 141
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #211 on: April 24, 2011, 08:40:53 AM »
One of the more localized WRF's for the 26th  ::wow::




« Last Edit: April 24, 2011, 12:17:29 PM by cyclonicjunkie »

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,274
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #212 on: April 24, 2011, 10:53:37 AM »
HPC 5 day QPF- 12z



Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1039 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.UPDATE...

JUST GENERAL UPDATE TO FRESHEN THE GRIDS A BIT. SHOULD SEE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MORE SPORATIC ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE PROBABLE IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA WHICH RUNS TIL 00Z. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED AND
EXTENDED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. CONCERNS ARE MOUNTING THAT THIS EVENT COULD BE SIMILAR
TO THE MAY 1-2 STORM LAST YEAR WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT...
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. NEW HPC QPF THROUGH DAY 3 FEATURES 8+
INCHES FOR MOST OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE
. MORE
DETAILS LATER.

Looks like this is in reference to the western parts of the MEG CWA

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #213 on: April 24, 2011, 11:51:53 AM »
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #214 on: April 24, 2011, 12:04:02 PM »
BTW...want to add to that...there are still going to be strong tornadoes somewhere between Monday and Wednesday. Increased convection will only do so much in this situation...perhaps prevent the worst-case scenario type outbreaks. The main problem is pinning down where these convective areas will be severe/tornadic discrete cells...severe line segments...or just very heavy thunderstorms with rainfall that will be flood-producers.

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,181
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 531
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #215 on: April 24, 2011, 12:16:12 PM »
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...

I thought the May 1-2 outbreak was more moderate because the storms had trouble sustaining low level circulation? On the 1st I remember after we cleared out storms exploded over AR and there was about a dozen rotating supercells, but they had trouble putting down tornadoes.

I definitely understand where you're coming from with this potential outbreak, though.

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,181
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 531
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #216 on: April 24, 2011, 12:18:13 PM »
Potential watch for parts of the MEG CWA.

Offline Shanti

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 99
  • Location: south western Davidson county middle TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 68
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #217 on: April 24, 2011, 01:45:37 PM »
Latest models are really muddying things with lots of convection across the warm sector almost in a continuous basis from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Really hard to pick out specific times for the best severe weather potential. Of course...increased convection during the day may temper the severe threat some while further increasing the flooding risk. Exactly as we saw unfold on May 1-2, 2010.

Still unsure how this all play out. Tuesday afternoon/evening still look the worst threat for discrete cell storm mode...with things moving out quickly Wednesday and probably lining out as it heads east. Once again...don't know where MEG is coming from with this "major outbreak" talk for Wednesday. If it happens...its east of us...and probably Wednesday is going to be the QLCS day as suggested. Monday could be a discrete cell day as well back mostly west of the MEG area in AR evolving into a QLCS as it comes into this area Monday Night.

Again...models have been increasing daytime cloud cover/QPF in the broad warm sector at all times Monday-Wednesday. This increases the difficulty all-around in pinning down a severe threat...and does hurt confidence on just how intense this whole thing may get. Still tough to call IMO...

Really appreciate you're all around input here..especially with the Mon-Wed severe/flooding potential.

Wondering what your take is on this from MEG:
Quote
I DON/T THINK MODELS ARE QUITE
HANDLING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WELL
ENOUGH...SO CAPE MAY BE HIGHER AND LCL/S MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED ARE POSSIBLE AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED. SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY
UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.

Thanks in advance...
« Last Edit: April 24, 2011, 04:05:26 PM by toastido »

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,181
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 531
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #218 on: April 24, 2011, 03:17:51 PM »
I've never seen a Particularly Dangerous Situation Flash Flood Watch.

Snippets from MEG...
Quote
FLOOD WATCH...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

.A BOUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG IT INTO MISSOURI AND
PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEWLY STALLED
BOUNDARY AND SET OFF ADDITIONAL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>014-TNZ003-004-019>021-
048>055-088>092-250400-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.A.0007.110426T0000Z-110428T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-
UNION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILL E...
CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...MARTIN...
DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MIL AN...HUNTINGDON...
COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT.. .GERMANTOWN...
COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERV ILLE...BOLIVAR...
SAVANNAH
239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI
  AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST
  ARKANSAS...CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...CROSS...
  LEE...MISSISSIPPI...PHILLIPS...POINSETT AND ST. FRANCIS. IN
  NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...BENTON...COAHOMA...DE SOTO...
  LAFAYETTE...MARSHALL...PANOLA...PRENTISS...Q UITMAN...TATE...
  TIPPAH...TISHOMINGO...TUNICA AND UNION. IN WEST TENNESSEE...
  CARROLL...CHESTER...CROCKETT...DECATUR...DYE R...FAYETTE...
  GIBSON...HARDEMAN...HARDIN...HAYWOOD...HENDE RSON...HENRY...
  LAUDERDALE...MADISON...MCNAIRY...SHELBY...TI PTON AND WEAKLEY.

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

* TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
  NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40. LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUCH AS THESE MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD...
  SIGNIFICANT...AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THIS EVENT
  MAY BE AS SEVERE AS THE MAY 1-2 2010 FLOODING IN PLACES. FLASH
  FLOODING OF CITIES...RURAL AREAS...RIVERS...AND SMALL STREAMS
  ARE POSSIBLE.

Offline ultra mag

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 216
  • Location: friendship tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 120
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #219 on: April 24, 2011, 03:30:05 PM »
 was just about to ask about that pds flash flood watch.

Offline mattsrogers

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 94
  • Location: Nashville, Tn (Bellevue SW Davidson County)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #220 on: April 24, 2011, 03:59:48 PM »
I keep hearing Memphis being talked about flooding and even severe storms. Is the Dickson/Nashville Area out of the woods on both regards or if its not, when is Nashville area expected to see these rains and storms? Thanks! Happy Easter!
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #221 on: April 24, 2011, 04:02:07 PM »
I keep hearing Memphis being talked about flooding and even severe storms. Is the Dickson/Nashville Area out of the woods on both regards or if its not, when is Nashville area expected to see these rains and storms? Thanks! Happy Easter!

No, we also have a flooding and severe threat...Memphis and west TN will get hit with this on Tuesday, us in middle TN and SCK, on Wednesday.

The flooding potential is higher across west TN, but those of us across middle TN need to watch for both flooding and severe weather as well.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline ajatwister

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 409
  • Location: Franklin- Nolensville, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #222 on: April 24, 2011, 04:07:18 PM »
Yeah I've been wondering the same thing. I'm behind a good week on this forum and it seems like more Memphis people are getting hyped about this. will all this rain/flooding and storms hopefully miss the nasville area come Monday- Wed. Gish after last mats flooding I really trust u guys. Yall really did a great job predicting possible "flooding" during that event.
Born in D.C I survived 1993 and 1996 snowstorms, and have been fascinated ever since.

Snowfall:
2011-2012
Dusting...

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #223 on: April 24, 2011, 04:11:33 PM »
HPC forecast model has been consistent in showing NW Middle TN seeing the majority of rainfall and higher amounts (5"+).

I think it is safe to say most of middle TN will see, between, 2-4" of rainfall with localized higher amounts especially N/NW of Nashville. But anyone that sees a severe storm(s) over these next few days, will have higher amounts.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline mattsrogers

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 94
  • Location: Nashville, Tn (Bellevue SW Davidson County)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #224 on: April 24, 2011, 04:18:48 PM »
Thanks WKUWEATHER
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.

 

* Recent Posts

December 2020
by Michael
[Today at 03:22:21 PM]
November 2020
by Thundersnow
[December 02, 2020, 08:40:35 AM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by Curt
[December 01, 2020, 08:28:08 PM]

Advertisement