Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)

[Charles L.]

Appears Friday evening we could be looking at another round of severe weather...especially north of I-40.

[justinmundie]

I wish whoever is praying for these storms and rain would stop so I can get a garden in the ground. 

Clearly whoever is praying for rain, is loved by God more than you.

Or maybe God isn't a vending machine, and prayer doesn't work that way.

[spanarkle]

They say the front is gonna move back north sometime today. Do you guys think we will be able to play baseball this afternoon in West Tn. ?  Thanks

[Crockett]

Clearly whoever is praying for rain, is loved by God more than you.

Sorry, I'm not praying for sunshine.

Or maybe God isn't a vending machine, and prayer doesn't work that way.

Or maybe you're just too uptight to get a joke.

[Eric]

Looking at some of the data for next Tuesday, if I'm reading it right (which is ALWAYS up for debate), it could be potentially a red letter day for folks in and around the ArkLaTex.  We're still several model runs away from getting a clear picture, but the signs are there...... 

 

FOR DAY 5/MONDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED A SEVERE RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS. WHILE TIMING/SPATIAL
   DETAILS VARY TO A DEGREE...REASONABLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A
   SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AIRMASS TO
   THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...SEVERE STORMS SEEM
   LIKELY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION.

 

[toastido]

Clearly whoever is praying for rain, is loved by God more than you.

Sorry, I'm not praying for sunshine.

Or maybe God isn't a vending machine, and prayer doesn't work that way.

Or maybe you're just too uptight to get a joke.

BAZINGA!

[Charles L.]

 

Verified!

[Eric]

Verified!

LOL!  This weather stuff isn't so hard.   



 

[Memphis Weather]

I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.

[Thundersnow]

I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.

Wait... do what?  Is this Kevin speaking??

Just messing with you.

I'm sure a lot of folks should sit up and pay attention when Kevin is concerned.

A system to keep an eye on for sure, from the sound of it...

[Memphis Weather]

Wait... do what?  Is this Kevin speaking??

Just messing with you.

I'm sure a lot of folks should sit up and pay attention when Kevin is concerned.

A system to keep an eye on for sure, from the sound of it...

My account has not been hijacked...I can confirm 

As usual...all the caveats that we've been seeing this year still apply...and I'm not attaching any specifics at this point...but there's enough to be concerned for some high-end weather event revolving around severe weather or/both flooding.

[CT_Yankee]

I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.

 

[SKEW-TIM]

Tuesday Morning?

[Memphis Weather]

. What about timing issues? If the spc d5 box stays put wouldn't it push through here in the next morning?

There are certainly timing issues that could crop up...and obviously what we see now may not stay that way 5-6 days from now...but based on what I've seen Today both threats Monday and Tuesday Night happen in the 0z to 6z time frame for this region.

SPC's Day 5 region should be expanded further North/East than it is...IMO...and there should be one directly over the MEG area on Day 6. Hopefully we'll see that tomorrow should models stay consistent.

[Thundersnow]

. What about timing issues? If the spc d5 box stays put wouldn't it push through here in the next morning?

I suspect there's enough uncertainly in timing at this range where a frontal passage could occur anywhere between peak heating and the wee hours of the morning at this point.  It's probably a little bit early to nail down timing.  The SPC text says Monday/Monday night severe threat for the Arklatex region.  Depending on the movement of the system, that might mean during the day on Tuesday.

Or, we might find out that models are either too slow or too fast with this system as we get closer.