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Author Topic: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)  (Read 627859 times)

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Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #45 on: April 21, 2011, 05:21:31 PM »
With all the heavy rains falling along the Ohio River, and across the northern-mid portions of the MS river valley.  I would a little on down the line be very concerned with river flooding for both the OH River, MS River, and some of their tributaries. 

Indeed. The MS River will likely go above flood stage for the second time as far south as Memphis. It will already be within 1 foot of flood stage at Memphis as a result of rain that has already fallen.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #46 on: April 21, 2011, 05:25:55 PM »
Needless to say, people in this area (including yours truly) are going to tend to be edgy at the thought of a heavy rain event and flooding.

But, like SO '74 and SS '93, the May Flood of '10 is not likely to be contested in not only our lifetime but a number of lifetimes.

It does sound like we need to pay attention to potential flooding risks though.


Hard to believe it will be 1 year in a couple of weeks.....

Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #47 on: April 21, 2011, 05:40:49 PM »
I can't believe it is almost a year.  I will always remember going on here, and watching 4 and 5 the coverage.  I will always remember the severe weather and flooding occurring pretty much side by side.  With this round I am more concerned about the rain, and especially the rain that will fall north of the Ohio River moving into the major rivers.  I don't think Flash Flooding will as bad as some of our historical major events(May 2010,and that event in August on the Plateau hopefully not anywhere near those events), but more of River Flooding of the major rivers. 

Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #48 on: April 21, 2011, 07:22:44 PM »
Holy crap!  Why must every single storm that appears on numerical data be referred to as the next SO '74, or SS '93, or the May Floods, or ST '08?  Even if the setups are "similar", there's no freakin' guarantee the results will be.  Sheesh..... ::bangingheadintowall::

*rant off*
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #49 on: April 21, 2011, 07:30:23 PM »
Holy crap!  Why must every single storm that appears on numerical data be referred to as the next SO '74, or SS '93, or the May Floods, or ST '08?  Even if the setups are "similar", there's no freakin' guarantee the results will be.  Sheesh..... ::bangingheadintowall::

*rant off*
dont think anyone is saying it will be like that eric. there is just comparisons on placements of the players that MAY take the field early next week. in reality there is never two storms alike.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Cyclonicjunkie

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #50 on: April 21, 2011, 08:18:10 PM »
I'm quite concerned for the MEG area for either/both Monday and Tuesday Night...something big in one form or another could be in the offing. We shall see...a long way out still.




 :D


Offline Milodog2

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #51 on: April 21, 2011, 08:44:14 PM »
Holy crap!  Why must every single storm that appears on numerical data be referred to as the next SO '74, or SS '93, or the May Floods, or ST '08?  Even if the setups are "similar", there's no freakin' guarantee the results will be.  Sheesh..... ::bangingheadintowall::

*rant off*

Hope you under stand I was just quoting, not predicting

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #52 on: April 21, 2011, 08:58:14 PM »
I can't believe it is almost a year.  I will always remember going on here, and watching 4 and 5 the coverage.  I will always remember the severe weather and flooding occurring pretty much side by side.  With this round I am more concerned about the rain, and especially the rain that will fall north of the Ohio River moving into the major rivers.  I don't think Flash Flooding will as bad as some of our historical major events(May 2010,and that event in August on the Plateau hopefully not anywhere near those events), but more of River Flooding of the major rivers. 
seriously , i would be more concerned about the severe setup here. course were days out. but it screams tornadoes...models are hinting most of the heavy rain may be off to the west. still could be some flooding issues, especially along rivers.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #53 on: April 21, 2011, 09:03:32 PM »
Hope you under stand I was just quoting, not predicting

Not intended for you Milodog...;)
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Offline Crockett

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #54 on: April 21, 2011, 09:10:47 PM »
Hope you under stand I was just quoting, not predicting

I don't want to speak for Eric, but I'm guessing he was referring to the post by TS09, who said that a super outbreak could be possible next week and that the setup is the same as 4/3/74.

I haven't read Henry Margusity's blog the past couple of days, but earlier this week he was saying there could be 200 tornadoes over the next two weeks. Has he decided to get more specific with his predictions and say they'll all happen in one fell swoop next week? Either way, I'm skeptical. Not that it can't happen; just that Margusity loves to hype. I think most people are skeptical of his predictions, just as they're skeptical of Joe Bastardi's winter storm predictions.

Everyone is obviously free to their own interpretation of pending storm systems. The problem is that when you constantly go around throwing out buzz words like "tornado outbreak" and "super outbreak," people start to regard you as another Chicken Boy-Who-Cried-Wolf Little.

That can apply to Margusity and weather forum weenies alike.

Offline Cyclonicjunkie

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #55 on: April 21, 2011, 09:14:07 PM »
Has he decided to get more specific with his predictions and say they'll all happen in one fell swoop next week?



Not really, he just made a map of a possible MAJOR OUTBREAK  :D



Offline Adam

Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #56 on: April 21, 2011, 09:16:13 PM »
Wow he Is screaming Major Outbreak for Louisiana to Pennsilvannia. I'd say he is going to bust bad. He reminds me of Bistardi with Winter Weather. ::shrug::
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #57 on: April 21, 2011, 09:17:44 PM »
dont get me wrong, i know ole henry can hype with the best mets out there. but looking at most models... they do scream some very concern. were still few days out, so i will be ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #58 on: April 21, 2011, 09:18:00 PM »
Wow he Is screaming Major Outbreak for Louisiana to Pennsilvannia. I'd say he is going to bust bad. He reminds me of Bistardi with Winter Weather. ::shrug::

They are all about ratings. Whatever will get people over to their site...they will use.

Do they know this is a good map? No, but if it gets peoples attention and causes them to come back to AccuWeather the next day to see further updates...it is a win for them.
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Offline Adam

Re: Severe Chances into Next Week
« Reply #59 on: April 21, 2011, 09:18:51 PM »
They are all about ratings. Whatever will get people over to their site...they will use.

Do they know this is a good map? No, but if it gets peoples attention and causes them to come back to AccuWeather the next day to see any updates...it is a win for them.
Unfortunately yes this is all correct. TWC is about the same way.
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

 

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