* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)  (Read 639285 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #255 on: April 25, 2011, 01:19:21 AM »
***ATTENTION***
SWM WATCH

Due to the severe weather and flooding event that may unfold across the region between later Today (Monday) and Wednesday...the TNWX Staff has issued a SWM Watch. The watch means that our Significant Weather Mode (SWM) may go into effect sometime between now and Wednesday. At this time...we expect SWM will likely be necessary at some point over the next three days...perhaps as early as later Today...so stay tuned for future announcements from the TNWX staff.

To those that are new to us...I urge you to read the rules and regulations that constitute SWM in preparation for the possibility of issuance.  Those can be found here...

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2376.0.html

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #256 on: April 25, 2011, 01:33:24 AM »
For Reference...

Day 1 Outlook (06z Issuance)...



Quote
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO SRN
   MO...WRN TN AND NWRN MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK AND TX
   NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEYS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OH ACROSS MUCH OF PA
   AND NRN SECTIONS OF WV/MD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AS A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS
   THE REGION. ON MON MORNING...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
   ACROSS SRN OK...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM
   CNTRL TX NEWD INTO MO BY 00Z. STRONG SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   WILL BRING MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
   ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...THEN SPREADING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER
   DURING THE EVENING. DESPITE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO EVOLUTION
   OF MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A LARGE AREA
   OF STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...ERN OK...NERN TX EWD INTO SRN MO...AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...
   SUBSTANTIAL MORNING CONVECTION...AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN DEFINING WHERE THE BEST TORNADO
   THREAT WILL BE EXIST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE ONGOING OVER ERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO...WHERE THEY ARE
   CURRENTLY ONGOING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE A COLD
   POOL OVER SRN MO/NRN AR. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AMPLE
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SOME ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY AND WILL MIX
   EWD TO JUST E OF I-35 BY 00Z WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. AS MID
   TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS STREAM NWD ACROSS TX...THE AIR MASS WILL
   DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND SOME STORMS MAY FORM RELATIVELY EARLY OVER
   ERN TX...NRN LA AND MUCH OF AR. ALTHOUGH NOT OPTIMALLY TIMED IN A
   DIURNAL SENSE...SHEAR PROFILES WOULD STILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL AND WIND.
   
   THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BETWEEN 21-00Z
   OVER NERN TX...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND FAR SRN MO AS
   THE UPPER JET DEVELOPS AND LIFT NEWD. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A 50
   KT LOW LEVEL JET...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
   TORNADOES...A FEW STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE EXACT NRN EXTENT
   OF THE STRONG TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT/OLD
   CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE.
   
   OTHER SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO/HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN
   AR...NRN LA...NWRN MS OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
   DEVELOPING UPPER JET.

Day 2 Outlook (07z Issuance)...



Quote
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
   TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN
   TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
   EASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST/E COAST STATES TO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
   CONUS...AS ONE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  A SURFACE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
   SWWD INTO N TX...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   CONVECTION -- INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
   OUTBREAK FOCUSED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
   REGION.
   
   ...ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
   COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS -- SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT IS UNFOLDING FOR THIS AREA FOR DAY 2 /TUE. AND EARLY WED./.
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHIFTING
   EWD/ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   GREATER SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS REGION HOWEVER WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
   THE DAY...AS AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING NEWD IS FOLLOWED
   BY A SECOND/DIGGING FEATURE SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
   AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   AS THIS OCCURS...BACKING/INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS
   FORECAST...WITH A 70-PLUS KT LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT EWD FROM NE TX
   ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE EVENING...BENEATH MID-LEVEL WLYS INCREASING
   TO 70 TO 80 KT.
   
   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
   ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N TX AND AR TOWARD THE
   MID MS VALLEY LATE.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS NE TX AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXPECTED.  A SUBSTANTIAL
   TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- SPREADING ACROSS NRN
   LA/AR AND THEN INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS LATE.  ALONG WITH TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
   STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR E
   AS MIDDLE TN/NRN AR/NWRN GA BY 27/12Z.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
   THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
   SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
   ACROSS THIS AREA FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX.  WHILE AFTERNOON
   HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
   COVER...LOCAL AREAS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT
   AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- AS FAR NE AS
   PA AND NY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
   
   WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA
   /LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM 50 TO 65 KT IN THE 850 TO 500 MB
   LAYER/...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH
   LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS.  ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.  THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT
   SLOWLY ADVANCES...WITH SOME THREAT LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NY/PA/WV.

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #257 on: April 25, 2011, 01:42:23 AM »
The biggest question to the Day 1 MDT is the current convection in AR...as mentioned earlier and also within the SPC discussion above. If it maintains through the morning...the cold pool could be reinforced keeping stable air over the Northern half of the MDT (North AR/Southeast MO/West TN). This would kill the threat...at least for tornadoes (which is what the MDT is based on...wind/hail probs are SLGT risk criteria). Still TBD...

The Day 2 situation has many questions also as discussed to end up verifying the MDT...but we'll try to deal with things one day at a time at this point.

That's it for me Tonight...A long few days are ahead...let's hope it only causes sleep deprivation and nothing else...

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,181
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 531
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #258 on: April 25, 2011, 02:07:25 AM »
Conditional situations can be so frustrating.

You can tell MEG didn't really anticipate this MCS really. Only 20% pops in Midtown and it's pretty obvious now that this is going to put down .5-1" here overnight. 30% pops in Cross County where the first round of heavy rain is about to move in.

Offline John1122

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,246
  • Location: Campbell Co, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #259 on: April 25, 2011, 03:30:17 AM »
MRX Hazardous Weather Outlook is extremely bullish with the severe threat, especially for Wednesday with the rarely used "strong and long tracked" wording for the tornado threat..

Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-261000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES.

Offline vanster67

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 438
  • Location: Monterey, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #260 on: April 25, 2011, 03:33:24 AM »
Seeing how I now work 3rd here at the inn, I am up all night long.  Yes, it looks to be moving on in to West TN.  I wonder if it will stay to the west of the plateau.  I see the SPC has a Moderate risk in place for Mon, Tues, and Wed.  Alot of Tornado talk for Mid TN/TN Valley on wednesday.  Scary stuff.  I am definitely paying attention from now until this possible event is over.  I feel really bad about all the flooding going on, and the potential for even more flooding in West TN is heart breaking to think about.  I reckon there is potential for alot to happen in the next 3 or so days.  Everyone stay safe, Kevin, Eric an all thanks for the great info, and all the hard work.  Please keep us updated.  Thanks :)

Offline Milodog2

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 233
  • Location: North Knox County
  • Go Vols
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #261 on: April 25, 2011, 04:57:02 AM »
Can't recall MRX ever saying possable long track tornado's except on 11-10-2001 and that was mostly for the plateau. ::faint::

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,182
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2317
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #262 on: April 25, 2011, 05:45:58 AM »
WOW. cant say i rememeber so many moderate risk in a row. wouldnt suprise me by tomorrow morning to see a upgrade to a high risk ro day 2, portions of it .
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,786
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 177
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #263 on: April 25, 2011, 06:32:08 AM »
Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
606 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION
. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY OR
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
DEADLY LIGHTNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE REGION.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

http://HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH IT APPEARS THERE MAY
BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING
5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LAST FRIDAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 INCH
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.


MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
RIVER CRESTS MAY CHALLENGE HISTORICAL VALUES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

http://HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED EACH DAY FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS OR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THEY ENCOUNTER DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


$$

I present to you the PDS Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #264 on: April 25, 2011, 07:36:42 AM »
Some of these severe weather parameters are maxed out across middle TN Wednesday afternoon...setting up for a wild Wednesday if it holds.

The Tuesday morning convection does catch my eye for the threat tomorrow...but Wednesday is our day anyway, better get some good nights sleep gang, going to be a rough next few days.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,855
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 550
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #265 on: April 25, 2011, 07:39:00 AM »
Just sickening at the prospect that some places many be experiencing what the Nashville area felt last year.  I can truly empathize.  Hopefully, as few homes are in the path of these floods as possible...

My thoughts and prayers are with those areas.

One difference though... that statement out of Paducah describes 10-15" rainfall amounts over a 5-day period.  Nashville saw that in 36 hours last year...

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,561
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 145
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #266 on: April 25, 2011, 07:46:16 AM »
While I believe the news-maker of this event will be the catastrophic flooding, I am very concerned to be inside a day 3 moderate risk. I can't recall when that last happened here.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,855
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 550
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #267 on: April 25, 2011, 07:50:53 AM »
A healthy looking line of storms is moving through Middle TN.  Looks to affect the Nashville metro area before rush hour is done.  :P

Sub-severe though... there are currently no warnings.

Offline Twisted

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 112
  • Location: Atoka
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #268 on: April 25, 2011, 08:32:22 AM »
While Nashville got most of the worst flooding last year. West Tn. was not spared then on the flooding. Many people lost everything here in Tipton county. A friend of ours had 5-6 feet of water INSIDE his business. The navy base was flooded as well as our neighborhood.  Yes, Nashville was more widespread and worse then here. But we took a hard hit ourselves. When the base flooded they said the levees overflowed cuz it was a once in a thousand year storm. I am worried about this happening twice in 2 years.  ::doh:: How bad do you guys think it will be in Tipton County and Millington? Both in terms of flooding and tornadoes. As I said before I have major PTSD  in regards to tornadoes. I respect your opinions more then our local weather guys. You guys are great! Thanks for keeping us in the loop.   ;D

April
« Last Edit: April 25, 2011, 09:02:58 AM by Twisted »
April

Memphis Weather

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #269 on: April 25, 2011, 08:43:21 AM »
Great news for Today. Convection continues across the area with yet another MCS moving across Southern AR. SPC Has already pushed the MDT W/SW...leaving only sections of SW TN in it...and removed the hatching from this portion of it. I expect the MDT will eventually be pushed out of all of the state of TN later Today and additional sections of AR. Cold pool as hinted is being reinforced by continued convection...so the surface based severe threat is going to be significantly reduced across Central/North AR and West TN.

A few severe storms with hail/wind are possible into Tonight...and of course the flooding risk increases. But...I think any major tornado threat has been averted for this area for Day 1. Two more to go... :)

 

* Recent Posts

December 2020
by Michael
[Today at 03:22:21 PM]
November 2020
by Thundersnow
[December 02, 2020, 08:40:35 AM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by Curt
[December 01, 2020, 08:28:08 PM]

Advertisement