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Author Topic: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)  (Read 637180 times)

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Offline StormStalker

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #240 on: April 24, 2011, 10:03:04 PM »
Apologies...but had computer issues most of the day.

Honestly...I'm getting less and less concerned about severe weather with this system. Will it happen? Yes. Could that include tornadoes? Perhaps...but more and more...especially for the MEG area...it seems the greatest risk once again is kind of moving around us...West tomorrow night...south/west Tuesday night (and Tuesday night is really looking much more questionable now...originally looked like the biggest day to me)...and well east/southeast on Wednesday.

Like May 1-2, 2010...severe weather will occur. But 95% will not care or be severely impacted by it in this area. The flooding...on the other hand...
Are you speaking for just the Memphis area in particular or Middle Tennessee as well?

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #241 on: April 24, 2011, 10:03:13 PM »
looks like a double barrel low to me kev.
Secondary low development down in AR will choke off the warm sector across the MEG area as it moves into Northern MS during Wednesday Morning. Tuesday Night now looks like a near non-event honestly....and tomorow looks to be an early morning QLCS. I can't find any support for a major discrete cell threat for the MEG area anymore with these systems...again...severe remains likely...but this is not the major deal I was concerned about a few days ago.

This could be a lot like April 14-15...though I would expect not as intense. Little Rock area could have problems Monday/Tuesday...then MS/AL on Wednesday. We do relatively fine except for the hundreds of homes that will likely be under water.

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #242 on: April 24, 2011, 10:04:18 PM »
Are you speaking for just the Memphis area in particular or Middle Tennessee as well?
Southern Middle TN could still have issues as the secondary low moves up into that area Wednesday Afternoon. Still worth watching...

Memphis Weather

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #243 on: April 24, 2011, 10:12:16 PM »
you repell extreme weather, move to oklahoma where they need you more. Please

We'll see how much I "repell" extreme weather when people are dealing with flooding worse than last year next week...

Offline bugalou

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #244 on: April 24, 2011, 10:18:29 PM »
you repell extreme weather, move to oklahoma where they need you more. Please

Don't under estimate the flood threat.  Sure, it is not as sexy as tornadoes, but much more deadly.

Offline beneficii

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #245 on: April 24, 2011, 10:19:00 PM »
True, but thats not from all rain occuring here... Where extreme weather is not possible because of your presence. Lol.

I cannot make heads or tails of this statement.

Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #246 on: April 24, 2011, 10:19:53 PM »
Well, speaking of the potential flooding... what are your thoughts? Totals in the Metro area won't really have much of an effect on river flooding locally (as that will come from upstream), but I'm wondering if the Metro will see high totals area wide. Last May there was a pretty sharp cutoff... even though everywhere got 3"+.

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #247 on: April 24, 2011, 10:24:56 PM »
Well, speaking of the potential flooding... what are your thoughts? Totals in the Metro area won't really have much of an effect on river flooding locally (as that will come from upstream), but I'm wondering if the Metro will see high totals area wide. Last May there was a pretty sharp cutoff... even though everywhere got 3"+.

Probably widespread 4-6" with locally 8-12". Most will be along to just north of I-40 corridor...perhaps very similar to May 2010.

...Folks...ignore NorthMSTwister...he has tried to troll the forum in the past based on statements I have made (and he ONLY does it with me)...and he's doing it yet again now...

Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #248 on: April 24, 2011, 10:27:20 PM »
The MCS back in western AR will probably be the first round of storms to not just affect the Missouri border counties...

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #249 on: April 24, 2011, 11:11:48 PM »
the 0z gfs has the lp almost on top of us on the second system. definetly more heavy rain there. with the most severe threat to the south. heck our best chances of severe weather may be with the first sytem late tomorrow night. this is getting complicated. ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Memphis Weather

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #250 on: April 24, 2011, 11:15:43 PM »
no doubt, the flooding threat is insane with this, and Kevin, you should take me having alittle fun as a testament of your accuracy. You are generally always right, and the board including myself respect your judgement evertime you give it.

I appreciate the kind words...but I guess I've never taken your posts that way. I'm not trying to be harsh...but I can look back at your post history and a rather large percentage of your posts either quote me or refer to something I've said...and have followed generally with a one-liner of some sort that's not asking a question or making a general comment or observation...etc...and you don't seem to repeat this with anybody else. If I'm taking this wrongly...I'm sorry...

I won't lie...I'm not in a great mood tonight...and I wasn't before all the computer problems I had Today that kept me offline pretty much all afternoon. So...maybe my posts previously should be ignored. Let me try this again in a summary format of my thoughts this evening...and I'll try not to intentionally downplay...

1) There is still a severe threat for the Memphis/Mid-South area for Monday-Wednesday...though it likely won't spread much East of the TN River on either Monday or Tuesday. All of Tennessee will be in the Risk by Wednesday.

2) Severe Weather remains quite likely at periods during this time. Tornado watches may be nearly continuous starting Tomorrow Night for West TN At least.

3) Monday's threat will likely be worst over AR. Discrete cells including tornadoes /some strong/ are likely. This should evolve into a QLCS as it approaches the MS River and West TN late Monday Night and Tuesday Morning. Damaging winds are most likely then...but a few spin-up tornadoes are possible...not unlike we've seen numerous times already this year.

4) Tuesday's threat is increasingly more conditional...though carries higher end potential should things come together. What was potentially looking like the outbreak of the year may now be the tamest day of the three. Still...some severe weather should occur...with the worst though again back in AR. Tornadoes remain possible. The question will be if this threat ever reaches into Memphis/West TN. Warm front position is in question.

5) Wednesday Morning may be Memphis's biggest tornado threat as primary low moves just north...right before secondary low development begins SW and begins to redefine the warm sector. This should provide a window for a discrete cell threat...but it may be a narrow window...and will be at the time where historically the least tornadoes have occurred in the Mid-South (12-15z). Should this secondary low develop...it will then choke off the warm sector over West TN during Wednesday afternoon as discrete cells and/or line segments begin firing over MS/AL. This will expand into at least Southern Middle/Southeast sections of TN throughout the day. The Threat for West TN/North Middle TN is conditional on secondary surface low's impacts which is still fully TBD. More strong tornadoes are likely at least across AL/MS Wednesday. Whether they extend into TN again...we'll just have to see. The threat is there though.

6) The Flash/Areal/River Flooding Risk for the MEG Area (including West TN) is extreme. Middle and Eastern TN's risk is much much less though non-zero. Widespread and significant flash flooding will occur. Creeks/streams and small rivers will quickly go bank-full and above as heavy rain occurs. Levees may breach. This is totally separate to the MS River problems which will not occur until late this week and mostly the following week. When that occurs though...backwater flooding on some rivers that will first flood this week will renew and could be even worse and additional levee breaks are likely. As far as flash flooding...whether this is truly worse than last year is still unclear...it just depends on where heavy convective bands set up and how long they "train". For river flooding...this will be the worst event in any of our lifetimes here in this part of the state and region unless something totally unexpected happens. Perhaps not every river will exceed 1997 or 2010 levels...but several will...including most importantly the Mississippi River. Maybe not as far South as Memphis...but not far upstream...this will be our "1993" or any other big flood year of our generation that you want to use. Many will still manage to challenge 1927 or 1937. I can truly only hope something is being over exaggerated in the data to where this doesn't pan out. When flooding evacuation orders begin going out...whenever/wherever they happen (and they will)...please heed these notices or you will be risking your life. If you are in a flood prone area...make preparations and plans now for possible evacuation and long-term relocation. Hope for the best...but prepare for the worst.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #251 on: April 24, 2011, 11:21:43 PM »
this is a most complicated event i have seen in a while kevin. little this n that then things could get very hairy. we all need to be prepared. guess its off to the euro now... its been showing the lp going north of us or or just going by to our nw. ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #252 on: April 24, 2011, 11:41:14 PM »
It looks like outflow is racing towards the Metro.

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #253 on: April 25, 2011, 12:08:50 AM »
We'll have to see what becomes of this convection over AR. It hasn't been modeled that well. Could complicate Tomorrow's threat...too soon to say at this point.

Offline beneficii

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Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #254 on: April 25, 2011, 01:15:36 AM »
On the new SWODY1 and SWODY2, Extreme W TN under MDT.

 

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