* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)  (Read 637171 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Milodog2

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 233
  • Location: North Knox County
  • Go Vols
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #195 on: April 23, 2011, 07:37:30 PM »
Have not checked the board that much today. ? is will Knoxville be in a threat for sever weather and are we talking slight chance or worse on Wednesday thanks.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #196 on: April 23, 2011, 08:03:12 PM »
Have not checked the board that much today. ? is will Knoxville be in a threat for sever weather and are we talking slight chance or worse on Wednesday thanks.

Yes, Knoxville is in the threat for Wednesday...as far as I can tell, looks like this could very well be higher than a Slight risk day. Especially if the current parameters hold.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,181
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 531
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #197 on: April 23, 2011, 08:03:49 PM »
It will be interesting to see how the Mississippi reacts to this much water being dumped in all at once. I'm sure it's already at or near flood with all the rain so far this spring.

The Mississippi has already flooded once this spring. The crests were fairly significant.

I have lived in a county bordering the Mississippi River my whole life thus far, actually. I never realized that until just now...

The levee system is so extensive in the lower MS River Valley that it will take an extreme event to break it. Post 1927 and 1937 I am unaware of any major breaks in it (New Orleans aside) below Cape Girardeau. When the levees failed in 1927 the MS River was up to 60 miles wide in places around Greenville, MS.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2011, 08:06:49 PM by harlequin »

Offline Milodog2

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 233
  • Location: North Knox County
  • Go Vols
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #198 on: April 23, 2011, 08:05:13 PM »
Thanks WKU

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,181
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 531
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #199 on: April 23, 2011, 08:17:15 PM »
MEg's AFD continues to express concern, like beneficil mentioned.

I thought this was pretty impressive:

Quote
THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED ARE POSSIBLE AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED. SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY
UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.


And unrelated, there's a pretty strong couplet in Newton County, AR. I'm always wary of tornadoes in N AR because they almost always seem to result in a fatality.

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,434
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #200 on: April 23, 2011, 08:57:56 PM »
MEg's AFD continues to express concern, like beneficil mentioned.

I thought this was pretty impressive:


Yipes... This is where I become concerned and my fear for life and property trumps my passion for weather.  I do not want anything this significant in all honesty.

Offline Fred Gossage

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 224
  • Location: Pell City, Alabama
    • FOX6 Weather Blog - MyFoxTracker.com
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #201 on: April 23, 2011, 09:00:58 PM »
Yipes... This is where I become concerned and my fear for life and property trumps my passion for weather.  I do not want anything this significant in all honesty.

If you believe the GFS, the setup for Tuesday is ominously similar to a big big tornado day in AR/TN from the 1950s.... even down to sfc feature placement/intensity... but until we get close enough to start looking at mesoscale issues... there is no need in throwing around analog dates, even if they are valid on the synoptic level. People look at a date... and refuse to take an analog for what it's really worth. Just know that this potentially analogs to a biggie from the past... for that area.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2011, 09:04:31 PM by Fred Gossage »
Fred Gossage
Pell City, Alabama

Facebook
Twitter

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,434
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #202 on: April 23, 2011, 09:13:36 PM »
If you believe the GFS, the setup for Tuesday is ominously similar to a big big tornado day in AR/TN from the 1950s.... even down to sfc feature placement/intensity... but until we get close enough to start looking at mesoscale issues... there is no need in throwing around analog dates, even if they are valid on the synoptic level. People look at a date... and refuse to take an analog for what it's really worth. Just know that this potentially analogs to a biggie from the past... for that area.

Mesoscale events are always the final factor with these systems.  I love weather in all it's extreme modes but today's GFS was a bit sobering for me.  I am finding myself hoping it backs off for once in my life!  As you said though it will come down to meso and all we can do is wait and see.

Offline beneficii

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,013
  • Location: Cordova
  • 竜巻警報
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 446
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #203 on: April 23, 2011, 10:36:30 PM »
MEg's AFD continues to express concern, like beneficil mentioned.

I thought this was pretty impressive:

And unrelated, there's a pretty strong couplet in Newton County, AR. I'm always wary of tornadoes in N AR because they almost always seem to result in a fatality.


I'm wondering where you can get the SigTor for ops models for free, because I don't see it on NCO or on TwisterData.

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,181
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 531
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #204 on: April 24, 2011, 02:03:59 AM »

Offline SKEW-TIM

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,029
  • Location: Formerly Nashville, Now Hendersonville, NC
  • Weather Enthusiast
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #205 on: April 24, 2011, 07:33:21 AM »
Okay now I am starting to worry a bit now that we are 2 days out. I do not see much change in the models. CAPE and Lift Indices are  ::wow:: and Dew Points too.

I don't see this as a CRY WOLFE event. Now I am only wondering if we get a MDT and/or a PDS

Things are really beginning to look really unstable and according to Twisterdata's GFS 66z run, the CAP is GONE!

Guess I better wash my brown pants, Looks like this is the real deal   
“You may be whatever you resolve to be.”
― Stonewall Jackson

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,166
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2306
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #206 on: April 24, 2011, 07:46:37 AM »
i think we have great potential to get put under our first high risk day for here in the midsouth. ::wow::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #207 on: April 24, 2011, 07:54:38 AM »
This will, easily, be a MDT risk day...now High is still up in the air.

For long track tornadoes, I would like to see the winds be more backed...which would be aided by a more negatively tilted system. No doubt will this be a strong storm system with powerful dynamics to work with...that combo never bodes well for us, or anyone for that matter.

So I am not ready to call this a huge tornado day, but things are setting up for a severe day with large hail (up to golfball size is my early guess), widespread damaging winds, and tornadoes (how many and how strong is still uncertain).
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline stephens

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 77
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #208 on: April 24, 2011, 07:56:08 AM »
I have not seen a major severe outbreak with tornadoes posted this far in advance. The experts must be really worried about this one. Tennessee has faired well the past few weeks compared to our nieghbors. We may be about to pay for it in spades. I have seen maps that have us in the bullesye late Tuesday and Wednesday. What do all of you think?

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,166
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2306
Re: Severe Weather 4/25-27
« Reply #209 on: April 24, 2011, 08:08:04 AM »
I have not seen a major severe outbreak with tornadoes posted this far in advance. The experts must be really worried about this one. Tennessee has faired well the past few weeks compared to our nieghbors. We may be about to pay for it in spades. I have seen maps that have us in the bullesye late Tuesday and Wednesday. What do all of you think?
i do think late tuesday into overnight... look very hairy. the winds turning directional have my attention. storms should get surface based.
Come on severe wx season...

 

* Recent Posts

Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by gcbama
[Today at 03:21:56 PM]
December 2020
by JayCee
[Today at 09:40:09 AM]
November 2020
by JayCee
[Yesterday at 10:40:21 AM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by JayCee
[November 21, 2020, 05:24:16 PM]
New Madrid Seismic Zone Activity
by bugalou
[November 21, 2020, 03:27:27 PM]

Advertisement