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Author Topic: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak  (Read 21823 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #330 on: March 09, 2020, 10:04:21 AM »
This is what I tried to say the other day that there was some major failure in the forecasting of that event, but of course people took it that I was "bashing" mets, I just thought I was stating a fact…..that being said this article did put it much more eloquently than I can :).

Hopefully after studies are done on this event it could help warnings in the future. A lot of it I think has to do with wording....for one thing, I DESPISE the word "slight" in spc forecasts, I bet you 90% of people see/hear that and don't understand it
SPC should just get rid of the slight risk imo... start out marginal being your average general thunder storm with strong thunderstorm for good measure ... replace slight with enhanced .. that’s your severe weather thunderstorm hail wind general . Then course moderate be next level . Then big dog day will be high risk ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline NashRugger

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #331 on: March 09, 2020, 12:59:23 PM »
Yeah, not gonna happen.


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Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #332 on: March 09, 2020, 01:48:37 PM »
Yeah, not gonna happen.


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I agree, and I KNOW they know more than I do, but they are quite a conservative bunch.....In most jobs if you make mistakes you get called out on it, so I just feel it is fair to point things out from time to time, there was at least one met at ohx who stated they just simply did not see this coming and it was totally unexpected...

I get it mother nature throws things that can shock everybody, but it is ok to admit that they had a bad night , the first warning for Davidson county was about 4 minutes after wsmv spotted the tight rotation, some areas where there were touchdowns had no warning at all....always room to get better in every job

Offline bugalou

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #333 on: March 09, 2020, 05:31:40 PM »
This is what I tried to say the other day that there was some major failure in the forecasting of that event, but of course people took it that I was "bashing" mets, I just thought I was stating a fact…..that being said this article did put it much more eloquently than I can :).

Hopefully after studies are done on this event it could help warnings in the future. A lot of it I think has to do with wording....for one thing, I DESPISE the word "slight" in spc forecasts, I bet you 90% of people see/hear that and don't understand it

I don't think the forecast was off at all.  People just have grown to not respect "slight" risk and the term in and off itself downplays the risk.  I am guilty of this myself - I didn't even check radarscope before bed.  The misses Harlequin mentioned were more in the issuance of near real time warnings which did happen, but I have seen the radar data and can completely understand how they did happen. The storm was a mess of mergers and between the radar distance and terrain sometime the data just wasn't there.

IMO the current rating system for severe weather is a total mess and I don't know how they thought adding a new category would be a good thing.  In my opinion they need to go with something simple.  Severe weather should be defined as convective storms that present threats to life and property.  Categories should be simple and clear:  on the low end: Possible, mid: Enhanced, and high: Very Likely.

This may be a little more controversial but I think the use of the Tornado Watch needs to be reworked.  I think all convective threats should be covered under Severe Thunder Storm Watches with specific wording in the the watch mentioning the severe weather modes.  Tornado Watches should then been issued closer to the event and be polygon based ahead of storm cells that have a history of tornado warnings and/or rotation.  Tornado watches should look like larger Tornado warning polygons but still smaller than the parent watch box.  This puts much more weight behind a watch and in this storms case places like Nashville and Cookesville would of had a heads up well ahead of time to at least be paying attention.  As it stands now I do not think the Tornado watch has much value at all to the public and this would take some reeducation but I also think it would help alert the public more, especially at night.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 05:37:26 PM by bugalou »

Offline NashRugger

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #334 on: March 09, 2020, 06:18:56 PM »
There’s only so much retooling and trying new categories, words, colorful pictures, etc that NOAA can produce and use but in the end, it is only the public itself to do what they wish with the information.

Over-warning leading to complacency, see Joplin, MO. Under-warning because of fear of crying wolf, see Plainfield, IL. I could use multiple other examples but these two are sort of anchors of the spectrum that a local NWS faces.

At this stage, the general public has to take responsibility for their actions.


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Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #335 on: March 10, 2020, 08:42:45 AM »
I don't think the forecast was off at all.  People just have grown to not respect "slight" risk and the term in and off itself downplays the risk.  I am guilty of this myself - I didn't even check radarscope before bed.  The misses Harlequin mentioned were more in the issuance of near real time warnings which did happen, but I have seen the radar data and can completely understand how they did happen. The storm was a mess of mergers and between the radar distance and terrain sometime the data just wasn't there.

IMO the current rating system for severe weather is a total mess and I don't know how they thought adding a new category would be a good thing.  In my opinion they need to go with something simple.  Severe weather should be defined as convective storms that present threats to life and property.  Categories should be simple and clear:  on the low end: Possible, mid: Enhanced, and high: Very Likely.

This may be a little more controversial but I think the use of the Tornado Watch needs to be reworked.  I think all convective threats should be covered under Severe Thunder Storm Watches with specific wording in the the watch mentioning the severe weather modes.  Tornado Watches should then been issued closer to the event and be polygon based ahead of storm cells that have a history of tornado warnings and/or rotation.  Tornado watches should look like larger Tornado warning polygons but still smaller than the parent watch box.  This puts much more weight behind a watch and in this storms case places like Nashville and Cookesville would of had a heads up well ahead of time to at least be paying attention.  As it stands now I do not think the Tornado watch has much value at all to the public and this would take some reeducation but I also think it would help alert the public more, especially at night.

you know that is not a bad idea at all.....the tornado watch has been over used for years especially when there is a line of storms with a potential spin up...to me that should always be a severe t storm watch with different wording

This event if nothing else has just opened my eyes to a few things....I don't know that I can remember a strong long track tornado in a 2% area or a violent tornado in practically the 0% area.....it still is fascinating to me that this occurred. I guess any supercell really can do what it wants to, no matter what the forecast zone really is

Online Eric

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #336 on: March 10, 2020, 08:46:10 AM »
Thing about the tornado watch, it already is a polygon.  I'm not sure why the entire county gets "watched" once one gets hoisted, but that's the way it comes across.  Maybe that's part of the issue.  For example:



This is the watch that was issued for Mid TN.  Notice the watch "box", especially the one across the Ozarks.  It's a watch polygon, very similar to the warning polygons. 
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline NashRugger

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #337 on: March 10, 2020, 02:30:51 PM »
All watch boxes show up like that when they're the one you've selected. I've seen multiple cases where some counties are within the lines of the SPC watch box but the local WFO is the deciding player as to specifically which counties they want in/out the watch, which is where you can also get coordinated localized extensions between the WFO and the SPC.

Getting down to carving watch boxes down to only portions of a county is most likely something that will not get implemented because that gets too fine of a scale for the SPC. That is why every watch box, regardless if SVR or TOR, is a coordinated effort.

Offline bugalou

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #338 on: March 10, 2020, 02:41:14 PM »

Getting down to carving watch boxes down to only portions of a county is most likely something that will not get implemented because that gets too fine of a scale for the SPC. That is why every watch box, regardless if SVR or TOR, is a coordinated effort.

Is it really though?  In this case for the TN system, putting a larger polygon around the I-40 corridor once the supercell track is seen seems fairly easy.  I am not saying it needs to be as tight as a TOR box, but tighter than the current watch boxes for tornadoes.  Tor watches would have much more value if they were working with windows within 2 hours and are issued after storms initiate.  The Severe Thunderstorm watch acts as the more general heads up before that.  Renaming it may be needed to avoid confusion and there is nothing preventing the normal use of PDS tags when a tstorm watch looks particularly nasty tornado wise.  I am really considering making an infographic that better explains what I am trying to say.

The watch/warning system hasn't been changed in 30+ years and IMO its old and tired and new ideas are needed even if my solution isn't it. 

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #339 on: March 10, 2020, 03:41:47 PM »
Is it really though?  In this case for the TN system, putting a larger polygon around the I-40 corridor once the supercell track is seen seems fairly easy.  I am not saying it needs to be as tight as a TOR box, but tighter than the current watch boxes for tornadoes.  Tor watches would have much more value if they were working with windows within 2 hours and are issued after storms initiate.  The Severe Thunderstorm watch acts as the more general heads up before that.  Renaming it may be needed to avoid confusion and there is nothing preventing the normal use of PDS tags when a tstorm watch looks particularly nasty tornado wise.  I am really considering making an infographic that better explains what I am trying to say.

The watch/warning system hasn't been changed in 30+ years and IMO its old and tired and new ideas are needed even if my solution isn't it.

There was an event several years ago and I have looked and looked for it. There was just ONE rogue tornado warned supercell and nothing else even on the radar I am wanting to say it was in Missouri or Illinois moving east, there was a tornado watch that was about 40 miles wide and extended east for about 150 miles because it was the only storm out there and nothing was going to compete with it.

I have to this day been unable to find it , but it was the weirdest watch I have ever seen , but it made perfect sense....if anybody is able to let me know the event I am talking about I would love to find it again lol
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 03:47:32 PM by gcbama »

Offline DocB

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #340 on: March 12, 2020, 12:35:04 PM »
NOAA put this site together with satellite imagery of the path.
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/nashville/index.html

Offline bugalou

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #341 on: March 12, 2020, 12:42:52 PM »
Due to the exceptional nature of this event, I am going to go ahead and move it to our "Hall of Fame".  Feel free to continue discussion and post additional information, links, etc.

Offline Jilly

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #342 on: March 12, 2020, 07:42:11 PM »
Putnam County Emergency Management Agency
@PutnamEMATN
Our hearts are with all who have lost family or friends in the Super Tuesday Tornado. Our hearts are especially heavy today as another victim (adult male) has passed away due to injuries sustained during these devastating storms, bringing the total number of fatalities to 19.
3:37 PM · Mar 12, 2020·Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/PutnamEMATN/status/1238202440283021312
WA4CZD

 

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