2010-2011 Winter weather outlook for Tennessee.

[Adam]

I know its early guys but im already hyped up for this winter, since I dont know that much about it yet i would like to hear all the members opinions on this upcoming winter. All i know is that i think we are going to have a mild El Nina. Correct me if i am wrong.

[JHart]

Moderate to strong La Nina winters (which some are forecasting) are not kind to southern snow lovers.  If it verifies, the only chill we are likely to get this winter will be standing in the frozen food section at Kroger.  

[Adam]

I thought that if it was a weak La nina it was perfect for snow.

[JHart]

The effects of weak La Ninas, like weak El Ninos are harder to predict.  In these events, other factors can have stronger effects.  I for one am interested in what effects this spring's Icelandic eruption will have.  High latitude eruptions can have a cooling effect on the northern hemisphere.  Last winter was one example... extra cooling came from the Mt. Redoubt eruption the year before.

[Curt]

The jury is still out on the stregnth of the La Nina. For now it looks moderate although it may be weakening through the winter months. The stronger it is usuallly correlates to a larger southeast ridge, meaning warm temps rule. However, there are other factors to consider that are unusual this winter with solar activity still at a minimun not to mention NAO, etc..

La Nina can offer some winter time weather as arctic fronts can stall in our area, leaving the Mid South in a battle zone. This can mean an increase in chance for ice, and also winter season severe. For winter weather lovers, hope it doesnt stregnthen too much. A weak La Nina can provide some great winter weather ala Jan 1985. Too strong....break out your shorts in January.

We do have a La Nina Watch thread going, but since we usually have a winter forecast section every year, I will repost my early thoughts from that thread. Bottom line, its waaay early to tell anything yet. Wait til September for a better shot at figuring this one out.

I wouldnt be so quick to write off winter wx in '10-11. With a declining moderate to strong La Nina there are some possibilites for winter weather lovers. Looks like this Nina may be somewhere between -1.0 to -1.5 and declining as the winter progresses. The best winters for most of our area usually occur in weaker to moderate La Nina's. The possibilities look to drop off when the Nina is less than -1.5. So if we can hold it to a moderate one, the chances are better to see some ice/snow. My bet is overall we will see our area in the clash zone for arctic fronts and mild/warm air. Severe season could certainly be more active, but we could see ice and snow during a period of colder weather. La Nina's seem to turn cold on a dime and stay thay way for a couple of weeks in which winter wx is certainly a possiblity.

Mod-Strong La Nina's since 1950

Year/ LN Stregnth and Peak)/ Snow adn Ice in inches at KMEM
49-50 (0.7) (declining) Trace
50-51 (1.0) (declining) 7.9in including one of the worst ice storms to hit the area
54-55 (1.0) (declining) 0.3in
55-56 (1.3) (declining) 5.2in
56-57 (0.5) (declining) Trace
62-63 (0.6) (declining) 5.0in
64-65 (0.8 ) (declining) 7.9in
67-68 (0.7) (increasing)23.8in
70-71 (1.3) (peak)9.3in
71-72 (0.7) (declining) 1.2in
73-74 (1.9) (declining) 1.6in major ice storm in January for Memphis
74-75 (0.6) (declining) 6.0in
75-76 (1.6) (declining) 0.4in
84-85 (0.9) (declining) 20.7in amazing winter snow totals in January
88-89 (1.7) (declining) 0.3in
95-96 (0.7) (declining) 0.4in this was a blockbuster winter for many, not KMEM
98-99 (1.4) (declining) 0.8in featured a tornado outbreak in January
99-00 (1.6) (declining)3.0in blockbuster snow for Arkansas- up to 18in in south AR
00-01 (0.6) (declining) 2.6in very cold December with ice and snow;Jan-Mar mild
07-08 (1.4) (declining) 7.0 March snowstorm for western half of TN/Super Tues outbreak
08-09 (0.8 ) (declining) 8.0 Late Feb-early March snowstorm

The most likely witner for modeling puposes would be 50-51, 54-55, 55-56, 70-71, 73-74, 98-99, 99-00, and 07-08. Some of those years were not at all bad in the snow department, and actually beat snow totals last year at Memphis and Nashville. Also, there were a couple of almost snowless winters as well.

Also interesting to note are the winters in the past where El Nino rapdily transitioned to La Nina which are 64-65, 70-71, 73-74, 88-89, 95-96, 07-08. All featured some winter storms except 88-89 in which there was little snow. Most of these winters also featured some arctic outbreaks and severe weather at times. So basically, we could see a little bit of everything next winter as an early prediction based on past history. Time will tell and we have a long way to go before I really can get into winter.

[Bruce]

well i say it again. look for a strong la nina, it will be a winter with big varations. go cold to warm in a quick period of time. but overall mainly warmer than average. and with the jet coming out of the pacific, those big time storms coming off the west coast could spell big time severe for us. i would be mainly concerned with the severe aspects of this winter than anything. in a la nina pattern, sometimes we get that late snow surprise like late feb. or early march. going to be interesting to say the least.

[StormNine]

I posted this on the La Nina Watch.  Severe Weather is a real possibility. 

Take our last four strongest La Nina events for Kentucky and Tennessee:

07-08: Featured the Epic Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak, Featured Jan 8th and 10th 2008 Severe WX, Featured High Wind Event on Jan. 29th. A Tornado on Jan. 7th touched down in Southeast Wisconsin.

99-00: Featured a Flooding/Tornado Outbreak on Jan, 3rd, 2000.  An F3 hit Owensboro Kentucky, and several hit around the Memphis CWA.  Also featured a few severe wx events in Feb. 2000.

98-99: Featured two twin severe weather outbreaks in Jan. 99.  One of the 17th, and another on the 21st-22nd.  Jackson TN, Dover TN, Clarksville TN, Camden TN, West Paducah KY, and several others get hit pretty hard.

88-89: Featured a Christmas Eve F4 Tornado in the Franklin/Brentwood TN area. 

  This doesn't mean that severe wx 100% will occur, but the pattern that is expected with a strong or even a moderate La Nina, could support severe weather/tornado events. 

  Also Ice is a concern.  Dec. 23rd-24th, 1998 Ice Storm,  The twin Ice Events across Western Kentucky in Feb. 2008, The Great Ice Storm of 1951, and there are a few others all occurred during a Moderate to Strong La Nina.  Typically when the active north stream, strong pacific jet, and a pesky Southeast Ridge collide, there is a battlezone.  Often our area is in that zone during these nina winters.

[Memphis Weather]

The jury is still out on the stregnth of the La Nina. For now it looks moderate although it may be weakening through the winter months. The stronger it is usuallly correlates to a larger southeast ridge, meaning warm temps rule. However, there are other factors to consider that are unusual this winter with solar activity still at a minimun not to mention NAO, etc..

La Nina can offer some winter time weather as arctic fronts can stall in our area, leaving the Mid South in a battle zone. This can mean an increase in chance for ice, and also winter season severe. For winter weather lovers, hope it doesnt stregnthen too much. A weak La Nina can provide some great winter weather ala Jan 1985. Too strong....break out your shorts in January.

We do have a La Nina Watch thread going, but since we usually have a winter forecast section every year, I will repost my early thoughts from that thread. Bottom line, its waaay early to tell anything yet. Wait til September for a better shot at figuring this one out.

Unfortunately all the data I'm seeing is indicating this will be quite the strong La-Nina and it will last well through the winter and may even peak during winter. Hopefully that data ends up wrong...

[Curt]

Unfortunately all the data I'm seeing is indicating this will be quite the strong La-Nina and it will last well through the winter and may even peak during winter. Hopefully that data ends up wrong...

Yeah I actually saw some conflicting info this week that makes me a little more suspect of a sustained strong nina, but honestly, its still July. Its quite a long range forecast at this point. If data points to a strong la nina in October however....

[Crockett]

Looks like we may have to sacrifice this winter for a potentially good winter in 2011-2012.

[StormNine]

From Weather Underground:  This is from KHOP(Fort. Campbell Kentucky)

Here are some great examples of La Nina months. You can see as you look at the temps.  About the cold on the dime, the battleground between cold and hot, and how bizarre the flip flopping can be.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHOP/1998/12/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
^^ Dec. 1998^^

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHOP/1999/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar
^^ Jan. 1999^^

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHOP/2008/2/1/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar
^^ Feb. 2008^^

[Curt]

Good info SN. Dec '98 featured a nasty sleet storm 3 days before Christmas which was still on the ground at Christmas. The next month featured a major tornado outbreak. And we all know what Feb-Mar '08 was like...ST tornado outbreak followed by a snowstorm.

La nina offers a much wider variety of weather than El nino to me. Depending on how the battle zone sets up we could see quick changes from warm to arctic blasts with everything in between, including ice, snow and severe weather.

[Adam]

I was looking up disscussions about this years winter and i heard that the storm track was going to be slightly northward. If thats correct than it will be perfect this year. But i have no idea where i heard this so dont bombard me if im wrong.

[Charles L.]

I was looking up disscussions about this years winter and i heard that the storm track was going to be slightly northward. If thats correct than it will be perfect this year. But i have no idea where i heard this so dont bombard me if im wrong.

With a very good indication of a moderate to strong La Nina...a "good" winter is not in my thinking. We will have to deal with severe weather over winter weather for much of the winter period, IMO.

The forecast looks bleak for the snow lovers (which includes me).

[Bruce]

a storm track to our north isnt good for snow lovers. that could spell severe big time if that happens, all according to the conditions.