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Author Topic: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2  (Read 149789 times)

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Offline toastido

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2010, 11:12:49 AM »
Friday-Friday Night and potentially Saturday are looking more and more interesting and concerning to me...especially from West TN Westward in this immediate area. All modes of severe would be possible with a directionally-sheared profile and favorable hodographs...juxtaposed with 1000-2000 MLCAPE Values and rather steep mid-level lapse rates.

Still some details to be ironed out regarding development/strength/track of surface low to the NW...and whatever happens Friday will greatly impact any potential Saturday. Right now SPC/MEG look spot-on with my thoughts for Friday at this time...so refer to their outlooks for more.

Depending on how things go on the home front, I might be out chasing around your area this weekend.  I refuse to chase alone, so it kinda depends on if my chase partner follows through.
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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2010, 11:58:19 AM »
We may be seeing you around the region then, toastido ;)

You guys know I was never a fan of last weekend for a really big event in this region...I'm getting a much different feeling about this one...to be honest...though admittedly it may be more AR than this state taking the brunt. That's close enough...especially considering the MEG CWA. Obviously there is still room for change and forecast/modeling error one way or another...

Saturday would have more of the state possibly in a severe weather threat...but what happens there may be heavily dependent again on what happens Friday.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2010, 12:22:08 PM »
I sure hope that the GFS is having some feedback problems. It now has the precip max right over the Chattanooga area. And it is back up to over 7 inches. I need the rain, but not all at once!
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2010, 12:47:39 PM »
Here is the 1 AM 250mb windspeed map from this morning's GFS...basically plotting the upper level jet...



This screams trouble for AR...West TN...and North MS...maybe into SE MO...W KY as well...split upper flow...the Midsouth right in the Left Front Quadrant of the Southern Stream...climatologically speaking...this look is associated with evening tornado outbreaks in the MidSouth. MLCAPE values at this time still over 1000 j/kg...surface winds have veered a little...but still SSE...while remaing WSW to SW aloft...the low level jet at over 60kts...it appears on the GFS a pre-frontal trough is working into East Arkansas...which would be the focal point for superells at that point...spreading into the area.

This is all model data...and may be honestly 100% wrong...but this is exactly the type of stuff I was looking for last weekend up this way and never did see...
« Last Edit: April 28, 2010, 12:49:36 PM by Memphis Weather »

Offline CT_Yankee

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2010, 01:28:23 PM »
This is all model data...and may be honestly 100% wrong...but this is exactly the type of stuff I was looking for last weekend up this way and never did see...


You seemed more "skeptical" with the last system though....or maybe that's just my read.
Aaron
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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2010, 01:31:10 PM »

You seemed more "skeptical" with the last system though....or maybe that's just my read.
That's because I was. I was never convinced of a big event in this area with that system. This one...while there's no way to say 100% right now...has vastly different potential in my mind right now...at least for West TN. Not ready to commit for Middle/East sections as that's more for Saturday...and much more in question I think.

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2010, 01:34:54 PM »
FWIW...I've changed the topic title to better reflect the emerging threat potential for Friday-Saturday...this may be extended/further adjusted as necessary.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2010, 02:02:35 PM »

You seemed more "skeptical" with the last system though....or maybe that's just my read.

He meant that the kinds of signals he's seeing now for the system this weekend... was what he was looking for in order to be on board for the significant severe weather threat last weekend, which he didn't see at the time, in spite of what the SPC and other offices were saying.

But, he sees it now with the system this weekend.  Just to help clarify.  :)
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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2010, 02:06:06 PM »
He meant that the kinds of signals he's seeing now for the system this weekend... was what he was looking for in order to be on board for the significant severe weather threat last weekend, which he didn't see at the time, in spite of what the SPC and other offices were saying.

But, he sees it now with the system this weekend.  Just to help clarify.  :)
You obviously read into that post much better than I did...thanks.  :D

Offline toastido

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2010, 05:37:59 PM »
From HUN:

Quote
000
FXUS64 KHUN 281948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA THIS PAST WEEKEND. W/SW FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SET UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

OTHER THAN THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD THAT WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AND
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST...RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE REGION AS THE SWRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES...
NEARING THE 80-DEGREE MARK. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE SREF SHOWS PRECIP AFFECTING THE
AL/MS STATE LINE IN NW AL AROUND 15Z FRIDAY WHEREAS THE GFS SPREADS
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. A QUICK GLANCE AT MOS
GUIDANCE HINTS AT POPS AS EARLY AS 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
OPTIONS...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z
ON FRIDAY ATTM.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /40KT/ ACROSS THE AREA...THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...THOUGH A REPEAT OF LAST WEEKEND`S SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED
. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMICS WILL
PREDOMINATELY SET UP JUST THE WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS NRN MS...SO
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...BUT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY.


THE ATTENTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TURNS TO THE STALLING
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE AREA. AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A GLANCE AT THE HPC 5-DAY PRECIP GRAPHIC
PAINTS A 6 INCH BULLSEYE IN NE MS...AND THIS ONLY INCLUDES TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY
. PWATS DURING THIS TIME ARE ABOVE 2 INCHES AND STRONG
SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE HIGHER THAN 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE 5-DAY PERIOD OF SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA LAKES
AND RIVERS. AN ESF WILL BE ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPACTS FROM THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM AND WORDING WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE HWO.

BEYOND THE NEVER-ENDING RAINFALL OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK...
DRY WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2010, 06:03:08 PM »
OHX mentioned in their afternoon AFD that this weekend is the start of a "wet pattern".

Things are looking more a more volatile for us, still looks like the western areas of TN will be under the gun and Friday is, "the big day" but enough instability will be around for a severe day for us it appears.
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2010, 07:10:20 PM »
So I am going to six flags in atlanta this weekend. I can go either saturday or sunday. Based on the current forecast, which day should I go? Or should I plan on taking the GF shopping indoors instead?
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Offline toastido

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2010, 07:10:58 PM »
So I am going to six flags in atlanta this weekend. I can go either saturday or sunday. Based on the current forecast, which day should I go? Or should I plan on taking the GF shopping indoors instead?

I'd say Sat. is your best bet.  System likely won't make it that far east until Sunday.
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Offline Sbeagles

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #28 on: April 28, 2010, 07:26:15 PM »
I would go saturday being that far east. You should also consider having to go shopping!! I don't think anyone really enjoys that it's just women's way to torment men.

Offline Matt Brawner

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #29 on: April 28, 2010, 09:35:37 PM »
Too early for the Severe Weather predicting, but this is pretty sure.... it is going to be WET!!! QPF painting some big totals for areas in the South/  ::rain::
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