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Author Topic: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2  (Read 149793 times)

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Offline CT_Yankee

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CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 4/30-5/2
« on: April 26, 2010, 08:01:06 PM »
 ;D
« Last Edit: May 03, 2010, 04:55:48 AM by Thundersnow »
Aaron
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2010, 08:06:08 PM »
nice job ct. a topic i think will be talked about quite a bit, weather it be for floodiing issues, or some severe, or even both. ::applause::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline toastido

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2010, 08:47:09 PM »
 ::rofl::

SOME type of weather is ALWAYS possible. Good job on the "uncertainty"  >:D
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servocrow

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2010, 07:09:36 AM »
Vague...yet..the most accurate forecast I've ever come across.

 ::bacon::  ::evillaugh::

Offline toastido

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2010, 07:32:40 AM »
On a cursory glance this morning, it appears QPFs may have backed off a little..  Albeit slightly (still ranging in the 2.5-5" range), it's still better than the earlier progged totals..

Also, it appears the severe possibilities are shifting further N/NW thanks in part to a weak high pressure system building in by mid-week.

EDIT: Added BUFR sounding for 5/1/10 @ 4pm CDT when the instability is highest.  Doesn't look very severe....  I'd post for Nashville, but the numbers are even less impressive, with the exception of QPF being slightly higher.

« Last Edit: April 27, 2010, 07:49:03 AM by toastido »
Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in a while, nine out of ten people couldn't start a conversation.
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Adam: Girls come and go. Weather is constant
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Offline Cameron K.

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2010, 11:12:46 AM »
I guess I would be more currious about the 2nd as far as severe weather goes. Still out a bit, but what would be your thoughts on the 2nd low to form in the gulf states and track north-northeast. To me that looks interesting, but I have no clue about the dynamics yet.
Don't knock the weather, nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
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Offline Cameron K.

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2010, 11:28:34 AM »
Looking at some of the dynamics on 12z GFS now. It seems like they stay off to our west in AR, eastern TX, and LA. If it were to stay that way I suppose the SPC would release a slight risk for that area at most.
Don't knock the weather, nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
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Offline toastido

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2010, 01:10:54 PM »
Guys/Gals:

Let's keep on topic for this weekends system.

The stuff coming through today is wrap-around from the previous system.
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Offline toastido

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2010, 05:18:20 PM »
From HUN:

Quote
000
FXUS64 KHUN 272024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 PM CDT TUE APR 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NOW OVER ERN TN WITH TROF AXIS APPROACHING
THE AL/GA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/LOW FREEZING LEVELS WE
HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. WE
ALSO HAD A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN SOME STRONGER CELLS.

TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA GOING FOR
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ALL PCPN TO END BY 10
PM...NO SVR WX. AGAIN PEA HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY.

REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST...WENT MAINLY WITH THE GFS. THE BOTTOM
LINE ATTM LOOKS LIKE A CDFNT WILL STALL OUT FROM CENTRAL AR THRU
WRN KY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...DUE TO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SERN COAST AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STALLED
FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SVR WX WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
. THEN MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
SUNDAY MAY BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT
...AS THE CDFNT IS PROGGED
BY GFS TO BE OVER THE TN VALLEY. THEN BY MONDAY THE CDFNT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA. ON TUESDAY A SFC WAVE SHOULD
MOVE INTO GA TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT.

HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST IS LOW...BUT ATTM IT
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED/STORMY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

Interesting.. I didn't see any parameters that suggested much at all in the way of severe...
Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in a while, nine out of ten people couldn't start a conversation.
Kin Hubbard
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Adam: Girls come and go. Weather is constant
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Eric (Admin): there's no fornication in meteorology

Offline Charles L.

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2010, 05:33:22 AM »
SPC has most of middle TN in a Day 4 risk zone and on the Day 3 slight risk...they are thinking about upgrading to MDT in later outlooks. The MDT zone almost looks like the identical spot they put it last Friday.

This event doesn't concern me as bad as last weekend did, problem is though that the models have been increasing instability each run and if that continues...then I will be more concerned.

But it almost will be a deja vu type scenario. We will have heavy rain around and possibly "junk convection", but once that clears out...we may see things "light up" a bit.
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Offline Eric

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2010, 08:27:49 AM »
I bet AR gets in on the action this time.  GFS progs CAPE values ~2000+j/kg and they appear to be underneath the best upper level support.  As for us...I don't know.  H7 really never drys out until the front passes, however, CAPE values and Tds are supportive of strong convection.   ::pondering::
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servocrow

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2010, 08:48:08 AM »


Quote
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CDT WED APR 28 2010
  
   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
  
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT BY EARLY DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ THE UPPER PATTERN
   WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BROAD DOUBLE VORTEX POSITIVE TILT UPPER
   TROUGH WITH ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
   LAKES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
   THE FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
   LAYER WINDS. GFS...ECMWF AND MOST MREF MEMBERS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT
   IMPULSE NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE LOWER MS...TN
   AND OH VALLEYS MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIGRATORY LOW
   LEVEL JET. THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
   OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELINEATED RISK AREA.  
  
   BEYOND DAY 4 MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE RESULTING IN
   DECREASING PREDICTABILITY.

« Last Edit: April 28, 2010, 09:34:13 AM by servocrow »

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2010, 09:28:31 AM »
*Note:  Day 4 info cannot be retrieved from the Archive Page -- Picture will likely change*

You can get the extended 4-8 day graphic archives.  You just have to go about it a different way.  On the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook page, there's a "Get Outlooks" button at the bottom of the page that allows pulling outlooks by date from the archives.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2010, 09:31:05 AM by Thundersnow »
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servocrow

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2010, 09:31:49 AM »
You can get the extended 4-8 day graphic archives.  You just have to go about it a different way.  On the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook page, you click the "Get Outlooks" button at the bottom of the page with the date you want to pull from the archives.

 ::doh::

I blame the meds.


 ::guitar::

I hear banjo music...being played by a guitar....    ::whistling::



There...changed..
« Last Edit: April 28, 2010, 09:33:50 AM by servocrow »

Memphis Weather

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Re: *SWM* SEVERE WEATHER: 4/30 - 5/2
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2010, 10:44:07 AM »
Friday-Friday Night and potentially Saturday are looking more and more interesting and concerning to me...especially from West TN Westward in this immediate area. All modes of severe would be possible with a directionally-sheared profile and favorable hodographs...juxtaposed with 1000-2000 MLCAPE Values and rather steep mid-level lapse rates.

Still some details to be ironed out regarding development/strength/track of surface low to the NW...and whatever happens Friday will greatly impact any potential Saturday. Right now SPC/MEG look spot-on with my thoughts for Friday at this time...so refer to their outlooks for more.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2010, 10:47:48 AM by Memphis Weather »

 

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