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Author Topic: Great Snowstorm of 2009 (2/28-3/1)  (Read 72047 times)

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Offline OakRidgeWinter

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #30 on: February 27, 2009, 11:59:40 AM »
atlanta a foot? really?

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #31 on: February 27, 2009, 12:00:49 PM »
Nothing is set in stone with this system yet.  We're still in play.

And, I seriously doubt Atlanta gets a foot.

Parts of central North Carolina, on the other hand, might...

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #32 on: February 27, 2009, 12:24:56 PM »
The euro is officially my new best friend. just heard on eastern that it buries east tn, nw al, n ga, and all of nc. certainly not set in stone, but I have to like that trend. maybe the epic fail model (formerly known as the 12z GFS) will see the light. Go euro Go!

EDIT: about 1 inch qpf for most of east tn. deformation band sets up over the plateau and wallops us. I'm trying to temper my utter joy at this because its almost certainly too good to be true
« Last Edit: February 27, 2009, 12:34:41 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline lyngo

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #33 on: February 27, 2009, 12:32:24 PM »
Folks, it will soon be "nowcast" time.  Upper level lows are notorious for throwing curveballs so take each model for what it's worth.  All will depend on exact track and who gets lucky enough to be under the heavier bands of snow as it rotates through.  My question is how much QPF does this thing spit out?  It will be a fun one to watch over the next 2 days!   ::coffee::

Offline Heath22

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #34 on: February 27, 2009, 12:46:12 PM »
Folks, it will soon be "nowcast" time.  Upper level lows are notorious for throwing curveballs so take each model for what it's worth.  All will depend on exact track and who gets lucky enough to be under the heavier bands of snow as it rotates through.  My question is how much QPF does this thing spit out?  It will be a fun one to watch over the next 2 days!   ::coffee::

I hope this one has a big curveball. Otherwise we here in Middle will miss out.
John 3:16

Offline snowdog

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #35 on: February 27, 2009, 12:51:01 PM »
The euro is officially my new best friend. just heard on eastern that it buries east tn, nw al, n ga, and all of nc. certainly not set in stone, but I have to like that trend. maybe the epic fail model (formerly known as the 12z GFS) will see the light. Go euro Go!

EDIT: about 1 inch qpf for most of east tn. deformation band sets up over the plateau and wallops us. I'm trying to temper my utter joy at this because its almost certainly too good to be true

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I'd be very cautious in getting your hopes up.  Temps are going to be a struggle.  As you can see Chatty is warm by a long shot.  Bad thing is the Euro comes in 24 hr increments so you dont really know when your temps look good vs how much moisture is left.  Looks like the ULL goes from Central Ark to Atlanta. 

« Last Edit: February 27, 2009, 01:00:24 PM by snowdog »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #36 on: February 27, 2009, 12:57:38 PM »
this run of the euro splits the ULL and parks the stronger portion of it DIRECTLY over my head. if that were to verify, the cold air should come with it. but this is an outlier solution (and an odd one at that). I'm excited about this run, but I know the chances of it going down like that are slim. but still . ...  ::fingerscrossed::
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Storm Central

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #37 on: February 27, 2009, 01:20:40 PM »
The euro is officially my new best friend. just heard on eastern that it buries east tn, nw al, n ga, and all of nc. certainly not set in stone, but I have to like that trend. maybe the epic fail model (formerly known as the 12z GFS) will see the light. Go euro Go!

EDIT: about 1 inch qpf for most of east tn. deformation band sets up over the plateau and wallops us. I'm trying to temper my utter joy at this because its almost certainly too good to be true

 ::snowman:: ::wow:: ::guitar::

Offline Cameron K.

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2009, 01:31:05 PM »
I have been looking at the high resolution model. It makes a very detailed forecast, which is why it only goes up to 48hrs. Here's a look a simulation reflectivity. This would be all snow I believe.


Don't knock the weather, nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
-  Kin Hubbard

Offline Sbeagles

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2009, 01:34:49 PM »
That would look be good for west and western middle if that were to verify.

Offline Eric

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #40 on: February 27, 2009, 01:35:52 PM »
I have been looking at the high resolution model. It makes a very detailed forecast, which is why it only goes up to 48hrs. Here's a look a simulation reflectivity. This would be all snow I believe.




Correct.  Surface temps look to be freezing clean down to the TN/AL line.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline Curt

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #41 on: February 27, 2009, 01:46:22 PM »
EURO buries me in East TN. oh please be right  ::snowman::

Gives me almost 1 FOOT.

How do you know it gives you a foot?

Offline Matt

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #42 on: February 27, 2009, 01:47:41 PM »
The Weather Channel shows 3-6" of snow for most of Middle Tennessee. Being as conservative as they are, seems a little premature. I foresee possibly that much east and south of here, but not here.  ::shrug::

Offline Sbeagles

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #43 on: February 27, 2009, 01:51:56 PM »
The Weather Channel shows 3-6" of snow for most of Middle Tennessee. Being as conservative as they are, seems a little premature. I foresee possibly that much east and south of here, but not here.  ::shrug::
Was just about to say something about the Weather Channels outlook says most of Tennessee could see "several inches." WKRN have been very assertive in their view of the system.

Offline Eric

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Re: Upcoming snow for Saturday?
« Reply #44 on: February 27, 2009, 01:53:19 PM »
Euro puts down 0.5-1" of liquid precip across N. AL and N. GA. 1" of liquid precip over Eastern TN

Posted on Talkweather.com

You need to quantify your statement.  What times?  What are the temps?  I think I read what you read and instead of using the 10:1 ratio, they were using a 6-8:1 ratio, which given it all falls as snow will be 6-8 inches.  Honestly, the only folks I believe see a foot are the folks in the mountains of NC and SC...not East TN.  Could I be wrong...sure, it's happened before.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

 

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