Wintry Weather, Feb 2-3

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

I have been looking on here for a few months now and to be honest have learned a few things…like all of you I like weather and I think it’s because it’s something that we can’t control. Having said that let me give you some history about myself…I’m an engineer and work in the industrial side of it. I have been doing that for some 30 years now and have been all over the world doing it….it’s been a lot of fun. But weather ALWAYS draws my attention because, like I said, we can’t control it. Well lets be honest…we can’t predict it either…at least with any honest long term (2 days?) statements. That’s OK…and I hope we never do get to that point. I’m sure if we do then we’ll try to control it as well (yes, we have tried but nothing doing…lol) . Anyway my point is I enjoy your conversations (I was young once myself …no school!) and I really have learned a thing or two but let me pass this on…models are just that…not the real thing. Our models (from what your saying to me) are based on what knowledge we have about the sciences and the history based on the past patterns. Well take this with a grain of salt but if no two snowflakes are the same then how does it warrant we can predict weather based on previous actions. No one can show me what the next snow flake will look like based on the previous ones. It’s fun to try but having said that I guess it’s good to know who really is in charge! 

Welcome to the forum Ed...EXCELLENT CONTRIBUTION!!!..

...and it is good to know who is in charge.

[Yazoo63]

But, one thing I'm fairly confident on is that the maps for that period will look quite a bit different from what we're seeing right now.

For what it's worth, Henry Margusity over at Accuweather has stated that the current trend of the models is garbage (the low tracking due east and staying over the gulf).

He's sticking to his idea that the track may go through Augusta, GA up through northern Virginia maybe.

I hope for his sake that he's right ... since he was wearing his "big daddy" ball cap yesterday and touting the "big daddy storm", even using the "b" word, and calling it the "little brother" of the '93 storm.

He stands to end up with some serious egg on his face (and lose some credibility) if the current model trends continue.

[dave]

Everyone. Remain. Calm.  Ed echoes the point I made a couple of weeks ago - we can't control what the weather does, so don't stress out over it.  Find something wrong in the world that you have the power to right, and focus your mental energy on that instead.

Personally, I believe most folks east of Jackson (TN) get measurable snow out of this system.  Whether it's 1 inch or 4, if you like snow be thankful for what you get and don't fret over it.  If you don't like snow, it will melt within a couple of days.  Myself, I'm ready for spring. 

Model flip flop should settle down by this time tomorrow... and I'd bet the GFS moves back westward.

[Cameron K.]

Exactly. I'll take just enough to coat the ground I can go sleding. But hopefully that won't happen and we stay dry and cold.  I did this during the March of 08 event and I think it worked. 

[BRUCE]

i hope it does trend back to the west, i want more snow here in jackson.

[maryvillereb2003]

i hope it does trend back to the west, i want more snow here in jackson.

it will trend west and it will get stronger IMO

[Beth]

Exactly. I'll take just enough to coat the ground I can go sleding. But hopefully that won't happen and we stay dry and cold.  I did this during the March of 08 event and I think it worked. 

It certainly did work. And I loved that snow! 

[BRUCE]

i just got off work and seen the latest gfs, its most def. smoking some good sh-t. i think things go back for tonites run like yesterday or close to it. tomorrow even better. i still think we could even see two storms phase some were across the sout east.  

[Sbeagles]

IF things swing back our way, and we have this low travel across central Georgia and up the apps are we back into the conversation we was having yesterday with those unbelievable numbers or will it be scaled down somewhat??

[Brandon]

Should not be major high totals, but a good thump if models go back to what they originally were.

[BRUCE]

i would be a much better track for most of tn if it weeent through central ga. and up the apps, especiall here in west tn. far as the big number on accumulation, depends if the low can bomb out pretty good while riding up the apps.

[The Poster Formerly Known as Kailynleto]

i just got off work and seen the latest gfs, its most def. smoking some good sh-t. i think things go back for tonites run like yesterday or close to it. tomorrow even better. i still think we could even see two storms phase some were across the sout east.  

Part of this is going right into my sig!

But I would wait until the 0z on Saturday night before I make any calls with this one.

[Eric]

So appropriate for the situation... 

It'd been a whole lot funnier if it hadn't already been posted.

[Eric]

For what it's worth, Henry Margusity over at Accuweather has stated that the current trend of the models is garbage (the low tracking due east and staying over the gulf).

He's sticking to his idea that the track may go through Augusta, GA up through northern Virginia maybe.

I hope for his sake that he's right ... since he was wearing his "big daddy" ball cap yesterday and touting the "big daddy storm", even using the "b" word, and calling it the "little brother" of the '93 storm.

He stands to end up with some serious egg on his face (and lose some credibility) if the current model trends continue.

I didn't know Margusity had any credibility TO lose...

[BRUCE]

personally i think the low still has a shot to take a track towards atlanta, or just east of it. any other gut feelings out there, i dont see it going due seast out to sea and stayinig along the gulf.