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Author Topic: 17" of rain???  (Read 1137 times)

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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17" of rain???
« on: October 06, 2008, 08:41:11 PM »
I know this is in our neck of the woods, but check out our AFD:

Quote
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED THEIR RECENT TREND OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA
AS Q-G FORCING INTERACTS WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE MOS AND SREF POP ARE UNANIMOUSLY VERY HIGH
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12 UTC ECMWF IMPLIES
THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A SLOWLY-
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS SCENARIO SEEMS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE...IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WE USED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET/SREF POP FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT UNDERCUT
THIS CONSENSUS SLIGHTLY IN CASE THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE QPF
COMING FROM THE GFS IS INTERESTING...AS THE GFS SOLUTION FORECASTS
ABOUT 17 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
USUALLY SUCH QPF BULLSEYES FEED BACK INTO
THE GFS WIND AND MASS FIELDS...BUT NOT THIS TIME. FOR NOW WE WILL
ASSUME THIS IS A SPURIOUS FEATURE AND RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF
ECMWF AND NAM QPF. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SBCAPE AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR MAY JUST BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING AN END TO THE RAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE ECMWF NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. (THE NAM IS NOW
MUCH SLOWER THAN BOTH MODELS). SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
KEEP SOME QPF OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY...SO WE LEFT A POP OF 40
PERCENT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

Offline Clay

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Re: 17" of rain???
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2008, 08:53:47 PM »
Forgot you were in FL for a split second. Thought those were for Nashville!   ::wow::  ::rain::::bangingheadintowall::

 

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