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Author Topic: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008  (Read 114303 times)

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #45 on: February 01, 2008, 12:35:42 PM »
I was just told of a meeting that I must attend on the morning of the 5th.  Can we expect the fireworks to start popping during the early afternoon hours, or is this going to be an all day affair?

Timing differs on models. We'll just have to see and probably won't have any specific time nailed down until Sunday.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #46 on: February 01, 2008, 12:52:35 PM »
Is there any agreement with the models in all of this as of yet?
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #47 on: February 01, 2008, 03:43:31 PM »
Had a little time to really look at the model runs. As the models show right now, the event would start from AR into MO in the Tues. morning to early afternoon hours. From noon on Tuesday until squall line development around 6pm, TN looks to be in the bullseye for this one. 700mb VV, 700mb winds, 850 mb LLJ streak, SB CAPEs ~500, theta-e advecting Tds of 60'F all point to MS/AL through TN into KY as having a very high potential for severe weather. GFS paints the LLJ over 50 kts directly over BNA with a 700mb wind of over 100 kts in area of divergence and veered (almost seems like they may become backed a bit by current model runs - have to watch this closely) that puts us directly under some seriously hazardous wind fields. We'll just have to see if the models continue to advertise such a solution. If they do, we're going to be in for a busy, busy day and I'm SURE that's what SPC sees as well. Don't forget if SPC issued a SWO right now as a Day 1 their criteria would already be met for a MDT risk area. I guarantee they're watching this one closely.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #48 on: February 01, 2008, 03:47:16 PM »
Sounds like Tuesday could be busy better get a back-up order of bacon ready.... ;)

Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #49 on: February 01, 2008, 03:59:22 PM »
Had a little time to really look at the model runs. As the models show right now, the event would start from AR into MO in the Tues. morning to early afternoon hours. From noon on Tuesday until squall line development around 6pm, TN looks to be in the bullseye for this one. 700mb VV, 700mb winds, 850 mb LLJ streak, SB CAPEs ~500, theta-e advecting Tds of 60'F all point to MS/AL through TN into KY as having a very high potential for severe weather. GFS paints the LLJ over 50 kts directly over BNA with a 700mb wind of over 100 kts in area of divergence and veered (almost seems like they may become backed a bit by current model runs - have to watch this closely) that puts us directly under some seriously hazardous wind fields. We'll just have to see if the models continue to advertise such a solution. If they do, we're going to be in for a busy, busy day and I'm SURE that's what SPC sees as well. Don't forget if SPC issued a SWO right now as a Day 1 their criteria would already be met for a MDT risk area. I guarantee they're watching this one closely.

OK, here's a simple mathematics equation for everyone.  CAPE values >500 + dewpoints >60 + 60 degree temps + 50kt LLJ with divergence and veering + other factors that I really don't understand and what does that equal? 

One helluva chase day! 
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #50 on: February 01, 2008, 05:17:25 PM »
SWEEEEEEEEEEET


Reminder - make sure your cellphone is fully charged! ;D
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #51 on: February 01, 2008, 08:42:53 PM »
I'll be driving my Titan I guess. It's a crew cab so plenty of room, and if we've got too many someone can always ride in the back. LOL.

I'll be driving myself and my Bo knows expertise. Everyone else is on their own.  ;D

Seriously though bring any cams and com devices you want and can bring. Never too much vid and pics shot during a chase.

I'm sure y'all will figure it out.




 ;)

This is the image I'm getting of this little adventure.  You better make sure have a second vehicle and backup Dorothy unit.  And, watch for flying cows!

 ;D
« Last Edit: February 01, 2008, 09:37:15 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #52 on: February 01, 2008, 09:08:06 PM »
BWAHAHAHA!!! TS!!!! LMAO!  ;D

Somebody start cutting Dr. Pepper cans up!
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline justinmundie

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #53 on: February 01, 2008, 10:14:54 PM »
It's going green.

Greenage.

We need to have a group viewing of twister.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Chelsea in Tn

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #54 on: February 01, 2008, 10:59:41 PM »
I love that movie. I remember when my 12 yo son was little - he had to be 2 or 3. The cow scene came up - he just sat there saying "Cow go round?". 

Okay not the best choice of movies for a little kid. It was too funny though.  It did not have to much of an effect - except maybe launch a (so far) life long interest in weather.

Now I need to go to netflix and order it. Might be good watching on Tuesday afternoon.
Chelsea

That’s what troubles me. This notion that we have to take sides in this country now, you’re either with us or against us, Republican or Democrat, red state or blue state. No one looks at an issue and struggles over the right position to take anymore. And yet, our ability to reason is what makes us human. Lately, we seem so willing to forfeit that gift of reason in exchange for the good feeling of belonging to a group. We all just take the position of our team.”
-Alan Shore (Boston le

Offline Reneezelle

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #55 on: February 01, 2008, 11:52:50 PM »
Yeah isn't it funny that I will honestly tell anyone that two of my favorite movies are TWISTER and....... Gone With The Wind.....

And Im soooo not kidding.

  hahahaha!   ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #56 on: February 02, 2008, 12:33:23 AM »
I'm sure y'all will figure it out.




 ;)

This is the image I'm getting of this little adventure.  You better make sure have a second vehicle and backup Dorothy unit.  And, watch for flying cows!

 ;D

ROFLMAO @ TS!!!!
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

RainCloudz

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #57 on: February 02, 2008, 02:16:38 AM »
 ;D  I hope this event does not coincide with my pedicure. drat.

servocrow

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #58 on: February 02, 2008, 08:09:59 AM »



Quote
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
   MAJOR FEATURES DAY 4 /TUESDAY FEB. 5/ -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
   ALOFT.  BOTH MODELS FORECAST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
   MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN ON
   EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF DAY 4 AS SURFACE LOW
   DEEPENS NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   WITH A SURFACE "BERMUDA"-TYPE HIGH FORECAST TO PERSIST...NWD RETURN
   OF GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS FAR N AS THE OH
   VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SUGGESTS AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ATTM IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
   INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 4 PERIOD.
   
   ALONG WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AMPLE INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
   THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WIND EVENT CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
   
   FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT -- WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
   ATLANTIC COAST DAY 5...GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD PREVAIL
   ACROSS THE CONUS THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
 

servocrow

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #59 on: February 02, 2008, 08:11:56 AM »
Quote
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 AM CST SAT FEB 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH W/O
AFFECTING THE AREA.

A STRONGER H5 WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUN NGT
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON TUE NGT. THIS KEEPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH WED AM. SELS DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
INCLUDES A CHANCE OF SVR FOR THE SERN US. THIS MOST LIKELY WOULD
INVOLVE THE MIDSTATE ON TUE/TUE EVE WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE AREA.

A WEAKER H5 WAVE PASSES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON THU
WITH A WEAKER IMPULSE ON FRI. THE MIDSTATE IS SORT OF ON THE CUSP
OF FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THIS TIME PERIOD.

MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT. MOS POP GUIDANCE SHOWED A
GOOD BIT OF DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER ON SUN/MON.
CHOSE A COMPROMISE PATH FOR POPS.

&&

 

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