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Author Topic: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008  (Read 111852 times)

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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #30 on: February 01, 2008, 09:04:06 AM »
I'm definitely ready. When the SPC issues it, I'm on the road.
How many people are fitting into what type of vehicle and who's bringing what?
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #31 on: February 01, 2008, 09:07:32 AM »
How many people are fitting into what type of vehicle and who's bringing what?

I'll be driving my Titan I guess. It's a crew cab so plenty of room, and if we've got too many someone can always ride in the back. LOL.

I'll be driving myself and my Bo knows expertise. Everyone else is on their own.  ;D

Seriously though bring any cams and com devices you want and can bring. Never too much vid and pics shot during a chase.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #32 on: February 01, 2008, 09:16:26 AM »
Anyone with a laptop and a wx radio would be a good idea, too.

And remember to bring your lunch money, kids.  :D
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #33 on: February 01, 2008, 09:18:11 AM »
Anyone with a laptop and a wx radio would be a good idea, too.

And remember to bring your lunch money, kids.  :D

Eric has a laptop. I have a wx radio. Just sold my scanner a few months ago to get a better trunking scanner though, so don't have one if someone else does.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #34 on: February 01, 2008, 09:29:42 AM »
Sorry, no scanner and my porta-ham radio has gone the way of the do do. :(
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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #35 on: February 01, 2008, 09:32:50 AM »
Yeah, I've got a laptop, camcorder, digital cam, and cell phone cam.  I think I might have a CB radio somewhere.  If we are planning on going, I might have to ride shotgun or ride in the back manning the hardware.  I make a pretty mean navigator too.  Oh have a GPS as well.
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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #36 on: February 01, 2008, 09:39:08 AM »
You already called shotgun.  I'm just going to be the freak in the back going "Ooooooo!!!!!  LOOKIT!!"
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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #37 on: February 01, 2008, 10:03:06 AM »
You already called shotgun.  I'm just going to be the freak in the back going "Ooooooo!!!!!  LOOKIT!!"

As you say that, I remember back to one of my favorite movies...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsDSgkrTbus
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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #38 on: February 01, 2008, 10:12:19 AM »
Pulled this from the NWS:

Quote
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
THE PERIOD SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Are they seeing something that everyone else isn't?  They seemed to be bullish on that fact yesterday, but why do a complete 180 today?  Surely models haven't changed THAT much...
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #39 on: February 01, 2008, 10:13:15 AM »
"Liability only."

LOL
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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #40 on: February 01, 2008, 10:13:34 AM »
Pulled this from the NWS:

Are they seeing something that everyone else isn't?  They seemed to be bullish on that fact yesterday, but why do a complete 180 today?  Surely models haven't changed THAT much...
:o

Wha....?!
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servocrow

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #41 on: February 01, 2008, 10:16:55 AM »
And the SPC this morning:

Quote
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST FRI FEB 01 2008
   
   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN U.S. DAY 3 IS EXPECTED TO
   BEGIN SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DAY 4...AND
   THEN EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DAY 5.
   
   THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY -- AND THUS
   TIMING -- WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL MUCH DEEPER
   AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND THE
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM.
   
   IN EITHER CASE...BOTH MODELS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
   CYCLONE INVOF ERN TX AT THE START OF THE DAY 5 PERIOD /TUESDAY FEB.
   5/...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   SHIFTS EWD/SEWD ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE MS VALLEY AND THE
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   SEVERAL DAYS OF GULF RETURN FLOW ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS STORM
   SYSTEM.  THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AMPLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   WILL EXIST
-- IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD --
   SUCH THAT A GOOD THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY EXIST.
   THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AT LEAST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND INTO THE SERN
   CONUS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR N AS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
   
   THREAT COULD LINGER INTO DAY 6 E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- PARTICULARLY
   IF THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION PROVES TO BE MORE CORRECT.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING A
   DAY 6 AREA ATTM...UNTIL TIMING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #42 on: February 01, 2008, 10:25:04 AM »
Would someone make up my mind, please?
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #43 on: February 01, 2008, 11:46:59 AM »
Huntsville is buying what SPC is selling:

Quote
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT PERIODS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER MAKERS THAT BARE WATCHING CLOSELY. THE FIRST TIME
FRAME IS SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
TO A LESSER DEGREE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXHIBITING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE NOGAPS ALSO JOINS THIS PARTY LINE. THE
NOGAPS ENSEMBLE/SREF/GFS ENSEMBLE/AND CMC EITHER HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
AXES SHIFTED OR HAVE LOWER OVERALL QPF WITH THESE EVENTS. AT ANY
RATE...WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF THIS TIME OUT WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BY
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

SEVERAL LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PRESENT DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDERWAY. WE WILL BE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX FORECAST OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...LLJ OF 40+ KTS DEVELOPS SUNDAY
NIGHT...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 930-670MB PRODUCING SATURATION...
PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING INTO THE 1.30-1.50 INCH RANGE...AND A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. INSTALLED LIKELY POPS
FROM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WEST OF I-65 SUNDAY...LIKELY NORTH OF
I-20 SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE IN THIS SAME AREA MONDAY. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXIST AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON TUESDAY. INSTALLED LIKELY POPS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE TO
SEVERE STORMS. WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE IN THE HWO.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Concerns: Feb 5-6
« Reply #44 on: February 01, 2008, 12:30:40 PM »
I was just told of a meeting that I must attend on the morning of the 5th.  Can we expect the fireworks to start popping during the early afternoon hours, or is this going to be an all day affair?
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

 

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